Bitcoin Price Forecast: Can BTC-USD Hold Above $70K After the $60K Meltdown?

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Price Forecast – deep reset, high-risk accumulation zone

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – current price, range and volatility backdrop

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades just above $70,000–$71,000 after a violent reset. The coin dropped from about $84,000 to under $76,000, then crashed from roughly $77,000 to $60,000 in a little more than a day, erasing over $10,000 per coin. From that $60,000 low it rebounded sharply toward $72,000, slipped back to around $68,000 and then climbed again into the low $70,000s with daily gains near 2–3%. Price now sits more than 50% below the October 2025 peak near $126,000. Even after the drawdown, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) still carries a market cap around $1.4 trillion and dominance just under 57%, while total crypto market value is close to $2.5 trillion. The structure is a classic crash–snapback pattern: vertical liquidation, aggressive short-covering and now a choppy consolidation under a key psychological level.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – short-term trading map and key price levels

Short-term order flow is clustered in a tight range. There is a notable bid wall near $69,201 of roughly 20 BTC, or about $1.38 million, acting as an intraday floor. On the topside, ask walls around $69,449 and $69,539 cap price and form a narrow ceiling. As long as Bitcoin (BTC-USD) oscillates between that $69,200–$69,500 band, small breaks can trigger sharp stop runs in either direction. A decisive break below $69,201 exposes support levels near $67,850 and then the deeper zone around $60,649. A clean push above the $69,500–$69,600 cluster opens the way back to $70,000–$72,000. For confirmation of real trend repair, the key level is about $72,736 on the daily close. A sustained break above that region would turn attention to the next major resistance near $85,276. Below the market, loss of the $63,007 support would signal that the rebound is failing and put a full retest of the $60,000 panic area and even a slide toward roughly $55,500 on the table.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – the $60,000 panic low and how it reshapes the structure

The plunge to $60,000 marked the lowest print in well over a year and came with broad cross-asset stress. The same week saw a sharp sell-off in stocks, gold and silver, showing that this was a global de-risking phase rather than a crypto-only event. For Bitcoin (BTC-USD), $60,000 now acts as a structural pivot. It is the level where forced sellers exhausted themselves enough for large buyers to step in and where rumor flow about official dip-buying exploded. Holding above that area keeps the door open for a bottoming base. Losing it on high volume would confirm that the current rebound was only a pause in a larger bear leg and would shift focus toward the mid-$50,000s as the next zone of interest.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – daily EMAs, MACD and RSI still point to a bear regime

On the daily chart the trend remains damaged. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades well below its 9-day and 20-day exponential moving averages. The 9-day EMA has already crossed under the 20-day EMA, forming a short-term “death-cross” that signals continued downward momentum in the near term. MACD reinforces this view. The MACD line sits under the signal line in negative territory, and the histogram shows expanding red bars, indicating that selling pressure is still dominant and that the rally is moving against the prevailing trend. RSI dipped toward the oversold band near 30 during the crash, confirming extreme downside momentum. That oversold print helped trigger the bounce but there is still no strong bullish divergence between price and RSI. Without that, the move back into the $70,000 area looks more like a reflex rally inside an ongoing correction than the start of a clean new impulsive up-trend.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – Mayer Multiple at 0.6 and a 40% discount to the 200-day MA

On-chain valuation signals show how deep this reset already is. The Mayer Multiple for Bitcoin (BTC-USD), which divides price by the 200-day moving average, is around 0.6. That means BTC trades roughly 40% below its 200-day moving average. Readings near 1.0 indicate price is close to its long-term trend, values above 1.0 indicate a premium, and values below 1.0 indicate a discount. A 0.6 print is rare and marks a statistical extreme that historically has aligned with late-stage bear markets and early long-term accumulation windows. The metric is not a timing tool. It does not mark the exact bottom and can stay depressed, or even fall further, while price chops in a wide range. What it does flag is that from a long-horizon statistical perspective Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is now cheap relative to its established trend, even though short-term risk remains high.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – how it behaved the last times the Mayer Multiple hit 0.5–0.6

Historical precedents for this zone are clear. In December 2018 the Mayer Multiple for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) dropped into the 0.5–0.6 band while price traded near $3,200. Over the following year BTC rose by more than 540%. During the Covid crash the metric again fell toward 0.5, just as BTC briefly broke down, and the next 12 months delivered roughly 1,100% upside. In November 2022 the Mayer Multiple revisited that same region and the following year saw gains of more than 170%. Each time, the 0.5–0.6 bucket marked a region where long-term buyers were heavily rewarded, even though the absolute lows were only visible with hindsight. Today’s 0.6 reading places Bitcoin (BTC-USD) in that same statistical neighborhood. That does not guarantee immediate upside, but it does frame the current area as a high-risk, high-reward accumulation zone rather than an obvious exit point for multiyear capital.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – unrealized losses at 24% and the state of capitulation

Relative Unrealized Loss adds a second layer. This metric tracks the dollar value of coins held at a loss relative to total market cap. During the recent drop toward $60,000 the ratio jumped to about 24%. That move confirms that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has entered a bear-market regime rather than a mild correction. Many holders are now underwater and every rally invites selling from investors looking to reduce pain. At the same time, the 24% reading sits well below the extreme capitulation spikes above 50% that have marked final cycle lows in the past. The message is simple. The market is already in a heavy loss phase, but a complete “everyone gives up” flush has not yet been printed. There is room for further stress if macro conditions worsen, even though long-term value metrics already flash opportunity.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – wallet cohorts, distribution and small-holder accumulation

Supply distribution by wallet size shows who is actually driving the flows. Addresses with less than 0.01 BTC have been steadily growing their slice of total supply through the drawdown. These small holders are buying Bitcoin (BTC-USD) in small tickets rather than capitulating. In parallel, addresses holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have shown mild net distribution, using both the crash and the subsequent bounce to trim or rebalance. Social sentiment is overwhelmingly negative, which normally appears near fear-driven phases. Yet micro-retail is still quietly adding exposure instead of exiting. This mismatch means optimism has not fully reset. As long as small wallets keep accumulating while larger holders distribute on strength, each rebound risks turning into a selling opportunity for the bigger cohorts, which can cap upside and prolong the bear phase even while long-term metrics suggest value.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – new addresses, network growth and underlying demand

Network usage data does not match the picture of a dying asset. Over the last week the number of new addresses interacting with Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has jumped by roughly 37%. That rise means more participants are entering the network for the first time precisely during high volatility. In previous cycles, strong growth in new addresses during deep corrections has often aligned with slow but steady smart accumulation ahead of the next expansion phase. For the current move this indicates that the long-term thesis around BTC remains intact for a large base of users. New money is still willing to step in at these prices instead of waiting for a return to the prior peak. That said, if global risk assets stay under pressure and funding conditions tighten further, even solid on-chain growth will not fully neutralize macro headwinds in the short term. Network expansion supports the case for long-term upside in Bitcoin (BTC-USD), but does not cancel near-term drawdown risk.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – macro backdrop, stock market today and cross-asset flows

The latest crash and rebound in Bitcoin (BTC-USD) sits inside a broader risk-asset reset. The week of the plunge to $60,000 also saw heavy selling in equities, gold and silver, followed by a sharp relief rally where major U.S. indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq bounced strongly in a single session. That pattern shows that BTC is trading as a high-beta expression of global risk appetite rather than as an asset moving in isolation. When de-leveraging hits, it hits everything at once. When stocks stage a violent rebound, BTC often does the same with larger magnitude. Going forward, each shift in rates expectations, dollar strength and macro policy will feed directly into Bitcoin (BTC-USD) volatility. Equity strength and calmer bond markets support the case that the $60,000 flush may have been a macro-driven overshoot. Renewed stress in stocks or credit would raise the odds of another leg lower toward the $55,500 region.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – politics, reserves and the strategic narrative premium

The latest move has also hardened the political layer around Bitcoin (BTC-USD). A widely shared TV segment claimed that at $60,000 the current administration might “fill” a national Bitcoin reserve, which sparked aggressive speculation that the government had bought the dip. That rumor helped sentiment recover but remains unconfirmed. The official position from the Treasury is more constrained. There is no authority to order banks to buy BTC or to deploy tax dollars directly into it. The only confirmed holdings are seized coins. About $1 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) was confiscated, roughly $500 million was retained and that stack has since grown in value to over $15 billion. That performance illustrates the long-term power of the asset but does not yet amount to an explicit national investment strategy. Politically, the crash to $60,000 has been cited by critics as evidence that the pro-crypto line is failing, while supporters point to the rapid rebound above $70,000 and to the long-run gains in seized reserves as proof that the strategic case is intact. This tug-of-war adds an extra narrative premium and makes each large move in BTC a policy story as well as a market story.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – medium-term price path and scenario framework

For the next leg, the map is clear. The primary battle zone for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) sits between roughly $63,007 and $71,672. Holding above $63,007 and building higher lows above $60,000 would support a medium-term base case of an extended range between about $60,000 and $72,000, with repeated tests of both ends as the market digests losses. A sustained daily close above $71,672, followed by strength through the $72,736 region, would signal that the bear phase is easing. In that scenario, a gradual grind back toward the mid-$80,000s and, later, a run at six-figure levels becomes realistic over a 12–24 month horizon, especially given the current 0.6 Mayer Multiple and the on-chain accumulation signals. The bearish scenario comes into play if $63,007 fails and $60,000 cannot hold on the next test. That would likely drag Bitcoin (BTC-USD) toward the $55,500 area and could push Relative Unrealized Loss toward the extreme capitulation band. Such a move would be painful but would also align the loss metrics with prior cycle washouts and set up the conditions for an even stronger long-term recovery once the dust settles.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) – directional stance: Buy, Sell or Hold and bull/bear bias

Taking all signals together, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is in a confirmed bear regime on the daily trend, but trades at a historically significant discount to its 200-day moving average while new addresses and small-holder accumulation remain strong. Macro conditions are unstable but not catastrophic, and the $60,000 area has already proven to be a zone where aggressive buyers step in. With that backdrop, the stance is clear. Short-term, the bias is still cautious and tactical, with elevated risk of another flush toward $55,500 if $63,007 breaks. Medium-to-long term, the combination of a 0.6 Mayer Multiple, deep unrealized losses and continued network growth argues for a bullish view. The overall call is Buy for investors operating on a 12–24 month horizon, with Bitcoin (BTC-USD) treated as a high-volatility accumulation opportunity rather than a low-risk trade. The bear trend on the chart is real, the path to new highs will be rough, but the current zone offers asymmetric upside for capital that can tolerate further drawdown before the next expansion phase.

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