Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Rebounds Above $103,000 After Historic Liquidations

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Slides Below $100,000 Before Rebounding, Testing the Market’s Conviction

Bitcoin entered November under intense pressure, its price collapsing beneath the psychological $100,000 line for the first time since June before clawing back toward $103,000 by mid-week trading. The drop marked a 20 % correction from the record $126,186 high in early October, officially pushing BTC-USD into a technical bear market. Nearly $1.3 billion in leveraged long positions were liquidated within 24 hours, the heaviest wash-out since April’s post-halving volatility. On-chain metrics from CoinGlass showed open interest down 23 % week-over-week and close to 30 % of circulating supply—around 5.8 million BTC—now held at an unrealized loss, a proportion that has historically defined exhaustion phases rather than cycle tops.

Macroeconomic Pressure and ETF Outflows Hammer Liquidity

Rising U.S. yields intensified the decline. The 10-year Treasury climbed to 4.15 % and the 2-year to 3.63 %, tightening global liquidity just as digital-asset inflows cooled. Data platform SoSoValue reported $1.3 billion in outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs since October 29, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, Fidelity’s FBTC, and Grayscale’s GBTC; spot Ether ETFs lost another $500 million. With the Fed reluctant to expand liquidity operations, traders blamed the absence of the “stealth QE” that had supported prior rallies. Correlation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ-100 surged to 0.86, proving that crypto remains tethered to risk-asset sentiment rather than trading as digital gold.

Derivatives Reset as Whales Build Fresh Clusters

After the liquidation wave, derivatives funding flipped negative across major exchanges—−0.015 % on average—signaling that shorts now pay to hold positions. CoinGlass heat maps show liquidity bands at $102.5 K, $111.5 K, $116 K, and $117.5 K where large bids have re-appeared. Order-book depth finally turned net-positive, hinting that whales are re-accumulating into panic. Stan Low of Grvt Research called this “the fourth corrective leg of 2025’s bull structure,” projecting that drawdowns exceeding 20 % historically precede rebounds of 40 % plus within 60 days once leverage clears.

Corporate Holders and Treasury Strategies Under Strain

The downturn exposed how corporate treasuries handle Bitcoin exposure. Sequans Communications (SEQU.PA) liquidated 1,000 BTC for ≈ $100 million, trimming its debt from $189 million to $94 million and cutting its debt-to-NAV ratio to 39 %. The Paris-based firm still holds 2,200 BTC (≈ $240 million) but its share price has collapsed 80 % YTD, highlighting leverage risk. In contrast, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) added 397 BTC at $114,771 average between Oct 27 – Nov 2, while Marathon Digital Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) posted a 92 % revenue jump YoY and its first quarterly profit, aided by diversification into AI-data-center services. Marathon’s shares rebounded 3 % after hours though still down 6.7 % intraday, demonstrating that investors reward operational pivoting more than speculative accumulation.

On-Chain Dynamics Signal Capitulation, Not Collapse

Glassnode data confirmed long-term holders sold ≈ $45 billion BTC since mid-October, reducing LTH supply to 14.1 million coins, the steepest fall in 17 months. Short-term holders absorbed part of that flow, suggesting redistribution rather than abandonment. The 200-week EMA around $97,400 continues to act as structural support; Bitcoin has never closed two consecutive weeks below this line during an ongoing bull phase. The RSI near 41 and the BVOL volatility index up 28 % month-to-date imply the market is oversold yet turbulent, primed for consolidation once selling fatigue completes.

Regulatory and Geopolitical Crosscurrents Add Volatility

Regulatory noise intensified uncertainty. New EU disclosure standards and Asian capital-flow controls weighed on sentiment, while U.S. policymakers debated fresh crypto-tax measures. The Supreme Court review of Trump-era tariffs added macro tension, feeding into broader risk aversion. Still, adoption data stayed firm: active Bitcoin addresses rose 18 % YTD, and wallet creation in South Asia and Latin America hit record highs. Capital rotation into stablecoins totaled $7.4 billion in two weeks, suggesting sidelined liquidity waiting for clarity rather than mass exit.

Market Psychology Shifts From Neutral to Fear

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index collapsed from 54 to 38 in 48 hours, marking the sharpest sentiment contraction since the FTX aftershock of 2023. Retail traders retreated: Binance and OKX stablecoin deposits reached $2.8 billion, showing defensive positioning. Former Paxful CEO Ray Youssef described the mood as “classic exhaustion—good news ignored, bad news amplified.” Such sentiment phases historically precede stabilization when liquidity pools rebuild around large-holder bids.

Technical Map Defines the Next Battle Zones

BTC now oscillates between $99,000 support and $106,500 resistance. A decisive close above $111,500 could expose the liquidity cluster at $117,500, while any break below $97,000 risks a slide toward $92,000, the 38.2 % Fibonacci retracement of 2024’s $64 K base. CME futures basis narrowed to +0.9 % annualized, confirming leverage compression. Options implied volatility sits near 63 %, giving long-vol traders attractive skew. Spot-volume turnover increased 41 % week-on-week, indicating capitulation energy shifting to accumulation.

Altcoins and the Broader Crypto Complex Follow Bitcoin’s Lead

The correction spilled into the entire crypto market. Ethereum (ETH-USD) plunged 13 % to $3,143, Solana (SOL-USD) lost 2.6 %, Cardano (ADA-USD) slipped 0.7 %, and XRP (XRP-USD) eased 1 % to $2.26. Aggregate digital-asset capitalization fell below $2.2 trillion, erasing $400 billion since October. Yet institutional building continued: Ripple secured a new $500 million funding round led by Fortress Investment Group and Citadel Securities, reaffirming confidence in blockchain infrastructure even amid market stress.

Outlook and Tactical View

Bitcoin’s multi-week slide reflects the intersection of macro tightening, ETF outflows, and cyclical profit-taking rather than structural failure. With nearly one-third of supply underwater and leverage largely flushed, conditions resemble prior mid-cycle resets that paved the way for rebounds once liquidity normalized. The crucial threshold remains the 200-week EMA near $97,400; holding above it keeps the long-term bull intact. Near term, expect a volatile range between $97 K – $111 K, with upside momentum contingent on ETF inflows returning and U.S. yields easing below 4 %.

Based on current data: rating — Buy on weakness / accumulate between $97 K and $101 K; short-term bias neutral to bearish, long-term bullish.

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