Bitcoin Price Forecast - BTC-USD Crashes to $94K as ETF Outflows Hit $492M

BTC-USD Deepens Its Slide As Bitcoin Crashes Into The $94K–$96K Stress Zone

Bitcoin’s decline has evolved into a full-scale structural breakdown, with BTC-USD now locked between $94,000 and $96,250 after a collapse that erased more than 24% from its October peak at $126,080. The plunge beneath the psychological $100,000 level confirms that the multi-month accumulation structure has failed, leaving the market exposed to compounded pressure from macro uncertainty, heavy long-term holder distribution, ETF outflows, and a technical rejection that originated near the $110,000 region. What’s unfolding is not a minor retracement but a coordinated unwind across derivatives, spot markets, and institutional flows. The result is a BTC market sitting directly inside one of the most critical demand regions of the cycle, where historical reversals have formed—but where overhead resistance is now significantly more congested than in previous drawdowns.

Macro Blindness And Post-Shutdown Uncertainty Push BTC-USD To Its Weakest Levels Since May

The crash coincided with the most significant data blackout in recent financial memory. The 43-day U.S. government shutdown suspended CPI, PPI, employment reports, and manufacturing surveys, leaving both the Federal Reserve and investors in a rare vacuum. As traders lost clarity on inflation momentum and employment conditions, expectations for a December rate cut fell sharply, dropping from 67% to 46% within days. Risk assets pulled back across the board, but Bitcoin absorbed the heaviest blow. While large equity benchmarks such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed flat or slightly higher, Bitcoin logged a 9% weekly loss, its worst performance in eight months. Ethereum amplified the weakness with an 11% weekly drop to $3,182, Solana shed 15% to $142–$145, while XRP held firm near $2.25 thanks to tailwinds from its newly launched U.S. ETF. This divergence highlighted how BTC became the market’s most sensitive liquidity barometer during the data vacuum.

Massive ETF Redemptions Reveal Structural Weakness As Spot Bitcoin Products Lose $492M In A Single Day

The institutional side of the market offered no relief. Bitcoin spot ETFs bled heavily, recording $492 million in outflows on November 14, marking the third consecutive session of aggressive redemptions. Across the prior 72 hours, outflows approached $1.5 billion, making this one of the most significant withdrawal waves since spot ETF approvals. Ethereum spot ETFs posted $178 million in redemptions, confirming that the derisking was systemic rather than isolated. These ETF exits generated significant downstream effects: spot selling accelerated, leverage collapsed, and liquidation cascades erased roughly $268 million in long BTC positions within 24 hours. Yet capital did not leave crypto entirely. Investors rotated into alternative exposures—Solana ETFs attracted more than $12 million in inflows, and the debut of the U.S. XRP ETF generated $243 million in fresh demand. These flows signal a shift in positioning rather than a market-wide exit, with BTC temporarily losing dominance as traders chased narratives with shorter-term catalysts.

Holder Behavior Shifts Dramatically As Long-Term Wallets Unload 815,000 BTC In A Month

One of the most defining developments behind the correction has been the behavior of long-term holders. CryptoQuant data confirmed that wallets with extended holding periods sold approximately 815,000 BTC in the last 30 days—by far the largest wave of long-term distribution since early 2024. This group is historically responsible for stabilizing Bitcoin during deep corrections, yet their exit into strength earlier in the quarter signaled the exhaustion of the prior bull impulse. Combined with weakening macro conditions and collapsing ETF inflows, the aggressive long-term holder selling added a second layer of structural resistance above current price. This supply pressure is visible in the way Bitcoin has struggled to reclaim the $99K–$100K liquidity band that once acted as the core of the consolidation range.

Trump-Era Deregulation Amplifies Volatility As BTC Responds More Violently To Liquidity Shocks

Bitcoin’s vulnerability to macro shifts has been magnified by the deregulation wave following the 2024 election. The Trump administration rolled back enforcement across multiple agencies, ended several high-profile investigations, and even issued pardons to crypto executives previously convicted of financial crimes. This policy backdrop fueled speculative inflows, driving BTC above $120,000, but also created a market environment where risk-taking became systemic. The absence of regulatory friction enhanced beta during both rallies and breakdowns. This is why Bitcoin has fallen harder than equities during identical macro stress: with guardrails removed, BTC reacts faster and more violently to tightening liquidity.

Daily Structure Confirms A Macro Breakdown As BTC Trades Beneath Both 100-Day And 200-Day Moving Averages

The technical structure reinforces the gravity of the decline. BTC remains lodged below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with each now stacked as layered resistance above price. The rejection at the 100-day MA near $110,000 initiated a displacement candle that wiped out the $99K–$100K cluster—a region where the market had built months of high-volume activity. The sweep beneath this cluster marks the transition from an accumulation range to a distribution breakdown. Now positioned inside the $94K–$96K demand zone, BTC faces a critical test. Historically, this region has served as a foundation for recoveries. But if buyers fail to defend the zone convincingly, price action opens toward the macro support floor at $80K–$82K, which represents the bottom boundary of the broader 2025 cycle structure.

Lower-Timeframe Structure Points To Heavy Flow After Rising-Wedge Breakdown And Failed $106K–$108K Retest

On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin has already completed a full bearish sequence. After breaking down from a rising wedge, BTC retested the underside of the trendline around $106K–$108K, where sellers demonstrated complete control with a sharp rejection. That move confirmed a structural transition from support to resistance and drove BTC directly into the $94K–$96K region. Although the area has historically triggered meaningful reversals, this reaction lacks the force seen in prior cycles. For Bitcoin to regain momentum, it must reclaim the $101K–$103K liquidity pocket. Without that recovery, every bounce remains corrective, and the path of least resistance continues downward.

On-Chain Realized Price Bands Show BTC Trapped Between Short-Term Supply And Mid-Term Support

On-chain analytics paint a sharply defined battlefield. Short-term holders—those in the one-to-three-month and three-to-six-month cohorts—now sit at a loss, with realized prices between $105,000 and $110,000. These levels have morphed into realized supply and will trigger selling pressure on any rally attempt. In contrast, the six-to-twelve-month cohort remains in profit, with realized prices aligning almost perfectly with the current $94K–$96K support area. This mid-term holder band has historically stabilized deep corrections by absorbing capitulation-driven sell pressure. The structure creates a textbook compression pattern: realized resistance overhead and realized support beneath. A sustained move below this band would confirm a deeper capitulation phase.

Technical And Macro Convergence Sets $84K As The Next Major Support Target For BTC-USD

The breakdown beneath the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level just below $100K activates the next major Fibonacci-derived support at $84,000. Ledn CIO John Glover views this as the next destination unless BTC can reclaim the lost range swiftly. His roadmap outlines a choppy path with potential temporary moves back above $100K before a final test of the lower cycle bands. According to his cycle timing, the correction could extend into the summer of 2026 if liquidity conditions deteriorate further.

Sentiment Collapses Into Extreme Fear As Index Falls To 16 And Liquidations Mount

Market psychology has deteriorated aggressively. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index crashed to 16, one of its lowest readings of the year, reflecting a shift from concern to outright fear. Derivatives markets confirmed the panic with long liquidations surpassing $268 million, signaling forced exits rather than voluntary derisking. In historical cycles, extreme fear often precedes powerful recovery rallies—but those reversals typically happen when long-term holders are accumulating, not liquidating 815,000 BTC per month.

Record-Low Exchange Balances Offer One Of The Few Bullish Signals As Supply Leaves Trading Venues

Despite the aggressive selloff, the total supply of Bitcoin held on exchanges has dropped to the lowest level ever recorded. Analyst Merlijn The Trader emphasized that this combination—declining supply with falling price—rarely persists without a significant upside reversal once liquidity conditions ease. This indicates that while traders exit short-term positions, long-term structural conviction remains intact.

Kiyosaki’s Contrarian Stance Adds A Fundamental Long-Term Anchor As He Targets BTC At $250K

Robert Kiyosaki reaffirmed his commitment to Bitcoin despite the downturn, stating he will accumulate more once the crash concludes. He attributes the market decline to a global cash shortage and anticipates a “big print” from governments to inject liquidity into a tightening global system. With a fixed supply of 21 million BTC, he believes Bitcoin and gold will be direct beneficiaries of monetary expansion. He reiterated his $250,000 Bitcoin target for 2026 as part of this long-term thesis.

Liquidity Remains Thin After October’s Washout And Leaves BTC-USD Susceptible To Volatile Whipsaws

The broader crypto liquidity landscape remains compromised. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum order book depth sit far below early-October levels, creating a thin market where modest flows can trigger exaggerated moves. ETF outflows, institutional derisking, and fragile market-maker participation create an environment where BTC remains hypersensitive to shifts in liquidity.

Final Market Position On BTC-USD Based On Macro, Technicals, On-Chain, Holder Behavior And Liquidity Dynamics

Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase defined by structural weakness above and heavy-volume support below. The market has not entered a multi-year bear cycle but has not stabilized enough to call for a sustained rally. BTC-USD is a HOLD with a bearish tilt, awaiting a reclaim of $101K–$103K to regain upward momentum. A failure to defend $94K–$96K opens the door to $84K, then $80K–$82K. A rebound is likely in the near term, but its sustainability depends on overcoming realized resistance at $105K–$110K.

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