XRP Price Forecast: XRP-USD Stuck Between $1.34 Support And $1.50 Ceiling

XRP Price Forecast – Compression Between $1.34 And $1.50 Before The Next Break

XRP-USD – From $1.14 Flush To $1.49 Snapback And Into A Nervous Range

XRP-USD has just run a full boom-and-bust cycle on a short timescale. Price collapsed to roughly $1.14, cleared out overleveraged longs, then ripped about 18% to trade near $1.49 within 24 hours. After that snapback, the market failed to build a sustained leg higher and slid back into the $1.35–$1.40 band.
Right now XRP-USD is circling $1.36–$1.40, well below the local ceiling around $1.50 but comfortably above the panic low near $1.12. That path—hard flush, forced liquidations, violent mean reversion, then drift—tells you this is still a leverage-driven market, not a clean spot-driven trend. The real decision zone is now clearly defined between support at $1.34–$1.35 and resistance at $1.45–$1.50.

XRP-USD – Short-Term Structure Around $1.34–$1.38 Support And $1.45–$1.50 Resistance

On the intraday chart, XRP-USD failed multiple attempts to hold above $1.50, rolled over below $1.45, and broke through $1.42 into a corrective structure. The pair is trading under $1.40 and beneath the 100-hour simple moving average, which confirms that short-term control is not with the buyers.
The last leg down cut through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the move from $1.1356 up to $1.5435, with price ultimately stabilizing around $1.34. That zone almost perfectly aligns with the 50% Fib area near $1.3380, which has now become the key tactical floor.
If XRP-USD holds above $1.3380–$1.34, this remains a standard corrective pullback inside a larger rebound attempt. A clear hourly close above $1.40 and the descending channel resistance around $1.4050 would be the first technical signal that downside pressure is starting to fade.

XRP-USD – Volatility Compression, Bollinger Bands And The 20-Day Line

On the daily timeframe, XRP-USD is sitting in the middle-to-lower part of its Bollinger Bands around $1.37–$1.38. The bands have started to narrow, which usually precedes a volatility expansion and a directional break. XRP no longer hugs the lower band, so the aggressive selling phase has cooled, but price is still pinned below the mid-band, which tracks close to the 20-day moving average just under the $1.45–$1.50 zone.
The upper Bollinger Band roughly overlaps with that $1.45–$1.50 resistance pocket. A daily close reclaiming the mid-band and pushing into the upper half of the bands would open the path toward $1.45, $1.50, and eventually the higher resistance cluster near the 50-day EMA around $1.78.
If XRP-USD loses the band mid-section and closes decisively below $1.35, the door reopens to a deeper retrace toward $1.28, then the prior structural shelf around $1.25, and finally the recent capitulation low at $1.12.

XRP-USD – Momentum Signals: RSI Divergence And MACD Turn

Momentum is the main reason some desks are willing to lean against the weakness. Between January 31 and February 11, XRP-USD posted a sequence of lower lows, while the Relative Strength Index on the 12-hour chart carved higher lows. That is textbook bullish divergence: price still drifts down, but the force behind the move is weakening.
A similar divergence appeared in late December 2025. Once XRP-USD regained the 20-period EMA on January 2, price accelerated into a move of more than 28%. The current setup is not a carbon copy, but the structure is familiar—persistent wicks on the downside, RSI rising out of oversold territory, and sellers losing momentum.
On the daily chart the RSI has recovered from oversold and is now sitting in the mid-30s. The MACD remains marginally bearish, but the negative histogram bars are shrinking, which shows the downside impulse is fading. A bullish cross of the MACD line back above its signal line while XRP-USD drives through $1.45–$1.50 would confirm that the next leg is up, not down.

XRP-USD – On-Chain Exchange Flows And Long-Term Holder Behavior

On-chain behavior explains why the technical rebound has not converted into a clean trending leg. Over the 30-day window, Exchange Net Position Change shows a violent swing in accumulation intensity. Around February 8, net outflows reached roughly 107 million XRP, signaling aggressive buying as coins were withdrawn from exchanges. By February 11, net outflows had collapsed to about 16 million XRP.
That is an 85% drop in the pace of exchange outflows in just a few days. Direction is still outward—supply is not rushing back onto exchanges—but the momentum behind that withdrawal has evaporated. The most aggressive spot buyers have already deployed capital; marginal demand has cooled.
Long-term wallets show the same pattern. Hodler Net Position Change, tracking holders of 155+ days, dropped from roughly 337 million XRP added on February 1 to about 128 million XRP by February 11, a reduction of more than 60%. These are usually the accounts that anchor rebounds. Right now they are still net buyers, but they are buying smaller size, reflecting caution rather than conviction.
In parallel, data from major venues shows XRP exchange reserves trending lower, which structurally reduces immediate sell-side supply. That is constructive over the medium term, but with net outflows slowing, the short-term impulse is muted. The market is past the worst of the dumping phase, yet it lacks a strong new wave of spot demand to force a sustained upside break.

XRP-USD – Derivatives Positioning, Liquidation Maps And Leverage Risk

The futures complex is still fragile and can amplify both directions. In the XRP/USDT perpetual market over a 30-day horizon, liquidation maps show nearly $148 million in short-side liquidation clusters versus about $83 million on the long side. Structurally, that means there is more forced buying ammunition sitting above price than forced selling below, which can fuel sharp short squeezes on positive catalysts.
Short-term maps tell a different story. On a one-day horizon on another major exchange, potential long liquidations are around $63.9 million, while shorts sit closer to $51 million—roughly 30% more exposure on the long side. That skew makes the current range inherently unstable: small downside moves can cascade into forced long closures and deepen selloffs.
The recent washout to $1.14 and rebound to $1.49 fit this pattern. Roughly $30 million in longs were liquidated during the dump, followed by about $26 million in short liquidations on the way up. Price did not respond to new information; it responded to the clearing of crowded positions.
Positioning ratios magnify the signal. On a large venue, the account-based long/short ratio for XRP is near 2.13, meaning there are more than twice as many accounts long as short. However, the top-trader positions ratio is about 0.73, showing that the largest accounts are net short. Smaller participants are leaning heavily bullish; bigger, better-capitalized players are positioned for more downside or prolonged chop. That imbalance is exactly why every attempt to rally into the mid-$1.40s is sold aggressively.

XRP-USD – ETF Flows, Open Interest And Market Participation

Listed products and aggregated Open Interest confirm that the market is in digestion mode, not expansion. XRP spot ETFs have stalled after a five-day streak of inflows. Daily flows have flattened at zero, leaving cumulative inflows near $1.23 billion and total net assets under management around $993 million. That is not a rejection of XRP, but it is a clear pause in fresh institutional capital.
On the derivatives side, futures Open Interest has dropped to about $2.31 billion from $2.44 billion in a single day and continues to trend down from the $10.94 billion peak registered in July. Shrinking OI plus flat ETF flows means leverage is being unwound faster than it is rebuilt. In this environment, price responds more to local positioning pockets than to a broad wall of new money.

XRP-USD – Fundamentals, Community Day And Tokenization Narrative

Underneath the noise, the structural story for XRP-USD is not deteriorating. XRP Community Day has pushed the XRP Ledger (XRPL) ecosystem back into focus, highlighting developer activity, protocol updates, and ongoing community engagement instead of a single hyped announcement. In a consolidation phase, this kind of visibility and narrative support matters; it keeps attention on XRPL’s real use cases rather than just the ticker.
At the same time, a new tokenization partnership with Aviva Investors anchors a tangible institutional angle. Ripple is working with the UK insurer and investment manager to explore fund tokenization on XRPL, part of a broader push to bring real-world assets on-chain. XRP-USD currently trades slightly above $1.40 as that story develops, with Ripple expanding across the UK and Europe in parallel.
While neither Community Day nor the tokenization deal has triggered an immediate vertical move, both tighten the link between the XRPL and real-world flows. When the market eventually rotates back into risk-on mode, assets with live institutional initiatives and active ecosystems typically reprice faster and harder than purely speculative names.

XRP-USD – Key Support Zones At $1.35, $1.28 And $1.12

From a risk map perspective, $1.37–$1.38 is the first soft cushion, but the real structural floor for XRP-USD sits at $1.35–$1.34. That area combines the recent local low, the $1.3380 50% Fibonacci retracement, and a significant concentration of long liquidations just below $1.34. As long as daily closes hold above that band, the pullback can still be classified as a pause within a broader recovery.
If XRP-USD breaks and closes below $1.3380–$1.34, liquidations are likely to accelerate, dragging price into the $1.2920 region first. A failure there exposes the October support around $1.25 and the recent capitulation low near $1.12. With ETF flows paused and Open Interest falling, a temporary overshoot toward the $1.00 area is a non-zero risk in a stress scenario, especially if broader crypto sentiment deteriorates.

XRP-USD – Upside Targets At $1.45, $1.50 And $1.78

On the topside, the first pivot is the $1.40–$1.4050 band. A clean break through the short-term channel resistance there would open a move toward $1.45, then $1.4650, which acts as the first serious trap zone for late buyers.
The critical pivot remains $1.50. That level coincides with the 20-day moving average, the Bollinger mid-to-upper band area, and a cluster of previous rejection wicks. A sustained break and daily close above $1.50 on rising volume and improving Chaikin Money Flow would signal that spot demand is finally catching up with the technical setup.
Above $1.50, the next resistance corridor sits between $1.5250, $1.54, and $1.55. Once those levels are cleared, the broader medium-term target becomes the 50-day EMA around $1.78. Given the behavior after the last confirmed RSI divergence, a move from the low $1.30s into the $1.70–$1.80 region represents a realistic extension if the breakout is real and not purely short-covering.

XRP-USD – Buy, Sell Or Hold Verdict Around The $1.34 Line

Putting all pieces together—price structure, momentum, flows, leverage, and fundamentals—XRP-USD is sitting in a compression zone where $1.34–$1.35 is the line that separates a constructive reset from a deeper breakdown.
With XRP-USD holding above $1.34–$1.35, showing RSI divergence, a stabilizing MACD, narrowing Bollinger Bands, falling exchange reserves, and a live fundamental narrative around Community Day and tokenization, the setup justifies a speculative Buy bias with tight risk control. The immediate upside band sits at $1.45–$1.50, with a medium-term extension target toward $1.70–$1.80 if price can break and hold above $1.50.
If XRP-USD loses $1.3380–$1.34 on closing basis, the profile flips quickly into a short-term Sell environment, with downside focus first on $1.2920, then $1.28–$1.25, and finally $1.12. In that scenario, any bounce that stalls below $1.40–$1.45 becomes an opportunity to fade rather than to accumulate.
Right now the market is deciding whether XRP-USD uses the $1.34–$1.50 corridor as a launchpad or as a distribution range before another leg down. The next decisive break of either $1.34 or $1.50 will determine whether this phase resolves into a trend toward $1.80 or a reset back closer to $1.00.

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