XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Drops Toward $1.50 but ETF Inflows Signal Smart-Money Accumulation

XRP-USD Price Forecast – Structure, Flows and Risk Map

XRP-USD: Current Price, Drawdown and Market Context

XRP-USD trades around the mid-$1.50s–$1.60s after a sharp series of declines. Price dipped to roughly $1.58 over the weekend and tested the $1.50 area during the latest flush. Over the last week XRP-USD dropped about 11% and has fallen close to 20% in a month. On a 12-month view the token is down roughly 40%–45%.
The recent leg lower included five consecutive losing sessions and took XRP back to levels last seen in November 2024. The move coincided with a broad crypto deleveraging. About $2.2 billion of futures positions were liquidated in a single crash event, with roughly 335,000 traders wiped out. Bitcoin ETFs saw around $1.49 billion in outflows in one week, including a single day with roughly $818 million redeemed. Altcoin market cap excluding Bitcoin fell about 11% to near $1.02 trillion. XRP behaved as high beta into that stress and underperformed spot BTC on the way down.

Macro Shock, Politics and Liquidity Behind the XRP Selloff

The drawdown in XRP-USD is not only a chart story. Macro and politics pushed risk off at the same time. Tensions around Iran raised geopolitical risk. The release of new Epstein-related documents, with negative mentions of high profile names tied to large Bitcoin holdings, hit sentiment during thin weekend liquidity.
At the same time, a disruptive Fed chair transition to a more “hawkish-perceived” profile added uncertainty over US policy. Precious metals were hit as well, with gold and silver experiencing their sharpest selloff in more than a decade and erasing double-digit trillions in notional value. In that environment, a token like XRP becomes an easy source of cash. Once key levels broke on a low-liquidity weekend, modest sell orders were enough to cascade through stops.

Trend Structure: Daily XRP-USD Markdown Below $2.00

On the daily timeframe XRP-USD is firmly in a markdown phase. Price has broken several structural supports and is printing a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The 200-day moving average sits well above spot, near the $2.20–$2.50 band, while price trades around $1.55–$1.65. That leaves roughly a 25% gap between spot and the major trend line, confirming the market is still trading below its long-term bias.
Areas that acted as demand earlier in the cycle have flipped into supply. The $2.00–$2.20 region, which previously held several pullbacks, now caps rebound attempts. The $2.35 zone marks the early-2026 high and the top of the last failed breakout. As long as XRP-USD stays below those levels, every rally is more likely a corrective bounce inside a bear trend than the start of a durable bull leg.

Intraday Channel, Short-Term Supports and Immediate Risk Levels

On the four-hour chart XRP-USD trades inside a well-defined descending channel. The $1.85–$1.90 band that held in prior attempts has now become near-term supply. Recent pushes into that region were rejected quickly, confirming that sellers are using every bounce to exit or re-enter shorts.
Below that, a layered demand zone is visible. Short-term support has formed around $1.51–$1.60, where the latest dump stalled and where buyers stepped in as daily losses narrowed from about –5% intraday to around –2%. A slightly higher band around $1.70–$1.80 has also been important in past sessions, acting as a pivot where several intraday swings reversed.
If XRP-USD holds above $1.70–$1.80 and buyers can keep defending $1.51–$1.60 on dips, the market can stabilize into a consolidation range. If $1.51 gives way on strong volume, the next move is not a small adjustment; it reopens a much deeper downside path.

Key Downside Targets: $1.25 Base Case and $0.53 Tail Risk

The first important downside objective sits in the $1.25–$1.26 region. That zone matches the October flash-crash lows and aligns with a higher-timeframe demand block that has not been retested since. If the current $1.51–$1.60 floor fails, the chart naturally gravitates toward that pocket.
Below $1.25 the structure turns from “orderly markdown” to “deep reset”. A full 100% Fibonacci extension of the prior down leg, measured against the December corrective rally, projects an ultra-bearish target around $0.53. That path implies a decline of about 67% from $1.63 levels. This kind of move would likely require another systemic shock across the crypto complex, not just idiosyncratic XRP headlines, but it is on the map as long as the macro trend remains fragile and the July downtrend is intact.

What XRP-USD Must Do to Regain a Bullish Bias

Reversal conditions are clear and demanding. First, XRP-USD must reclaim $1.80 and convert it from resistance back into support. That would neutralize the most recent breakdown zone. Next, price needs to clear the $2.00 handle and hold it on closing bases, ideally with the 50-day moving average flattening and then turning higher around that region.
The decisive test comes at the $2.20–$2.35 band. The 200-day moving average near $2.20 is the trend separator; reclaiming and holding above it would be the first genuine signal that the bear cycle is over. A breakout through $2.35, the early-2026 high, would confirm that sellers have lost structural control and reopen the path toward $2.66 and then the $3.00 psychological line. Without those steps, talk of a new sustained bull phase is noise.

On-Chain and Volatility Metrics: Sharpe, Z-Scores and Regime

On-chain and statistical metrics show a market that is no longer in panic but is not yet in accumulation. The 30-day Sharpe ratio for XRP-USD sits close to zero, around 0.03–0.04. That means recent returns barely compensate for volatility; there is almost no directional edge over that window.
The Sharpe Z-Score is near +0.7. That is an improvement versus the recent past, confirming that the efficiency of downside moves is fading. However, it remains below the typical levels seen in strong trend regimes. Seven-day Sharpe momentum is slightly positive but weak, which is exactly what you expect in early base-building or “pause after crash” phases. Volatility has compressed after the liquidation wave. The tape reflects a market in equilibrium, not one capitulating or launching into a fresh breakout.

Ripple Escrow Unlocks: 1 Billion XRP Without a Spot Flood

Escrow activity around XRP often triggers fear, but the latest unlock sequence behaved as a controlled and expected event. Around 1 billion XRP was unlocked in several tranches, including 100 million and 400 million XRP transfers. At current prices individual transactions in that series represented between roughly $160 million and $650 million in notional value.
Despite the size, order books did not show a surge in market sells linked directly to those releases. The unlocks followed Ripple’s published cash-flow schedule that has been in place for years. Historically a sizable portion of unlocked XRP is either re-locked or directed into liquidity and infrastructure programs, rather than dumped. This time the pattern held: price remained broadly stable around the unlock window, and there was no sign of panic distribution. Escrow flows increased supply visibility but did not trigger a standalone sell wave.

ETF and Institutional Flows: Rotation From BTC and ETH Into XRP-USD

While retail traders focus on the red candles in XRP-USD, institutional behavior shows a different picture. On January 30 Bitcoin ETFs saw around $1.61 billion in net outflows. Ethereum products lost about $353 million on the same day. ETF vehicles tied to XRP recorded net inflows of roughly $15.6 million.
Those inflows are modest in absolute dollar terms but critical in direction. Cumulative inflows into XRP ETFs over roughly three months have passed $1.18 billion, while BTC and ETH vehicles are leaking capital into this correction. That is rotation, not noise. Large accounts are taking profits and risk off in the most crowded trades and reallocating to a token with a clearer utility case, better regulatory clarity, and more room to re-rate if the next leg of flows chases use-case rather than pure beta.
The core of that thesis is straightforward. XRP-USD underpins cross-border payment rails and settlement paths that attack a very large value-transfer market. The infrastructure is live. Institutions prefer to build positions into weakness when volatility shakes out retail, rather than chase the top of a momentum spike. The current flow pattern matches that behavior.

Prediction Markets and Seasonality: February 2026 Range Scenarios

Prediction markets give a live read on where traders expect XRP-USD to land by month-end. On Polymarket, contracts around February pricing show a 53% implied probability that XRP touches or exceeds $1.80 by the end of the period. There is a 48% chance priced for moves above $1.40, signaling consensus that deep crashes below current levels are not the base case.
Higher thresholds are given less weight. The odds for a move above $2.00 sit near 27%, dropping to around 11% for $2.20 and about 6% for $2.40. On the downside, only about 6% probability is assigned to a break below $1.00, with even lower odds for sub-$0.80 prints. Markets are effectively pricing a mid-range outcome clustered around the $1.40–$1.80 band, with low odds for either a full collapse or a euphoric breakout this month.
Seasonality pushes in the opposite direction. Historical data shows February tends to be a weak month for XRP, with median returns around –8%. With spot near $1.61, repeating that median behavior would imply a drift toward roughly $1.45. If bearish pressure persists, tags of $1.24–$1.25 are consistent with both the seasonal profile and the technical targets discussed earlier.

Cycle Fractals and Upside Scenarios to $7 and $27 on XRP-USD

Technical fractal work on prior cycles suggests two very different upside paths once the current bear structure ends. In a conservative replay of the 2021 pattern, XRP-USD could deliver about a 340% run from the eventual cycle floor. From a base near current levels that maps to the $7 region. In a more aggressive replay of the 2017 behavior, the move would be closer to 1,600%, which projects into the high-$20s area around $27.
Those are not near-term forecasts. They are long-cycle potential ranges if, and only if, the market rotates from markdown to accumulation and then to full expansion. For now these levels are reference points, not trading signals. The path to either outcome runs through the same checklist: regain $2.00, flip the 200-day moving average at $2.20–$2.50, clear $2.35, and then push through the prior high near $2.66. Without that sequence, talk of $7 or $27 is disconnected from the actual structure.

Synthesis: Technicals, Flows, and Macro in One Framework for XRP-USD

Combine the three pillars and the picture is clear. Technically, XRP-USD is in a marked downtrend, trading below its 200-day moving average with clean lower highs and lower lows. The immediate support band is $1.51–$1.60, with the next major demand zone at $1.25–$1.26 and a tail-risk extension to $0.53. Until price regains $2.00 and breaks $2.20–$2.35, the trend remains bearish.
Flows tell a different story under the surface. While retail accounts panic on the drawdown and while BTC and ETH ETF money exits, institutions are quietly accumulating exposure to XRP through ETFs and spot. Cumulative inflows near $1.18 billion in a few months, combined with modest but persistent weekly additions, show that large players are positioning for a future where cross-border utility and regulatory clarity matter more than pure narrative.
Macro explains the pressure but not a structural failure. A multi-asset risk-off episode, geopolitical noise, a messy Fed transition, and a record metals crash created a perfect backdrop for forced selling. That explains the speed of the move, not the long-term value of the network or the token. Once this macro volatility resets, the stronger factor set will be whether XRP-USD can rebuild its chart and sustain institutional inflows.

Clear Stance on XRP-USD: High-Volatility Hold, Not a Fresh Buy

Given this data, XRP-USD is a Hold, not an outright Buy or a Sell at current levels.
The downtrend is real. Price is below all key trend markers, and credible downside targets at $1.25 and even $0.53 are on the table if macro stress returns. A forced seller environment and heavy technical damage argue against aggressive new long positions until the market proves it can reclaim $2.00, $2.20, and $2.35.
At the same time, institutional behavior does not match the panic in the chart. ETF inflows, rotation from BTC and ETH, controlled escrow unlocks, and on-chain metrics that show a balanced regime rather than a collapse all argue against capitulating here. That combination does not justify dumping XRP-USD into weakness unless risk limits are already breached.
The rational stance is simple. Treat XRP-USD as a high-volatility hold inside a defined risk framework. Respect the $1.51–$1.60 and $1.25–$1.26 levels as key downside reference points. Wait for a clean technical reclaim of $2.00 and $2.20 before upgrading it from Hold to Buy.

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