Bitcoin ETF Inflows Power BTC-USD to $122K, Inches from Record High

Massive BTC-USD ETF Inflows Ignite Momentum Toward Record Highs

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) surged above $122,000, propelled by some of the largest spot Bitcoin ETF inflows of 2025. Data from multiple issuers shows a combined $773 million of net inflows over the three days ending August 10, with BlackRock’s IBIT capturing a dominant share and now holding $80 billion in BTC—just shy of the $94 billion in assets managed by gold’s SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD). Over the past week alone, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $253 million in new capital, while Ethereum ETFs surpassed even that with $461 million, underscoring heavy institutional participation in crypto-linked products.

Institutional and Pension Demand Strengthens BTC Price Base

President Donald Trump’s executive order allowing 401(k) retirement plans to hold digital assets—alongside private equity and other alternative investments—has opened a potential $12 trillion pool of retirement savings to Bitcoin exposure. Analysts warn that even a conservative allocation from these accounts could channel hundreds of billions into crypto markets. Harvard University’s endowment disclosed $117 million in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF holdings in Q2, outpacing its stake in Alphabet, while the Michigan Retirement System raised its ARKB position to 300,000 shares valued near $10.7 million.

ETF Options and Derivatives Signal Persistent Bullish Bias

The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF options market is heating up, with a total nominal trading volume of $1.69 billion and open interest hitting $26.84 billion as of August 7. The long-short ratio at 1.71 and implied volatility at 40.97% indicate traders are leaning bullish without reaching extremes. The 7-day SMA at $116,319 now serves as a solid technical floor, while the RSI at 67.76 keeps BTC in bullish territory but not yet overbought.

Technical Levels Define BTC’s Short-Term Path

Bitcoin’s immediate resistance sits at the July peak of $123,218. A daily close above this could trigger algorithmic buying and retail FOMO, with Fibonacci extension targets ranging from $126,000 to $129,000. Failure to hold above $120,000 risks a retest of $116,795, and a deeper slip could target $110,530–$111,920. The market’s resilience above the 20-day SMA reinforces the bullish structure, while heavy ETF inflows suggest dips are likely to be met with aggressive institutional buying.

Global ETF Landscape Highlights U.S. Dominance

While U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs continue to see robust demand, Hong Kong’s spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded no net inflows last week, keeping AUM at $49.7 million. Issuer holdings in Hong Kong fell, with Harvest Bitcoin at 292.92 BTC and Huaxia at 2,290 BTC. In contrast, BlackRock, Bitwise, and Grayscale drove U.S. inflows, with BlackRock alone adding $294 million in crypto ETF assets, pushing its total to $98.9 billion.

Macro Catalysts Align With Crypto ETF Surge

Global markets are tracking U.S. inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, and the Jackson Hole symposium for policy signals. Futures markets currently price in an 88% probability of a 25 bps rate cut next month, a setup reminiscent of the late-2024 “rate cut rush” that doubled Bitcoin’s price in four months. Simultaneously, optimism over a potential extension of the U.S.–China tariff truce and improving emerging-market currency performance has lifted broader risk sentiment.

Corporate and Treasury Holdings Reinforce Long-Term BTC Case

Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy remains committed to growing its $76.8 billion Bitcoin treasury, reaffirming BTC as a core corporate reserve asset. Other publicly listed companies—Empery Digital, Strategy H 100, and Metaplanet—have also been accumulating despite ETF issuers like Fidelity, Grayscale, and Ark reportedly selling BTC recently. This divergence between ETF issuer flows and corporate treasuries highlights different investment horizons, with corporates signaling multi-year conviction.

Volatility Compression Brings BTC Closer to Gold’s Stability

According to Bloomberg data, Bitcoin’s 90-day rolling volatility has dropped below 40 for the first time since spot ETFs launched, down from above 60 at inception. Relative to gold’s GLD, BTC’s volatility is now less than twice that of the metal—compared to over three times pre-ETF—suggesting that institutional adoption is smoothing price swings, which could attract further conservative capital.

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