XRP Price Outlook: XRP-USD Faces Make-or-Break at $2 After ETF Delay

Ripple (XRP-USD) Price Forecast: Tug-of-War Between $1.90 Collapse and $3.71 Breakout

XRP-USD Pressured Below $2 Amid ETF Delays, Macro Shocks, and DeFi Weakness

Ripple (XRP-USD) has entered a high-stakes phase. After falling over 40% from its 2024 peak near $3.40, the token now trades just above $2.00, retesting levels not seen since April 11. Over the past five trading sessions, XRP has posted its longest losing streak in over a month, with technical, regulatory, and geopolitical overhangs all contributing to investor unease. At the core of the latest downturn lies the SEC’s delay on the Franklin Templeton spot XRP ETF, which had initially stoked expectations of a mainstream institutional breakthrough. While prediction markets such as Polymarket still assign over 80% odds to a 2025 approval, the lack of near-term clarity has depressed risk appetite.

This regulatory hesitation was compounded by a broader crypto selloff triggered by US-Iran tensions, which dragged Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and altcoins into red territory. Meanwhile, XRP’s utility metrics inside decentralized finance (DeFi) weakened, with the total value locked (TVL) on the XRP Ledger falling 12.5% in 30 days, now sitting at just $54.2 million. Stablecoin supply dropped to $71 million, sharply underperforming newer chains like Berachain and Sonic. This weakness in ecosystem growth has undercut bullish sentiment—especially given Ripple’s long-standing vision as a cross-border transaction layer for institutional finance.

XRP-USD Tests $1.90–$2.00 Confluence Support With Triangle Breakdown Looming

From a technical lens, XRP-USD is now caught in a classic descending triangle pattern—a bearish continuation signal. The base of this formation sits around $1.90, while lower highs form a downward sloping trendline, reflecting consistent selling pressure on each rebound attempt. If XRP fails to defend the $1.90 floor, the technical projection based on triangle height suggests a further 43% drop, setting a near-term price target around $1.08.

Adding to the bearish setup, XRP has slipped below its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) and remains pinned under the 200-day EMA at $2.09, a key resistance level. MACD has sustained a sell signal since mid-May, and the histogram continues to trend negative, keeping downside momentum intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35 shows XRP in oversold territory, suggesting room for a technical bounce—but not without a catalyst.

Only a confirmed breakout above $2.20 would invalidate the descending triangle and open the door to a rally toward $2.65 and $3.71, the latter aligning with historical resistance zones and bullish breakout targets projected from a symmetrical triangle in XRP’s weekly chart.

XRP Whale Wallets Hit Record High—No Panic Selling Among Large Holders

Despite price pressure, on-chain data suggests XRP’s largest holders are not capitulating. The number of wallets holding 10,000 or more XRP tokens hit a record 295,000 as of June 20, according to Glassnode. This metric has not declined during the latest correction, signaling that whales and high-net-worth investors are maintaining conviction. In fact, whale wallet growth has accelerated—showing clear signs of accumulation, not distribution, even with XRP trading below $2.

This divergence between price and wallet concentration mirrors historic accumulation periods in other assets, most notably Bitcoin during its 2018–2019 bottoming phase. It is precisely this behavioral signal that many traders now interpret as the “smart money” preparing for a long-term structural shift in Ripple’s ecosystem.

Institutional Inflows Into XRP Hit $10.5 Million in June—Strong Signal in Risk-Off Market

Adding to the conviction story is institutional capital flow. CoinShares reported that XRP-backed investment products brought in $2.7 million last week, bringing June’s total to $10.5 million. That puts XRP among the top three altcoins in net inflows this month—trailing only Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH). These inflows occurred during a broader market drawdown, suggesting that sophisticated buyers are not only undeterred by volatility but may be viewing current price levels as a long-term opportunity.

This capital is not just coming from ETFs or ETPs. Treasury-scale purchases from Trident Technologies ($500M), Webus International ($300M), and VivoPower ($121M)—all aimed at building decentralized finance (DeFi) infrastructure atop the XRP Ledger—confirm that Ripple’s institutional thesis remains intact, if not accelerating. Together, these three investors alone have committed nearly $1 billion toward XRP-based initiatives within the last quarter.

Exchange Reserve Plunge Suggests XRP-USD Selling Pressure Is Waning

Another bullish element is emerging from exchange analytics. According to CryptoQuant, XRP reserves on centralized exchanges have dropped from $2.9 billion to $2.3 billion since May 12—a 21% decline. This metric is a proxy for immediate sell-side pressure: as coins move off exchanges, they are less likely to be dumped on the open market. Historically, such drawdowns precede supply squeezes and price rebounds, especially when accompanied by growing whale wallet counts and institutional inflows.

The decline in exchange reserves coincides with a sharp uptick in 24-hour trading volume, now exceeding $8.7 billion, along with a rise in liquidations totaling $21 million. These conditions create the possibility of a short squeeze, especially if XRP holds the $1.90 support zone and recovers above $2.20 in the coming days.

Derivatives Market Suggests Compression Before Expansion for XRP-USD

The derivatives market reinforces the idea of a buildup in tension before a major move. Open Interest (OI) in XRP futures has dropped from $5.52 billion to $3.54 billion, reflecting a drawdown in leveraged bets. However, this decline coincides with a jump in spot volume, implying traders may be shifting away from leverage-based exposure toward direct accumulation—a typical hallmark of capitulation and base formation phases.

CoinGlass also reports a flattening in funding rates, suggesting a more neutral market sentiment in the near term. If XRP breaks above its 200-day EMA at $2.09, the renewed positioning could flip bullish quickly. That would likely accelerate momentum toward the $2.65 resistance band, with optionality to stretch toward $3.71 in a full technical breakout.

Fair Value Models Suggest XRP Could Reach $18.53 at $100B Daily Volume

While near-term sentiment remains clouded, long-term valuation models continue to offer a compelling case. Based on research from Stanford economist Susan Athey and blockchain analyst Robert Mitchnick, a utility-based model shows that if XRP supports $100 billion in daily transactions, its fair value could rise to $18.53 per coin.

This model incorporates realistic assumptions: 59 billion token supply, 10-day average velocity between transactions, a $115 billion store-of-value metric, and a modest 1% discount rate. Considering that XRP’s highest-ever daily volume reached $51.7 billion in December 2024, a transition to $100B in settlement volume is not implausible—especially as Ripple expands into sovereign payments, CBDC pilots, and SWIFT alternatives.

This valuation framework, though speculative, is mirrored in bullish long-term predictions by firms like Telegaon, which projects XRP reaching $18 by 2028.

BUY / SELL / HOLD VERDICT: XRP-USD

Ripple's XRP-USD is now dancing on a knife’s edge at the $1.90–$2.00 support zone. The descending triangle pattern, persistent ETF delays, and technical breakdown risks argue for caution. However, countervailing forces—record institutional inflows, whale accumulation, falling exchange reserves, and fair value estimates exceeding $18—suggest substantial upside if current headwinds abate.

If XRP loses $1.90, the door to $1.08 downside opens quickly. But if it reclaims $2.20, then $2.65 and even $3.71 become viable short-term targets. For investors who accept elevated volatility and regulatory ambiguity, the risk-reward asymmetry favors accumulation at current levels.

Verdict: BUY XRP-USD on dips near $1.90 with a risk-managed target range of $2.65–$3.71 in Q3–Q4. Long-term fair value models support price potential north of $15, making XRP one of the most asymmetric opportunities in large-cap crypto heading into 2026.

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