XRP Price Surge: Will Ripple Break $5 by 2025?

XRP Price Analysis: Will Ripple Surge to $4.52 in 2025?

XRP has been on a rollercoaster ride lately, with its price seeing notable fluctuations driven by both macroeconomic factors and internal technical developments. After dipping to a low of $1.64 earlier this week, the cryptocurrency staged a dramatic recovery, moving back toward the $2 mark, reflecting a robust 9% gain within a 24-hour period. At the time of writing, XRP stands at approximately $1.99, fueled by optimism surrounding a shift in U.S. trade policy and a growing sense of confidence from investors. Could this price surge signal the start of a larger uptrend for XRP, or is it a short-term blip in a still-volatile market?

Political Developments Impacting XRP Price: The Trump Factor

Ripple’s recovery can largely be attributed to unexpected shifts in U.S. trade policy. On April 9, President Trump’s surprise decision to pause newly imposed tariffs for 90 days injected a wave of optimism into global financial markets. The temporary rollback reduced duties to 10% for 75 countries, with the notable exception of China, where tariffs were hiked to 125%. This move, while not entirely without risks, triggered an immediate positive reaction from markets worldwide. The S&P 500 saw a significant 9.5% jump, and major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and XRP-USD surged as well. This trade policy shift injected newfound momentum into XRP’s price, sending it above the $2 threshold. However, despite this rally, the market remains cautious, with concerns over the ongoing global trade disputes potentially adding pressure.

XRP’s Short-Sellers Hit Hard

XRP’s recovery caught many short sellers off guard, resulting in a wave of liquidations. In just a 24-hour span, $18 million in short positions were wiped out, reflecting the scale of the market's volatility. Overall, liquidations across both long and short positions amounted to nearly $24.16 million, indicating the extent to which market sentiment has shifted. This sudden rebound from the $1.64 low to the $2 mark has created a new level of bullish sentiment, suggesting that bears may be losing their grip on the market.

On-Chain Data: MVRV Suggests an Undervalued Market

Further fueling XRP’s bullish narrative is its Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which sits at 9.5% below its historical mean. This technical signal typically points to an undervalued asset, signaling a potential buying opportunity. On-chain analytics firm Santiment highlighted that such dips in MVRV are historically followed by price rebounds as "smart money" accumulates in the asset. While the MVRV’s negative reading suggests that many holders are currently underwater, it also implies that selling pressure may be minimal, which could help support XRP’s price moving forward.

Whale Accumulation and Network Growth

One of the more notable aspects of XRP’s recent price action is the behavior of whales. According to recent data, addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP tokens have accumulated over 510 million XRP over the past week. This large-scale accumulation, valued at over $1 billion, suggests a strong vote of confidence from key market players, further bolstering XRP’s price outlook. In addition, the number of active XRP wallets has surged, with over 6.25 million addresses now holding at least 1 XRP, marking an all-time high. This increase in wallet holders signals growing adoption and interest in XRP, which could lay the foundation for further price increases if investor sentiment continues to improve.

The Challenge of Decreasing Network Activity

While there are strong signals of investor confidence, XRP’s price trajectory is not without its challenges. One concerning development is the sharp decline in the number of daily active addresses on the XRP network, which has fallen from 581,000 in mid-March to just over 10,000 this week. This decrease in activity could indicate reduced organic demand for XRP, which may limit its short-term growth potential. As the number of daily active users dwindles, the market must watch for any signs of recovery in network activity that could re-energize XRP’s price momentum.

Macroeconomic Factors: Fed Rate Cuts and Broader Market Conditions

XRP’s price action is also being influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly the ongoing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. A more liquidity-rich environment, driven by rate cuts, tends to favor risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like XRP. As the Fed faces mounting pressure to support economic growth, the likelihood of a rate cut increases, potentially benefiting XRP’s price. However, the market’s reaction will depend heavily on the context of such moves. If rate cuts are seen as a response to economic weakness, investor sentiment may turn more cautious, potentially dampening any positive effects on XRP.

Elliot Wave Forecast: Is XRP Headed for $20?

Looking further into the future, the long-term outlook for XRP is shaped by Elliot Wave theory. According to popular analyst XForceGlobal, XRP may be in the midst of a five-wave cycle, currently completing Wave 2, with a final drop below $1 to complete the correction. If this theory holds true, XRP’s next wave, Wave 3, could see a sharp surge, potentially catapulting XRP to a price target of $20. This projection is based on the historical performance of Wave 3 in Elliot Wave theory, which is typically the strongest and most explosive phase of the cycle. While this long-term prediction may take years to materialize, it provides a roadmap for high-conviction investors to follow.

XRP Short-Term Price Targets: $2.41 to $2.60 Within Reach

In the near term, XRP is focused on reclaiming key resistance levels. The range between $2.11 and $2.60 has become a value zone, with high trading volumes indicating significant interest at these price points. If XRP can maintain momentum above $2.11, it is likely to continue its rally toward $2.41, and potentially even reach $2.60. A failure to break above these levels, however, could result in a retreat back to lower support zones, potentially falling toward $1.47.

XRP Price Prediction for 2025 and Beyond

Looking forward to April 2025, analysts predict that XRP’s price could range between $2.12 and $4.52, with an average price of $3.32. This represents a potential ROI of 148.4%, highlighting the potential for significant growth in XRP’s value over the coming year. Standard Chartered’s XRP price prediction aligns with this outlook, forecasting $5.50 by 2025 and $12.50 by 2028, driven by growing adoption, regulatory clarity, and the increasing likelihood of an XRP ETF approval.

Final Take: Buy, Sell, or Hold XRP?

XRP’s recent price action, coupled with increasing whale accumulation and positive on-chain signals, suggests a bullish medium-to-long term outlook. However, the cryptocurrency remains highly sensitive to broader macroeconomic factors and trade policy developments. Short-term volatility remains a risk, but with strong technical support and a growing user base, XRP is poised for substantial growth. Investors with a long-term horizon might view this as an ideal time to buy or hold, with a potential price target of $5 or beyond in the next 12 to 18 months. As always, market participants should proceed cautiously, keeping a close watch on external factors such as the Ripple lawsuit and regulatory shifts.

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