XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Holds $2.03, Analysts See 40% Rally Toward $3

Ripple (XRP-USD) Holds $2.03 as ETF Inflows Near $1 Billion, Traders Eye 40% Rally Toward $3.00

Institutional Demand and Technical Breakout Patterns Shape XRP’s December Outlook

Ripple’s XRP (XRP-USD) is trading near $2.03, down 0.9% on December 6, yet remains a central focus for traders as ETF inflows climb toward $1 billion. Despite recent volatility, data suggests institutional accumulation and tightening technical structures could define the next leg of XRP’s price movement.

Strong ETF Inflows Reinforce Institutional Accumulation

Since their launch, XRP ETFs have collectively absorbed $972 million in inflows, according to SoSoValue. Canary’s XRPC ETF leads with $363 million, followed by Grayscale GXRP ($211 million), Bitwise XRP ($187 million), and Franklin Templeton XRPZ ($134 million).

Daily inflows have stayed positive, with $10.2 million added on Friday alone. Analysts believe this consistent institutional demand, even during broader crypto weakness, signals an underlying structural shortage. As ETF issuers accumulate XRP off-exchange, liquidity tightens, setting the stage for sharp upside moves once demand spikes.

Analysts Warn of Hidden Supply Compression

Several market strategists argue that XRP’s available supply is far smaller than its nominal 60 billion circulating tokens. Analyst Zach Rector notes the tradable supply could be closer to 10 billion, while Jake Claver suggests private reserves may be nearly depleted.

If accurate, this implies that institutional demand from ETFs could rapidly drive a price breakout as available liquidity diminishes — a setup similar to Bitcoin’s pre-ETF accumulation phase. Ripple-focused researcher Bull Winkle described the dynamic as “pressure building under the surface,” warning that retail investors “won’t realize what’s happening until it’s too late.”

Technical Structure Points to a 40% Upside Potential

XRP’s chart forms a symmetrical triangle after retesting the $2.12 support zone, a level repeatedly defended since November 2024. A decisive weekly close above this threshold confirms market stability.

According to Brave New Coin analysis, a breakout above the triangle’s upper band could target $2.90–$3.00, a 40% gain from current levels. This aligns with the broader falling wedge reversal pattern visible on higher time frames, suggesting XRP’s corrective wave may be ending.

Technical strategist SergioRichi identifies a potential long setup at $2.02, targeting $2.37 in the short term (+17%), with stronger breakouts possible if momentum extends.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds Support Crypto Market Repricing

The broader crypto market context adds further support. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) holds near $89,800, Ethereum (ETH-USD) trades around $3,060, and overall risk appetite is improving ahead of a Federal Reserve rate cut expected at the December 9–10 FOMC meeting.

Lower rates historically fuel speculative asset rallies by reducing funding costs and increasing liquidity. Analysts at major desks argue that XRP’s combination of high ETF inflows, declining open interest, and easing policy expectations could create the ideal backdrop for a renewed rally into year-end.

Regulatory and Liquidity Factors Remain Key Risks

While bullish indicators dominate, risks persist. The recent $7.6 million liquidation of XRP futures positions underscores leveraged fragility. Additionally, broader altcoin weakness and declining futures open interest reflect caution across markets.

Regulatory developments also remain a factor. Although Ripple’s U.S. legal clarity improved after the SEC ruling confirmed XRP’s non-security status, ongoing policy debates around crypto ETFs and cross-border liquidity rules could still create short-term volatility.

Historical Divergences Signal Market Shifts

A new bullish RSI divergence has formed on the daily chart — a pattern previously followed by 37% to 174% rallies during prior XRP cycles (2018, 2021). The RSI recovery, paired with higher lows in price action, hints at an early transition from accumulation to breakout phase.

If XRP closes above $2.25–$2.30, it would confirm bullish continuation toward $3.00, while sustained closes below $1.85 would invalidate the setup and expose a potential retracement to $1.70.

Verdict — Buy Rating: Institutional Strength Meets Technical Recovery

XRP’s fundamentals and price structure align with a bullish bias. Strong ETF inflows, resilient $2.12 support, and historical divergence patterns all point toward an upside breakout.

Buy Zone: $1.95–$2.10
Target Range: $2.90–$3.00
Stop-Loss: Below $1.85
Bias: Bullish — institutional accumulation and technical compression favor a 35–40% upside into Q1 2026

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