Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC-USD Tests $67K Support With $97K Target on the Radar

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – From euphoric peak to institutional stress test

BTC-USD – Price collapse from $126,000 to a fragile $60,000–$70,000 band

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has flipped from vertical rally to damage control in a few months. From record highs around $126,000 in early October, price has surrendered close to 50%, grinding now in a $60,000–$70,000 corridor. Recent sessions show Bitcoin trading around $67,000–$68,000, after intraday swings of $1,500–$2,000, which tells you volatility is high but conviction is weak. Daily spot and derivatives turnover near $35 billion is solid, yet it looks like a market dominated by repositioning rather than new risk taking. The broader market is mirroring that fatigue. Ethereum (ETH) is stuck just under $2,000, XRP holds around $1.45–$1.48, Solana (SOL) trades near $83–$85, BNB sits above $615, and Dogecoin (DOGE) hovers just above $0.10. Global crypto capitalization briefly pierced $2.3 trillion, but total volume faded from roughly $98 billion to about $84 billion, which confirms that appetite to add fresh exposure has cooled.

Options, leverage and why $60,000 matters for Bitcoin (BTC-USD)

The tactical fault line is the $60,000 area. That zone is loaded with options open interest and hedging flows that can accelerate moves once triggered. A clean break below that level would force dealers and systematic strategies to adjust, turning a controlled correction into a new selling cascade. The sensitivity is already visible. A relatively modest 0.7–1.0% daily drop in BTC-USD recently produced about $67 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with roughly 74% of that coming from long positions. That ratio tells you many participants are still running leveraged exposure that cannot tolerate deep swings. The derivatives stack amplifies the effect. The Bitcoin derivatives market is around ten times larger than the spot market, so every directional shock is multiplied through futures, options and structured products. At the same time, CME futures open interest has fallen by around two thirds from its late-2024 peak to roughly $8 billion, which means large U.S. players have already cut a lot of leverage. That reduces the probability of a full-scale blow-up from here, but it also limits the fuel for a sharp short squeeze on the upside.

Institutional thesis under strain as Bitcoin loses its ‘hedge’ story

The core damage is to the institutional hedge narrative. Since October 10, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen about $8.5 billion in net outflows while BTC-USD has dropped more than 40% even as equities and precious metals found buyers. The asset that was supposed to hedge inflation, currency debasement and equity drawdowns has traded like a leveraged risk proxy instead of a portfolio stabilizer. That is exactly the opposite of what many large allocators wanted to see. The market’s structure explains why the reversal is so heavy. Over the last two years, price discovery has migrated from offshore retail venues to a mix dominated by U.S.-listed spot ETFs, CME futures and U.S. exchanges such as Coinbase. Spot ETFs funneled billions from pensions, asset managers and hedge funds into Bitcoin. The CME became the main futures venue for institutions. Coinbase prices now often sit at a discount to offshore exchanges like Binance, a clear sign of sustained U.S. selling pressure. When that U.S. capital base was expanding, Bitcoin ripped to its October record. Now that the same pool is shrinking exposure, there is no obvious new buyer to absorb the flow.

Gold vs Bitcoin – flows, behavior and why gold has clearly won the haven contest

The comparison with gold is blunt. While BTC-USD has surrendered nearly half its peak value, gold recently printed all-time highs above $5,300 per ounce on January 29 and is now only about 9% below that level. The gold move looks like a healthy consolidation after an extreme breakout; Bitcoin’s path looks like a full repricing of the risk premium. Capital flows reinforce that picture. Gold ETFs now manage close to $350 billion in assets, while Bitcoin funds hold about $80 billion. In December 2024, the gap between them was only around $4 billion, so the divergence over roughly a year has been huge. The buyer bases are completely different. Gold demand is anchored by central banks, sovereign wealth funds and wealth managers, operating with low leverage and long horizons. Bitcoin demand is dominated by structures that live on borrowed money, including hedge funds, basis trades and high-beta strategies that are forced to cut when volatility spikes. In a world of geopolitical tension, monetary uncertainty and institutional distrust, gold has behaved like a classic capital-preservation asset. Bitcoin has behaved like a risk amplifier. That difference is why gold has taken decisive control of the safe-haven narrative in recent months.

Bitcoin ETFs: $85 billion in AUM hides a market-maker driven structure

On the surface, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs still look robust. Even after the crash, they control around $85 billion in assets and more than 6% of total Bitcoin supply, with cumulative outflows of $8.5 billion since October that some analysts portray as manageable. The nuance sits in who owns those shares. Regulatory filings for late 2025 show that roughly 55–75% of BlackRock’s IBIT, which alone holds around $61 billion, is in the hands of market makers and arbitrage-focused hedge funds. These holders do not care whether BTC-USD is at $40,000 or $140,000. They run hedged, market-neutral books, using ETF shares and futures to capture spreads, not to express long-term conviction. During the fourth quarter, those desks trimmed $1.6–$2.4 billion of exposure as BTC-USD traded near $88,000, signaling that speculative demand and arbitrage inventory requirements have both declined. The resilience of ETF assets therefore does not automatically mean a deep pool of long-term believers. It reflects a structural mix of hedged trading, low-turnover institutions and a reduced marginal buyer. The time series matters as well. In April 2025, the major U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs backed by managers such as BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco and Vanguard held about $169 billion combined. Today’s $85 billion footprint is materially smaller, and funds are sitting on mark-to-market losses versus their initial purchases. That is the opposite of an easy environment for gathering incremental capital.

Macro headwinds: high U.S. rates, rich bond yields and a stalled policy tailwind

Macro conditions continue to lean against BTC-USD. Strong data on jobs and inflation has delayed expectations for aggressive U.S. rate cuts. As long as policy remains tight, investors can earn attractive returns in short-duration Treasuries and high-grade corporate debt, which reduces the need to chase volatile assets. Higher real yields weaken the argument that Bitcoin is indispensable as an inflation hedge. At the same time, capital that might have used Bitcoin as a hedge now has credible alternatives with defined risk and liquidity. The political backdrop has also cooled. Expectations that a pro-crypto White House would trigger a fast regulatory opening have been pushed back. The Clarity Act for crypto remains stuck in the U.S. Senate, delaying a coherent framework that large institutions can rely on. Without that clarity, many major balance sheets will cap position sizes, regardless of price. Looking forward, the next macro checkpoint is the U.S. PCE inflation release on February 28. A soft print that supports a more dovish outlook would ease pressure on risk assets. A stubborn inflation profile would likely keep the Federal Reserve cautious, which keeps the ceiling low for a high-volatility asset like BTC-USD.

Crypto winter debate: spiral risk, halving cycle and the breadth of the drawdown

The term “crypto winter” is back in circulation for a reason. Historically, harsh corrections often emerge roughly 18 months after each halving, when the initial supply shock and euphoria fade and leverage has built up. Many observers argue the current slide fits that pattern, especially as BTC-USD has wiped out all the gains posted after the November 2024 U.S. election. Others argue the cycle is different because institutional participation is larger and more regulated than in past winters. High-profile macro voices are feeding the negative narrative. Michael Burry, known for his housing crash call, has warned of a potential “death spiral” scenario if the decline continues, pointing to the dense leverage and collateral relationships in the ecosystem. Whether that scenario plays out or not, the scope of the damage is already broad. Beyond Bitcoin, large coins including Ethereum, Solana, XRP, USDC and BNB have suffered declines in the 30–40% range over the last 30 days. This is not a localized accident in one token. It is a full-field repricing of digital risk assets after a parabolic move.

Sentiment, liquidations and why extreme fear is not yet a full opportunity

Sentiment indicators underline how bruised this market has become. On-chain and social data show that words like “angry,” “frustrated” and “offended” around Bitcoin have spiked to their highest levels since Trump’s first election run, signaling deep dissatisfaction across both retail and professional communities. This is classic extreme fear territory, which in previous cycles has often lined up with attractive long-term entry points. The problem is that fear alone is not sufficient. Flow and price structure must start to confirm that the worst is passing. That is not in place yet. In the last month, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded four straight weeks of net outflows, with about $133 million leaving just in the latest week. On-chain data shows that the current accumulation phase is weaker than the rebound in November 2025, when fresh wallets absorbed supply more aggressively. At the same time, BTC-USD has been responsible for more than 80% of the total crypto market’s daily decline on some sessions, which shows that the benchmark asset is leading the downside, not stabilizing it. The latest $67 million in daily liquidations, with 74% from over-levered longs, confirms that many traders are still in risk-reduction mode rather than opportunistic buying mode.

Market microstructure: thinning liquidity, range trading and systematic flows in BTC-USD

Underneath the price chart, the microstructure of BTC-USD looks like a market in controlled de-leveraging rather than in expansion mode. Daily ranges of $1,500–$2,000 between roughly $65,000 and $70,000 are being driven by a mix of forced unwinds, systematic selling into strength and constrained liquidity during key sessions. When spot approaches the $65,000–$67,000 support band, liquidation of margined longs tends to spike, pushing price quickly through nearby bids. When price edges toward $70,000–$71,000, short-term algos and vol-target strategies lean against resistance, preventing sustained breakouts. Global crypto volume sliding from $98 billion to about $84 billion confirms that fewer participants are willing to step in size at current levels. CME open interest shrinking to $8 billion and the contraction in ETF AUM from $169 billion to $85 billion show a consistent theme: the system is de-risking, but from a position of already heavy losses, not from the top.

Technical map for Bitcoin (BTC-USD): key support, resistance and risk zones

The technical picture for BTC-USD is compressed but clear. The immediate defense zone lies between $65,000 and $67,000. This range has repeatedly attracted buying interest, preventing a deeper flush and marking the lower edge of the current rectangle. The primary resistance band sits around $70,000–$71,000, aligned with the 7-day simple moving average and the area where several rallies have stalled. A sustained break above $71,000, with rising volume and shrinking liquidations, would begin to neutralize the short-term bearish bias and open room toward the mid-$70,000s. Conversely, a decisive break below $65,000, especially if accompanied by a spike in forced selling, would likely expose $60,000 and possibly the high-$50,000s, where heavy options positioning and stop levels could turn a clean breakdown into another rapid downdraft. In that zone, the optionality around the $60,000 strike becomes crucial, because hedging flows from dealers can further amplify direction.

Cross-asset context: altcoins, equities correlation and the role of the dollar

The rest of the crypto market is acting exactly as you would expect in a Bitcoin-led drawdown. Major tokens like ETH, SOL, XRP and BNB are trading as high-beta satellites, delivering 30–40% pullbacks over a month as Bitcoin loses altitude. Global crypto market capitalization shrinks as participants cut exposure across the board, not just in the leader. Correlation with traditional risk assets still matters, but with nuance. In earlier stages of the cycle, BTC-USD often rallied in tandem with tech and AI stocks, tracking strength in indices such as the Nasdaq. In the latest phase, Bitcoin has fallen even while stocks and metals attracted buying interest, which highlights how much the hedge story has deteriorated in institutional eyes. A firm U.S. dollar and high real yields add another layer of pressure. When the dollar is strong and high-quality bond yields are attractive, capital has less incentive to move into assets that combine volatility with policy uncertainty, and Bitcoin sits at the center of that trade-off.

Three tactical regimes for BTC-USD over the next 3–12 months

From here, the next 3–12 months for BTC-USD cluster into three realistic regimes. The first is a downside extension through $60,000, where $65,000 fails, ETF outflows extend and macro data keeps the Federal Reserve defensive. In that path, remaining leveraged longs are forced out, options hedging adds more selling and price tests $60,000 or the high-$50,000s, matching a classic late-cycle “winter” flush. The second is a sideways digestion between roughly $60,000 and $75,000, with Bitcoin holding support but failing repeatedly near $70,000–$71,000, ETF flows stabilizing near flat and macro conditions restrictive but predictable. That version turns Bitcoin into a large, volatile range trade rather than a trending asset. The third is a repair phase toward $80,000–$90,000, which would require a sustained break above $71,000, a visible shift in ETF flows back to consistent net inflows and macro signals that give the green light for easier policy later on. After a 40–50% drawdown and a damaged hedge narrative, the market is not priced for that clean bullish repair yet; it will need several quarters of better data and more constructive flows to become credible.

Strategic view on Bitcoin (BTC-USD): Hold with a bearish bias until $70,000 breaks

Combining price behavior, flows, macro and sentiment, the message for BTC-USD is straightforward. The asset is already down 40–50% from its peak, yet the institutional hedge thesis is clearly weaker, gold has captured the safe-haven inflows with about $350 billion in ETF assets versus $80 billion in Bitcoin funds, and ETF AUM has halved from $169 billion to $85 billion with a structure dominated by hedged market makers and arbitrage desks. Macro headwinds remain in place, with high rates and attractive bond yields, while regulatory clarity is delayed and ETF flows have logged four consecutive weeks of net outflows. At the same time, sentiment is in extreme fear, liquidations have already punished over-levered longs and long-term structural holders are still present. That mix does not justify an aggressive fresh short stance at current levels, but it also does not justify a confident aggressive long. The clean label is a Hold stance with a negative skew. As long as BTC-USD trades below the $70,000–$71,000 resistance band and ETF flows remain negative or flat, the bias tilts bearish, with risk of further stress toward $60,000. For capital already deployed, the combination of prior damage, extreme fear and the potential for macro or policy catalysts later this year argues for measured patience rather than capitulation, but only with clear awareness that volatility toward the low-$60,000s or high-$50,000s remains a live scenario until the tape proves otherwise.

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