Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit $477M as BTC-USD Defends $107K Support, IBIT Extends $61.87B Lead

BTC-USD Rebounds Then Slips as ETF Flows Whipsaw Markets

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) remains locked in a volatile tug-of-war between institutional inflows and short-term redemptions. After multiple red sessions, U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs staged a sharp rebound with combined inflows of $619 million, including $477.2 million into Bitcoin funds alone. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led with $210.9 million, reaffirming its dominance, followed by ARK 21Shares (ARKB) with $162.85 million, Fidelity’s FBTC at $34.1 million, and Bitwise’s BITB at $20.1 million. VanEck’s HODL contributed $17.41 million, while smaller issuers—Grayscale’s GBTC, Invesco’s BTCO, Franklin’s EZBC, and Valkyrie’s BRRR—registered modest gains. Ethereum mirrored the strength, securing $141.7 million in inflows led by Fidelity’s FETH ($59.1M) and BlackRock’s ETHA ($42.5M). However, the surge proved fleeting. Within 24 hours, total withdrawals hit $120 million, with Bitcoin ETFs losing $101.29 million and Ethereum products shedding $18.77 million. Even amid redemptions, IBIT absorbed $73.6 million, a sign that longer-term holders remain active buyers despite shifting sentiment.

Bitcoin ETF Capital Structure and Market Influence

The scale of Bitcoin’s ETF footprint remains formidable. Trading volume reached $6.58 billion, while cumulative net inflows stood near $61.87 billion. Total Bitcoin ETF assets under management (AUM) now hover at $146.27 billion, representing roughly 6.81% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization. By comparison, Ethereum ETFs recorded $2.63 billion in daily turnover and $25.81 billion in total AUM, equal to 5.66% of ETH’s market value. This imbalance underscores Bitcoin’s structural dominance; ETF flows for BTC remain the single most influential driver of market tone across the crypto spectrum.

BTC-USD Price Map: Key Support and Resistance Zones

BTC-USD trades near $110,000, slightly up on the week but still down about 3.4% over 30 days. The pivotal $107,000–$108,000 support band defines the market’s short-term survival zone, repeatedly tested since early October. A breakdown through this level risks exposing the $100,000 psychological pivot, while a firm reclaim of $113,000–$115,000 could reestablish upside momentum toward the $120,000 reaction zone projected by harmonic models. Analysts continue to flag ETF flow direction as the deciding factor—when daily creations exceed $300–$500 million, Bitcoin tends to reclaim bullish momentum, but consistent -$100–$200 million outflows usually drag the pair back into range-bound stagnation.

Institutional Flow Leadership and Market Dominance

Despite volatility, Bitcoin’s dominance within the ETF landscape is unchallenged. BTC commands nearly 59.3% of total crypto market capitalization, dwarfing Ethereum’s 12.6%. Even on the outflow day, IBIT maintained inflows of +$73.63 million, while Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s GBTC saw exits of -$56.56 million and -$56.63 million respectively. Bitcoin’s total market capitalization stands near $2.18 trillion, backed by $64 billion in 24-hour spot trading volume. That depth amplifies the influence of ETF creations—each positive print in IBIT or ARKB represents systemic liquidity entering the ecosystem, directly impacting BTC-USD price resilience.

Investor Positioning and Demand-Side Fragility

The split between inflow and outflow sessions exposes the market’s fragile balance. Tuesday’s $477.2 million in Bitcoin ETF inflows reignited bullish sentiment, but the following $101.29 million outflow revealed how quickly optimism fades. The cumulative picture remains net positive, yet traders are wary: without sustained multi-day creation streaks above $300 million, demand-side fragility persists. Analysts emphasize that two to three consecutive high-volume inflow days could stabilize BTC-USD above $113,000, while another string of redemptions may test $107K and reopen the path to $100K

Ethereum’s Correlation and Capital Rotation

Ethereum’s ETF flows continue to shadow Bitcoin’s pattern. While $141.7 million poured into ETH funds during the rebound, outflows of $18.77 million followed quickly, led by FETH (-$49.5M), ETH (-$46.6M), and ETHE (-$33.5M). BlackRock’s ETHA defied the trend with a +$110.71 million gain. The ETF’s total AUM of $25.81 billion—just 5.66% of Ethereum’s capitalization—reflects a still-growing institutional channel. Historically, when Bitcoin stabilizes, risk capital rotates into Ethereum; hence, steady ETH creations could indirectly affirm broader risk-on conditions, supportive of BTC-USD recovery.

Sentiment, Fear Index, and Market Psychology

Despite modest gains, crypto sentiment remains subdued, with the fear and greed index at 27—deep in “fear” territory. This disconnect between cautious sentiment and resilient prices suggests shallow conviction among traders. The market reacts disproportionately to ETF flow headlines because institutional participation has become the core liquidity driver. Until consistent net inflows return, BTC-USD will remain hypersensitive to daily ETF prints, with price swings magnified by the concentration of passive fund activity.

Institutional Signals and Creation-Redemption Dynamics

In the absence of insider transaction data, ETF creation and redemption cycles act as Bitcoin’s institutional barometer. When authorized participants increase creations across IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB, it signals fresh institutional capital entering the system. Conversely, clusters of redemptions from GBTC and FBTC often mark short-term positioning unwinds rather than systemic exits. Analysts view these shifts as key timing tools; consistent creations correlate strongly with uptrends in BTC-USD, while sustained redemptions precede consolidations or corrections.

Risk Map and Technical Scenarios Ahead

The immediate technical risk lies in ETF weakness. Should net daily redemptions persist beyond -$200 million, or macro stress trigger capital flight, BTC-USD could lose its $107K–$108K footing and retest $100K. Conversely, a series of inflow-heavy sessions—each above $300–$600 million—would likely propel BTC-USD toward $115K, then $120K. Futures term structure steepening and basis expansion would confirm a sustained bullish phase, while flat or inverted structures would validate caution. The pattern remains binary: flows dictate direction.

BTC-USD Rating and Tactical Outlook

Given the data, BTC-USD merits a Buy-on-Dips stance within the $107K–$108K accumulation zone, with tight stops below $107K. Neutral Hold between $108K–$115K, shifting to Buy on a confirmed breakout above $115K paired with strong ETF inflows exceeding $300M per day. Should outflows extend and prices close decisively below $107K, the rating flips to Hold/Reduce, awaiting stability near $100K where deeper demand likely returns. Bitcoin’s structural advantage—$61.87B in cumulative ETF inflows, $146.27B AUM, and 59% market dominance—remains the core argument for long-term accumulation, even as short-term volatility tests conviction.

That's TradingNEWS