Bitcoin ETFs Onflows Lock 1.296M Coins as Price Consolidates Above $118K

Spot Bitcoin ETF Demand Math: Six Straight Days of Bitcoin Fund Inflows Tighten Supply

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their sixth consecutive day of net inflows, adding $86.7–$86.9 million on Wednesday alone. This steady accumulation has pushed combined holdings to ~1.296 million BTC, roughly 6.5% of total circulating supply. Over the past 30 days, funds absorbed ~17,393 BTC; at this pace, ETF reserves could exceed 1.5 million BTC by year-end—surpassing the estimated 1.4 million BTC thought to be permanently lost. BlackRock’s IBIT leads with ~744,500 BTC (around 3.3% of supply), growing ~4,300 BTC monthly. This structural buying continues to outweigh post-halving issuance of ~450 BTC/day, creating a mechanical squeeze in available float.

Issuer Breakdown: Where the Latest BTC-USD Flows Concentrated

Ark Invest’s ARKB led Wednesday’s inflows with $36.58 million, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC at $26.7 million. Grayscale’s converted trust added $11.42 million, while Invesco’s BTCO pulled $4.90 million. BlackRock, Valkyrie, and WisdomTree posted flat flows but continued to trade at small premiums—signaling persistent demand even when creations pause. Over the past five sessions, aggregate ETF inflows reached ~$1.89 billion, coinciding with BTC-USD setting a new all-time high at $124,126 before consolidating in the $118,000–$122,000 range.

Macro Tailwinds: Fed Cut Odds and Post-Halving Supply Pressure

Futures now price a 93.9% probability of a September Fed rate cut. Lower real yields typically support non-yielding, supply-capped assets like Bitcoin. The April 2024 halving cut daily issuance to ~450 BTC, far below the thousands of BTC ETFs are absorbing weekly. This mismatch keeps the market structurally tight, amplifying the price effect of even modest net inflows.

Ethereum Inflows Surge, but Bitcoin’s Supply Lock Remains the Core Story

Spot Ether ETFs pulled $704–$729.1 million Wednesday—their second-largest daily total since launch—bringing the three-day ETH inflow to ~$2.2 billion versus Bitcoin’s $330.9 million over the same period. BlackRock’s ETHA led with ~$500.9 million, Fidelity’s FETH added $154.7 million, and Grayscale brought in $51.3 million. ETH’s price jumped to $4,775, now just 4% below its $4,900 ATH. While Ether’s surge dominates headlines, Bitcoin’s ETF accumulation remains the bigger structural force, with total holdings closing in on the 1.5M BTC milestone.

Liquidity Mechanics: How ETFs Reduce BTC-USD Exchange Float

Coins in ETF custody remain locked in cold storage, unavailable for direct retail withdrawal. With 1.296 million BTC already sequestered and inflows still positive, the effective exchange float is shrinking. If monthly ETF intake doubles from 17,393 BTC to ~34,000 BTC, holdings would top 1.6 million BTC by December—further tightening supply and increasing sensitivity to demand spikes.

Risk Watch: What Could Break the Inflow Trend

Potential disruptors include a sharp reversal in Fed expectations, large-scale profit-taking at highs, or regulatory changes to ETF creation/redemption mechanics. Concentration risk also matters: BlackRock’s outsized stake means any reversal in IBIT flows could temporarily pressure BTC-USD.

Investment Call: Buy BTC-USD with Pullback Additions

With six straight days of inflows, $1.89 billion added since Friday, and price holding above $118,000, BTC-USD remains in a strong accumulation phase. I maintain a Buy rating, adding exposure on dips toward the low-$110Ks. The key year-end signal remains ETF holdings hitting 1.5M BTC—a threshold that, if reached alongside Fed easing, could set the stage for another leg higher beyond $124,126.

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