Bitcoin Price Forecast (BTC-USD): $77K Under Pressure After Warsh Shock and Gold Meltdown

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) slides into the mid-$70,000s after a vertical flush

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is trading around $77,000–$78,000 after an aggressive selloff that dragged the price down toward $74,500–$74,900, the lowest region since last April and close to a 10-month low. Over roughly two weeks BTC is down about 20%, with a drop of around 12% in the last seven days and a drawdown of about 40% from the $126,000 peak set in October. That move erased more than $200 billion in market value. The tape shows a direct flush rather than a slow correction, with price moving from just above $80,000 into the mid-$70,000s over a weekend when liquidity was thin. The market is now locked around a critical band between roughly $76,702.93 and $73,581.22, defined by prior highs and lows from 2024–2025. As long as daily closes hold above that zone, the market treats the move as a violent correction inside a broader consolidation. A daily close below $73,581.22 would shift the structure toward a deeper bearish phase.

Leverage and liquidations turn a pullback in BTC-USD into a liquidation cascade

The leg down in BTC-USD was driven by leverage as much as by spot selling. Over the recent downside stretch more than $1.6 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated, with a single day showing about $2.56 billion of forced selling across coins. On Bitcoin alone forced closures of long and short positions exceeded $2 billion after price broke below key short-term levels near $80,000. In the weeks before the break derivatives data showed speculative long exposure rebuilding as traders chased the early-year bounce. Once BTC failed to push higher and slipped back under those reference levels, margin calls and stop-losses hit in thin weekend books. Liquidity was not deep enough to absorb the flow, so each forced sale punched through the order book and accelerated the move down to $74,635.5 and then $74,553. This is classic deleveraging structure. The first wave is driven by mechanical selling, not by valuation. Until that excess is cleaned out and funding normalizes, any fast bounce back toward $80,000 can trigger another liquidation burst if traders reload leverage too quickly.

Warsh, the Fed and macro: BTC trades like a high-beta liquidity asset, not a refuge

Macro policy is a core driver of the current BTC repricing. President Trump’s decision to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair triggered a reset of rate expectations. Warsh has a history of hawkish positioning, a focus on inflation control, and skepticism toward long periods of aggressive balance-sheet expansion. Markets moved from expecting a smoother easing cycle to pricing slower and more cautious cuts. That environment is hostile to assets that depend on cheap leverage and abundant liquidity. The adjustment did not hit Bitcoin alone. High-multiple tech names sold off hard, including a $357 billion value loss in Microsoft (MSFT) in one session, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) and other risk benchmarks wobbled. At the same time the U.S. Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) bounced back into the 97.3–97.5 area, gaining about 1% over Friday and Monday after being one of the most crowded shorts in global macro. With that setup BTC-USD is trading as a high-beta macro expression. When the market re-prices the Fed path and the dollar, crypto reprices with it. The current drop is a liquidity and policy shock layered on top of crowded positioning, not an isolated crypto accident.

Gold and silver crash, the dollar firms and Bitcoin’s “digital gold” role gets tested

The pressure on BTC-USD arrived alongside a violent reversal in precious metals. Gold futures (GC=F) spiked above $5,625 per ounce last week, then collapsed almost 10% on Friday, slicing below $5,000 and printing intraday lows under $4,425 before stabilizing around $4,420–$4,750 early this week. Silver (SI=F) moved even harder, collapsing roughly 30% from peaks near $121.75 in a single day, the steepest fall since 1980, then swinging between about $71.20 and the $75–$80 area with double-digit intraday swings. Those moves matter for Bitcoin because the last year’s narrative pushed BTC as “digital gold”, with flows rotating into both metals and crypto as hedges against tariffs, geopolitical noise and currency debasement. When the metals trade unwound, the same capital that chased that theme started to de-risk across the entire alternative store-of-value complex. At the same time the dollar’s rebound toward 97.5 punished commodity-linked currencies and risk assets. The result is a correlated unwind: gold down 6–10%, silver down 30%, and BTC down about 20% over roughly two weeks. The picture is a broad cross-asset reset, not a BTC-only collapse.

Institutional flows, ETF outflows and Strategy (MSTR) as a live stress test on BTC-USD

Flows from larger players confirm the shift in regime. Digital asset products have now seen two consecutive weeks of outflows, with about $1.7 billion pulled last week alone and around $1 billion of net outflows year-to-date. The message is straightforward. Institutions are no longer leaning into every dip with fresh capital. Instead they are trading BTC tactically, buying strength and cutting when volatility spikes. That pattern was visible during the latest leg down. There was no clear wall of ETF demand at $75,000, which left spot prices exposed to pure derivative liquidation pressure. The behavior of Strategy (MSTR), the listed proxy for heavy BTC exposure, adds another layer. The stock dropped around 7–8% in premarket trade as BTC broke under the company’s average purchase level near $76,037 and hit the intraday low at $74,553. At that point Strategy’s 713,502 BTC stack, bought at an average around $76,052 per coin for roughly $54.26 billion, was worth about $53.1 billion. Despite that drawdown, Strategy bought another 855 BTC over the last week at roughly $87,974 each, adding $75.3 million in exposure and lifting the mark-to-market value of its holdings to about $55.6 billion as BTC recovered toward $78,000. The equity still trades around 1.15x its net BTC asset value, a modest premium that shows investors are willing to pay a small multiple for the embedded leverage and structure, but no longer a huge speculative premium. For BTC-USD this combination is neutral to slightly negative. Strong conviction holders remain, but the broader institutional crowd is rotating from structural allocation to tactical trading.

Key technical zones for BTC-USD: dense $73k support versus a heavy ceiling below $95k

Technically BTC-USD is boxed between well-defined support and resistance zones. On the downside the market is probing the $76,702.93–$73,581.22 band. That region captures the March and October 2024 highs and the March and April 2025 lows, making it a crowded historical pivot. As long as daily closes stay above $73,581.22, traders can treat the move as a sharp correction inside a wide range. If that level fails on a close, price logically targets the March–June 2024 high cluster in the $72,756.63–$71,725.44 range. A break through that second shelf exposes the July 2024 peak around $70,040.75, just above the psychologically important $70,000 level that several analysts already point to as a candidate for a local floor. On the upside the first resistance zone is the February 2025 low near $78,300.20, followed by the November 2025 low at $80,619.71. Those levels cap short-term rebounds out of the current support band. Above that, BTC runs into a thicker supply zone between about $89,226.00 and $91,143.38, and then an even heavier cap from roughly $94,095.33 to $94,766.54, defined by mid-November lows and the December–January highs. To re-open a direct path toward the $98,330.30–$100,762.58 area, BTC has to reclaim and hold above that $94k belt. Right now the picture is clear. Short-term structure is constructive but fragile while BTC trades above $73,581.22, but the medium-term trend remains neutral with a bearish tilt while price stays under the $94,095.33–$94,766.54 ceiling and roughly 40% below the $126,000 peak.

Altcoins under pressure: ETH, XRP, SOL and meme names mirror the BTC-USD stress

The pressure on BTC-USD is mirrored across the large-cap crypto complex. Ethereum (ETH-USD) dropped about 6.6% at one point, trading near $2,290.92 and sitting close to a seven-month low, with recent quotes fluctuating around $2,250–$2,330 on daily swings of 1–2%. XRP (XRP-USD) has traded around $1.59–$1.63, with recent moves of about 4–5% during the worst sessions. Solana (SOL-USD) eased roughly 3%, hovering in the $103–$104 zone. Cardano (ADA-USD) sits near $0.2990 after drops around 1.5–2%, and Polygon (MATIC-USD) shows a similar pattern. Meme and speculative names are under similar pressure. Dogecoin (DOGE-USD) trades around $0.1075–$0.1076, with daily changes above 2%, and political or narrative tokens such as $TRUMP have also come off recent highs. The key point is correlation. Capital is not rotating from BTC into altcoins. It is leaving the space as a whole. When the flagship coin loses 20% in two weeks and the rest of the top-tier tokens post mid-single-digit to high-single-digit daily drops, the market is printing a broad de-risking, not a sector rotation.

Sentiment extremes, ETF outflows and the $70,000–$73,000 BTC-USD battle zone

Positioning and sentiment are now at pessimistic levels that can set up both further unwinds and sharp squeezes. ETF and product flows show $1.7 billion leaving digital asset vehicles in a week and $1 billion net outflows year-to-date, which confirms that institutional allocations are not yet stabilizing. At the same time indicators of retail sentiment show extreme caution. Many smaller holders have watched BTC-USD fall from $126,000 to the mid-$70,000s and are cutting risk rather than averaging down. Analysts are now focused on the $70,000–$73,000 band as a reference for a potential short-term floor. That zone aligns with the $73,581.22 threshold, the $72,756.63–$71,725.44 cluster, and the $70,040.75 July peak. A clean stabilization there, combined with a slowdown in liquidations and a turn in ETF flows, would give room for a push back toward $80,619.71 and possibly the upper-$80,000s. The alternative path remains in play. One camp projects a move toward $40,000 over the next six to eight months, mapping a classic 70–80% drawdown from the $126,000 high. A more extreme view flags a possible 87% crash down toward $10,000, describing 2026 as an environment similar to 2008 or 2000–2001, with risk assets repricing off a more hawkish Fed and elevated geopolitical risk. Those scenarios are not baselines; they are tail possibilities that shape positioning. The current tape reflects the dominance of caution. BTC trades in the mid-$70,000s, down 40% from its peak, with realistic narratives on both sides of the distribution.

Long-term BTC-USD narratives: million-dollar targets and infrastructure like Everlight

Even as the short- and medium-term picture turns defensive, long-horizon narratives remain aggressive. Some institutional models now publish 2035 scenarios with BTC-USD between $1 million and $1.5 million, and “optimistic” projections aiming at $3 million. These frameworks assume rising scarcity, steady institutional penetration, and increasing use of BTC as a macro hedge in a system characterized by high debt and periodic currency stress. At the same time, infrastructure around Bitcoin continues to develop. Projects such as Bitcoin Everlight are designed as dedicated transaction routing and execution layers, using staked BTCL tokens for validation and aiming to deliver fast confirmations as an independent trading layer. The Everlight presale, with tokens priced around $0.0010 in its current phase, shows that capital still chases leverage on BTC infrastructure even while spot price is 40% off its peak. These elements do not change the current mid-$70,000s pricing, but they explain why heavy long-term holders have not capitulated despite the recent drawdown. For them, the current zone sits inside a long accumulation window, not at the end of a thesis.

Trading stance on Bitcoin (BTC-USD): tactical SELL on strength, cautious HOLD at key support

Pulling it together, BTC-USD now trades inside a clear risk frame. On the downside, the critical levels are $76,702.93–$73,581.22, then $72,756.63–$71,725.44, and finally $70,040.75 as the last obvious support before sentiment turns decisively toward the $40,000 camp. On the upside, the first objectives for any rebound are $78,300.20 and $80,619.71, with major resistance stacked in the $89,226.00–$91,143.38 range and then $94,095.33–$94,766.54. Macro drivers are negative for now. A hawkish-leaning Fed chair nominee, a stronger dollar around 97.5, a crash in gold and silver, and stress across tech all compress the liquidity that powered the last leg from $70,000 to $126,000. Flows back this view, with $1.7 billion of weekly product outflows and $1 billion of net redemptions this year. Positioning is still clearing after more than $1.6–2.5 billion in liquidations. At the same time, long-term capital such as Strategy (MSTR) continues to accumulate and long-term models still anchor on million-dollar BTC scenarios. Given these facts, my stance is explicit. For active traders BTC-USD is a tactical SELL on strength into the $80,000–$89,000 region, where resistance, macro risk and residual leverage converge. For long-term investors already positioned, BTC-USD is a cautious HOLD while it trades between roughly $70,000 and $80,000, with risk tightly anchored to a weekly close below the $70,040.75 area. Until BTC reclaims at least $80,619.71 and starts attacking the $89,226.00–$94,766.54 supply zone, every sharp bounce should be treated as part of a high-volatility consolidation with a bearish bias, not yet as the start of a sustainable leg back to new highs.

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