Bitcoin ETF Creations Reignite—BTC-USD Steadies Around $116,600 as Fresh $281M Fuels a Push Toward $120,000

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Reignite — BTC-USD steadies at $116,600 with creations back in size

Spot demand flipped green again as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted roughly $281 million of net creations in a single session, coinciding with BTC-USD reclaiming $116,000–$116,900 and tagging ~$117,300 intraday before settling near $116,600. Ether funds added about $222 million the same day, helping ETH reclaim $3,900 and circle the $4,000 mark. Another cut of the tape showed net intake of 2,195 BTC (≈$256 million) across 10 funds, with a single provider absorbing ~1,191 BTC of that total. Since January 2024, cumulative ETF balances have swelled toward ~1.2–1.4 million BTC, or about 6.6% of total supply, and when the flow sign turns positive after multiple red days, the circulating float tightens and spot tends to catch a bid.

Leadership of Flows — IBIT and FBTC pull size while BTC-USD holds the $116,000 line

On the positive day, the largest fund printed the biggest dollar intake while Fidelity’s vehicle followed with tens of millions, and VanEck plus Bitwise contributed supporting buys. On a contrasting outflow day earlier in the week, the same flagship fund led redemptions at roughly –$292 million—the biggest since May—underscoring that gross activity concentrates in a handful of wrappers. At ~$116,600, one flagship ETF’s stack near 739,362 BTC marked to market is ≈$86.2 billion of underlying; when creations fire, that capacity matters for liquidity and price discovery. Long-only allocators are not absent: a major endowment disclosed ~$116 million in the leading trust last quarter, adding ballast to the ownership base above $110,000–$112,000 spot.

Policy tailwinds — 401(k) access orders and an end to Ripple’s court fight lift the BTC-USD narrative

The policy backdrop helped turn flows. An executive order instructing agencies to enable digital assets in 401(k)s, plus action against “unfair de-banking,” widens mainstream distribution for spot ETFs exactly when creations are accelerating. Separately, the SEC and Ripple dropped cross-appeals, ending a four-year legal overhang; while XRP rallied double digits toward $3.34 on the headline, the bigger read-through is reduced U.S. policy risk and broader comfort using regulated wrappers. Add in rising September rate-cut odds and a crypto-friendly Fed nominee, and it’s a cleaner macro runway for BTC-USD to retest $118,000–$120,000 if daily creations stay north of $100 million.

Market microstructure — funding calm, upside calls rebuilt, and 90-day vol eases as ETFs warehouse coins

Derivatives were constructive without flashing froth: perpetual funding hovered near flat while upside demand re-clustered around $118,000–$120,000 strikes for BTC-USD. As ETF vaults accumulate—approaching ~1.2–1.4 million BTC—exchange inventories drain, realized vol trends lower versus the 60+ prints seen around the January 2024 launch, and intraday liquidity gaps shrink. That combination—spot creations + subdued funding—supports grinds higher, provided spot doesn’t slip back under the 50-day region near ~$113,100.

Flows as signal — a rules-based “follow creations, fade redemptions” read has beaten hold since launch

Behaviorally, ETF participants often chase: buy into strength, redeem into weakness. Counter-using that tape—long BTC-USD on net-inflow days, flat or risk-off on outflow days—has outperformed passive since launch, with cumulative returns near ~200% versus ~155% for buy-and-hold over the same window. It won’t win every regime, but as a confirmation layer alongside basis, options skew, and on-chain realized caps, the direction and size of daily creations remain tradable inputs—especially after a three-to-four-day outflow streak flips to +$250–$300 million.

Risk checks — when outflows cluster, BTC-USD can slide fast back to $113,100 then $112,000

The same pipes that lift price also cut the other way. Earlier this week, U.S. spot funds booked a third straight outflow session totaling about –$324 million, with –$292 million from a single issuer. If that pattern reappears while BTC-USD loses the $116,000–$116,900 shelf and settles below the 50-day near ~$113,100, the market quickly searches for deeper liquidity at ~$112,000 and then ~$110,000. Watch the sign and magnitude: two or three consecutive –$200 million to –$300 million days materially raise the odds of a retest lower, regardless of calm funding.

Levels to trade — hold $116,000, attack $120,000–$123,218; break there unlocks ~$135,000 for BTC-USD

Immediate support sits at $116,000, then the 50-day around $113,100, with a firmer base at $112,000. Overhead, $118,000 is the first resistance ledge; above it, $120,000–$123,218 is the heavier supply band where prior distribution and options gamma can stall momentum. A daily close through ~$123,218 opens a path toward ~$135,000. Into the weekend, the clean setup is BTC-USD holding ~$116,600 while net creations persist above ~$100 million; that combination has historically forced dealers to chase topside liquidity into the $120,000 handle.

ETH and the complex — $222M Ether creations, treasuries >$10B, and cross-flows that complement the BTC-USD bid

Nine Ether funds printed ~$222 million of net inflow alongside Bitcoin’s +$281 million day, helping ETH sustain $3,900 and line up a $4,000 test. Corporate and fund treasuries in ETH recently eclipsed $10 billion, and broad-alt measures rose ~4% on the session. The flow hierarchy still favors BTC wrappers first—good for BTC-USD momentum when the tape is risk-on—but healthier cross-flows reduce correlation shocks and keep the primary-market bid balanced rather than one-sided.

Positioning call — BTC-USD rated Bullish: buy defended dips above $112,000, target $120,000–$123,218, stretch to $135,000 on a breakout

With creations back (+$281 million on the day; +2,195 BTC in a separate tally), policy headlines widening distribution (401(k) access; anti-de-banking), and BTC-USD anchored around $116,600, the stance is bullish. Accumulate on pullbacks that hold $113,100–$112,000 with confirmation from positive daily net flows. First objective is $120,000–$123,218; a decisive close above that band targets ~$135,000. Invalidation is a sustained close below $110,000 accompanied by a return to multi-day –$200 million to –$300 million ETF outflows.

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