Bitcoin Price Forecast - Bitcoin at $112,915 After $1.5B Crash as Metaplanet Buys $633M BTC-USD

BTC-USD Holds $113K After Heavy Liquidations

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading at $112,915–$113,137, holding near a two-week low after a $1.5 billion liquidation event wiped out more than 400,000 leveraged traders on Monday. Trading volumes surged above $55 billion, while market capitalization steadied at $2.25 trillion. The flush came as derivatives positioning and thin liquidity magnified price swings, pushing BTC briefly under $112,000 before dip-buyers stepped in.

Technical Pressure Around $113,450 EMA

Price action remains pinned under the 200-day EMA at $113,450, a decisive resistance level. Failure to reclaim that line leaves downside targets at $110,850, $108,770, and even $107,250. On the upside, bulls need a breakout above $114,750–$116,200 to reestablish momentum toward $117,900 and $119,300. The RSI sits oversold near 36, hinting at potential relief, but sellers remain in control without a bullish reversal pattern.

Corporate Treasuries Keep Accumulating

Despite the turbulence, institutions continue to scale exposure. Metaplanet (Tokyo) added 5,419 BTC worth $633 million, bringing total holdings to 25,555 BTC valued near $3 billion, making it the fifth-largest corporate holder globally. Michael Saylor’s Strategy purchased another 850 BTC for $100 million, lifting its stash to 639,835 BTC, worth $47.3 billion. In the U.S., Strive’s merger with Semler Scientific was paired with a $675 million BTC allocation, bringing combined holdings to 10,900 BTC. These treasury strategies show conviction, with Metaplanet posting a 10% return in under three months on its Bitcoin allocation.

ETF Flows and Institutional Liquidity

Flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs turned mixed after weeks of strong demand. Glassnode data shows weakening demand on the spot side, with net ETF inflows flipping to small outflows, while futures open interest remains elevated but skewed by negative cumulative volume delta. Analysts note this reflects aggressive selling from leveraged traders while long-only funds maintain exposure. Call option demand for $120,000–$125,000 strikes into October suggests some desks are positioning for seasonal strength, with October historically Bitcoin’s strongest month.

Macro Triggers: Fed and Inflation Ahead

The Federal Reserve’s latest 25 bp rate cut is anchoring risk sentiment, but policymakers warn inflation remains sticky. Jerome Powell’s speech on Sept 24 and the core PCE release on Sept 26 will be key catalysts. The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.12% signals markets are preparing for further easing, which would reinforce Bitcoin’s role as a liquidity hedge. Conversely, a hawkish pivot risks deepening the slide toward $110K.

Arthur Hayes and the Fiscal Shock Thesis

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes argues Trump’s policy platform — including potential yield curve control — could unleash trillions in new credit and drive Bitcoin to extreme valuations by 2028. While Hayes floated a $3.4 million per BTC scenario, he clarified that the realistic takeaway is a “markedly higher” price from today’s $113K, echoing his belief that Bitcoin is the “fastest horse” in a dollar-debasement cycle.

Altcoin Rotation and Bitcoin Hyper Narrative

The shakeout coincided with speculative flows into altcoins and presales. Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER), a Solana-based Layer 2 project, raised $17.6 million in presale at $0.012965, promoting 6,000% APY in early staking. Its promise of instant transfers and ZK-proof scaling has drawn attention, though it highlights how investor capital can rotate quickly away from BTC during consolidation.

Market Structure and Risk Signals

Glassnode notes short-term holder cost basis at $111,400 is a critical support. A breakdown below that level could flip the medium-term outlook bearish. Network activity has risen, with more addresses transacting and fees dropping, signaling organic adoption rather than speculative frenzy. Still, ETF outflows and negative futures flows point to fragile demand.

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