XRP (XRP-USD) Eyes $25 Surge as Legal Clarity, Whale Demand and Bullish Setup Align

Ripple's Legal Breakthrough Reshapes the XRP-USD Trajectory

Ripple’s strategic withdrawal from its appeal in the SEC lawsuit has redefined XRP’s investment profile. This was not merely a legal technicality—it was a catalytic reset for XRP-USD sentiment. With the SEC expected to mirror Ripple’s move and drop its own challenge, the regulatory cloud that once capped XRP’s upside has finally dissipated. The legal clarity is now allowing sidelined institutions to re-engage.

Just hours after Ripple dropped the appeal, XRP-USD spiked from $2.08 to $2.149, underlining the psychological weight that the lawsuit carried. That move was accompanied by a 38% spike in daily volume and coincided with a 5.3% jump in the number of U.S.-based wallet addresses. This development is critical: for the first time in years, U.S. banks and fintechs can explore RippleNet integrations without fear of compliance backlash.

Institutional Reaccumulation Strengthens XRP Price Floor

The total number of active wallets has climbed above 5.3 million, with over 130,000 new wallets opened in January 2025 alone. Trust Wallet and XUMM now host more than 36% of retail user activity. Meanwhile, wallets holding more than 1 million XRP have risen 14% year-over-year. These are not day traders. They are long-cycle holders—likely funds or fintech platforms positioning for upside.

Approximately 71% of XRP is held by the top 1% of wallets. This concentration, while often flagged as a risk, is now operating as a strength. These large holders are accumulating, not distributing. That was evident during the late May dip to $2.08. Instead of collapsing, XRP bounced, confirming the $2.07 zone as a firm accumulation base.

XRP-USD Technicals: Elliott Wave Signals and Volume Confirmation

At $2.19, XRP-USD trades 5.04% higher over 24 hours, with strong confluence between Fibonacci retracement levels and the evolving Elliott Wave setup. The correction from the $2.40 zone appears to have completed Wave 4. Now, the textbook impulse setup into Wave 5 could target upside extensions to $2.65, $3.40, and eventually beyond $5 if momentum holds.

The .618 Fibonacci retracement aligns perfectly with the $2.07 support level. Additionally, a 1:1 Fibonacci extension from the current wave structure targets $2.25 in the short term. RSI divergence across both 4-hour and daily charts supports this thesis. The RSI on the 30-minute and 4-hour windows has been steadily recovering despite price stagnation, signaling reduced selling pressure.

Moreover, XRP’s correlation with Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has dropped to 0.67, decoupling it slightly from broader crypto market swings and making its rallies more idiosyncratic—a bullish trait when macro pressure builds.

Market Structure Points to a Triangle Breakout

EGRAG CRYPTO’s triangle analysis projects a breakout window from early July to mid-September 2025. Based on a historical 334-day triangle structure, XRP typically breaks between 75% and 95% of the pattern duration. If that plays out, price targets between $10 and $15 are not speculative fantasy—they are structurally derived.

Volume metrics confirm this view. CoinGlass reports a 5% increase in open interest for XRP futures, while bid-ask spreads remain tight at 0.15% on major platforms. XRP has recorded six consecutive green months through March 2025—its longest bullish streak since 2017.

XRP Trading Dynamics: Coinbase Flows and Asia-Pacific Surge

On Coinbase, XRP/USD now represents 25.16% of all trading activity, outperforming Bitcoin/USD at 19.74% and Ethereum/USD at 6.88%. Binance, Kraken, and Coinbase together handle 61% of global XRP volume. The daily average stands at $1.73 billion, with a high of $3.2 billion in February 2025.

Asia-Pacific activity accounts for 30% of that volume, led by Japanese and Korean exchanges. OTC trades, often a proxy for institutional participation, now represent 19% of XRP’s total activity.

XRP Price Targets: $2.69, $3.40, $15, and Beyond

Analyst CasiTrades sees $2.25 as the immediate battleground. If XRP-USD closes above this level with volume, the next checkpoint is $2.69. Clearing that could unlock the $3.40 resistance from the 2021 cycle. EGRAG’s triangle formation analysis offers extended targets between $10 and $15 by September, with a possible overshoot to $17.50.

Yet the most aggressive target came from institutional modeling: some scenarios envision a $25 high, but that would require a SWIFT-level integration or ETF approval—factors not currently priced in. Realistic models price XRP between $6.45 (InvestingHaven) and $9.25 (LongForecast) by 2026. These figures, backed by Wave and wallet data, suggest the upside potential remains asymmetric.

XRP-USD Ripple Buy, Sell, or Hold?

With regulatory clarity secured, strong technical setups confirmed, and fresh capital from both whales and funds entering at support, XRP-USD is a Buy at these levels. The short-term risk lies under $2.07, but the upside toward $2.69, $3.40, and eventually $10–15 presents a 4x risk-reward opportunity.

This is not a speculative bounce. This is a structured breakout in its earliest phase—led by regulation, confirmed by volume, and supported by wave structure. Unless XRP fails to hold $2.07 or re-enters legal uncertainty, the path forward is decisively bullish.

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