Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC-USD Holds $115K, Eyes $120K Breakout

Bitcoin Price Holds Near $115,000 as Fed Decision Looms

The price of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is locked in a crucial battle around $115,000, a level that traders call pivotal heading into the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. At the time of writing, BTC trades at $114,770, down nearly 1% on the day, after peaking at $116,800 late last week. The market is digesting institutional inflows, ETF activity, and mounting macroeconomic signals that are shaping both short-term volatility and long-term direction.

Key Technical Levels: $114K, $116K and $117K in Focus

Technical signals show that Bitcoin faces stiff resistance between $116,000 and $117,200. Analysts argue that reclaiming $114,000 as firm support is essential for sustaining bullish sentiment. Trader Titan of Crypto highlighted that a weekly close above $115,000 would confirm momentum, aligning with Ichimoku Cloud metrics that flagged upside breakouts earlier this year. Failure to hold $115K risks a correction toward $112,500–$113,500, while a breakout above $117K opens the path to $120,000 and potentially $122,000, the target from a bull flag structure visible on the 4-hour chart.

The RSI at 54 remains supportive of an uptrend but shows fading strength, while a recent MACD bullish crossover from September 6 remains intact. Importantly, a golden cross between the 50- and 200-period moving averages supports the bullish camp, suggesting the broader trend still favors upside.

Institutional Demand and ETF Inflows Strengthen the Floor

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded their strongest week since mid-July, with $2.34 billion in inflows last week. Data from Glassnode showed that on September 10 alone, inflows reached 5,900 BTC, the largest single-day tally in two months. These flows are nearly nine times the weekly supply of newly mined Bitcoin, effectively tightening liquidity and underpinning price stability.

Major corporates have also been adding to reserves: Capital B boosted its holdings to 2,249 BTC after adding 48 coins, while healthcare firm Prenetics raised its total to 228 BTC and announced a daily accumulation strategy. Governments are expanding reserves as well—collectively holding 526,394 BTC worth over $61 billion, with the U.S. and China accounting for more than 190,000 BTC each.

Binance Scarcity Index Points to Supply Crunch

On-chain data adds another layer of bullish evidence. CryptoQuant’s Binance Scarcity Index spiked over the weekend, signaling strong buying activity outweighing available supply. The index reached 2.94, the highest since June, when Bitcoin rallied toward $124,000. If sustained, this imbalance between demand and supply could propel BTC higher in the coming weeks.

Fed Rate Cuts and Macro Tailwinds Shape Momentum

Markets are fully pricing a 25-basis-point Fed cut this week, with a 94–96% probability according to CME FedWatch. A smaller chance—around 3–5%—remains for a 50-point cut. Rate easing is arriving in unusual conditions: equities are at record highs, with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) at 6,611 and the Dow (^DJI) above 45,850, while labor data is softening. Historically, Bitcoin rallies when credit becomes cheaper, and current conditions echo previous cycles where Fed stimulus fueled speculative appetite.

Analysts at Mosaic Asset Company noted that the Fed’s pivot, coupled with strong market breadth and easing financial conditions, “favors an ongoing expansion,” supporting both equities and Bitcoin. At the same time, commentary from The Kobeissi Letter stressed that the “AI revolution and rate cuts” are creating a unique environment where long-term asset owners will “party,” with Bitcoin and gold leading the move.

Bull Market Top Debate: $124K, $140K or Beyond?

While BTC peaked at $124,500 earlier this year, analysts remain divided on whether that was the cycle high. Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, argues that the Max Intersect SMA model, historically accurate in calling cycle tops, has not yet flashed a signal. His projections suggest a top closer to $140,000 by October, with some chart-based models even pointing toward $160,000 in the months ahead. Traders like Jelle see potential for a 35% rally toward $155,000, citing bullish stochastic RSI signals on the weekly chart.

Bond Market Signals Add to Bitcoin’s Case

Outside crypto-specific flows, credit markets provide another bullish indicator. The ICE BofA High Yield Index shows yields declining, a trend that historically correlates with Bitcoin rallies. Lower junk bond yields imply easing credit risk and stronger appetite for speculative assets. Analysts highlight this as an underappreciated tailwind that aligns with ETF inflows and on-chain scarcity.

Distribution vs Accumulation: Short-Term Risk Still Present

Despite bullish macro trends, distribution patterns remain visible. Glassnode’s Trend Accumulation Score shows investor cohorts holding below the 0.5 threshold, meaning many are prioritizing profit-taking rather than building positions. RSI weakness and failure to defend $115K as firm support could trigger a retest of $112,500, undermining near-term optimism.

Strategic View: Buy, Sell, or Hold on BTC-USD

Balancing all data—ETF inflows of $2.34 billion, government reserves surpassing 526,000 BTC, technical resistance at $117K, and Fed-driven macro tailwinds—the medium-term setup remains bullish. However, near-term risks tied to distribution and fading RSI momentum suggest volatility before a decisive breakout.

At current levels of $114,770–$115,000, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is a Buy for investors targeting a breakout toward $120,000–$122,000, with the possibility of extending toward $140,000 if cycle patterns hold. Traders must remain alert to support zones at $114K and $112.5K, as losing those levels would temporarily weaken the bullish structure.

That'a TradingNEWS