Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Slides Below $100K as Bitcoin ETF Inflows Rebound

Bitcoin extended its steep correction on Friday, plunging toward the $100,000 mark as a combination of macro pressure, political headlines, and fading risk appetite hit digital assets. BTC-USD fell 1.7% to $100,420 at 09:28 ET, logging a second consecutive weekly decline and now down over 20 % from its October record high of $126,000—technically entering a bear phase. Total crypto market capitalization erased more than $120 billion this week as leveraged positions collapsed and investors shifted to cash amid a global risk-off mood.

Technical Breakdown: Key Levels Under Siege

On the daily chart, Bitcoin trades inside a compressed corridor between $100K–$102K support and $114K resistance. Both the 100- and 200-day moving averages have flipped into resistance after rejections near $110K, triggering a retest of the $101K liquidity pocket. The repeated failure to regain momentum above $106K marks exhaustion of short-term buyers. A decisive close under $99K would expose the macro accumulation band at $93K–$95K, where on-chain data suggests the next heavy layer of long-term demand lies.

Zooming into the 4-hour structure, price compression shows consecutive lower highs and constant pressure on the $101K–$102K base—a textbook pre-breakdown formation. Any rebound faces tight resistance at $106K, then $110K. Only a break above $108K with expanding volume—currently averaging $67.2 billion daily—would flip sentiment back toward neutrality.

On-Chain Data Exposes Supply-Demand Tug of War

Realized-price metrics reveal intense friction between short-term capitulation and mid-term accumulation. Wallet cohorts holding 1–6-month coins are underwater, with realized cost bases near $107K–$110K, turning those zones into overhead supply as holders aim to exit at breakeven. In contrast, the 6–12-month band, centered around $95K–$96K, has historically provided durable support during capitulation waves. Sustained defense above that zone would confirm absorption by long-term capital and preserve the broader bullish cycle structure; a clean breakdown beneath would signal a new macro reset.

Institutional Flow Reverses After ETF Exodus

After six straight days of withdrawals totaling $2.05 billion, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs finally saw $240 million in inflows on Thursday. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led with $112.4 million, followed by Fidelity’s Wise Origin (FBTC) at $61.6 million and Ark 21Shares’ ARKB at $60.4 million. Bitwise’s BITB added $5.5 million, bringing total daily ETF volume to $4.77 billion. Despite this rebound, cumulative institutional flows remain net-negative for the month, signaling caution rather than conviction. The return of inflows suggests that some professional desks view the $100K region as tactical accumulation territory rather than full-scale capitulation.

Whale Behavior and Long-Term Holders Shift

On-chain tracking shows that over 319,000 BTC—worth roughly $32 billion—have reactivated in the past month, mostly coins held for six to twelve months. This surge in previously dormant supply implies that some long-term investors are locking in profits after the record high. Total whale addresses (10K BTC +) have decreased by 3.5 %, consistent with a redistribution phase rather than outright panic. The 30-day net position change for long-term holders turned negative for the first time since March 2024, confirming profit realization during a macro uncertainty window.

Macroeconomic and Political Triggers Amplify Volatility

Bitcoin’s slide parallels the global equity downturn led by tech—Nasdaq -4 % weekly, S&P 500 -2 %—and compounded by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which froze key data like the non-farm payrolls report. Political developments added fuel: President Trump declared his ambition to make the U.S. “the Bitcoin superpower,” unveiling the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and new crypto-friendly legislation. His rhetoric briefly steadied sentiment mid-week before risk aversion returned. Traders now treat Washington headlines as real-time catalysts equal to Fed policy shifts; volatility spikes have aligned closely with presidential statements since early October.

Correlation Shifts: From Tech Proxy to Macro Hedge

Correlation between BTC-USD and the Nasdaq 100 tightened to 0.81 this week, underscoring its risk-asset behavior amid equity turbulence. However, intraday trading showed emerging divergence as Bitcoin stabilized near $100K while equities extended losses, hinting at early defensive positioning by digital-asset funds. Gold rose 0.19 % to $3,998.70, and the Dollar Index slipped 0.21 % to 99.52, suggesting partial rotation from fiat hedges into digital ones. The 10-year Treasury yield’s slide to 4.08 % also relieved pressure on crypto leverage funding rates, now averaging 8.6 % APR, down from 11 % two weeks ago.