Bitcoin Price Clears Key $117,335 Level: ETF Demand and Whale Activity Ignite Rally Toward $131K

Reshaping the Four-Year Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Cycle

Since the April 2024 halving event reduced miner rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, Bitcoin’s price action has defied the textbook four-year cycle that previously saw fresh peaks 12–18 months post-halving. Instead of surging after the halving, BTC-USD climbed to an all-time high above $73,000 in March 2024—nearly a month before the protocol’s programmed supply reduction—then settled into a consolidation phase trading largely between $110,000 and $123,000 through mid-2025. The long-standing rhythm of dramatic post-halving rallies followed by 70–80 percent drawdowns now feels disrupted, as new drivers have eclipsed the once-predictable halving effect.

Institutional Front-Running and Corporate Treasury Strategies

The advent of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in January 2024 introduced a powerful institutional cohort that front-ran the traditional post-halving rally. Within 18 months these ETFs absorbed over $15 billion in net inflows, channeling deep-pocketed capital into BTC-USD without the logistics of self-custody. Meanwhile, public companies have amassed Bitcoin on their balance sheets: MicroStrategy remains the poster child with 600,000 BTC—more than 3 percent of the total supply—while Tesla and Trump Media Group have quietly expanded their holdings to diversify reserves and hedge against inflation. This corporate accumulation, driven by the promise of capital appreciation and investor appeal, marks a fundamental shift from retail-led speculation to treasury asset management.

On-Chain Dynamics and Energy-Value Disparities

Despite the consolidation in price, on-chain indicators paint a complex portrait of supply and demand. The Exchange Whale Ratio for BTC-USD has climbed to 0.52, its highest reading since early 2023, historically signaling that large holders may be preparing to deposit coins onto exchanges for sale. Active daily addresses have dropped to roughly 131,000 and transactions to 219,000—down approximately 18 percent and 12 percent respectively from spring peaks—indicating a lull in retail participation. Yet August 7 saw $33.25 million of net positive spot flows, hinting at intermittent institutional buys.

Compounding these signals is Capriole Investments’ Energy-Value metric, which calculates a “fair price” for Bitcoin based on miner energy costs, network hashrate, and supply growth. With hashrate at a record 1.031 zettahashes per second, the metric pegs BTC-USD fair value at approximately $167,800—45 percent above today’s $116,300 spot—implying that price remains 31 percent below the energy-backed baseline that sustains miner economics.

Technical Architecture and Momentum Inflection Points

From a charting perspective, Bitcoin exhibits a classic bullish flag: a sharp rally into the $123,000 zone in late July, followed by a pullback that found support at the 50-day simple moving average near $113,157. A daily close above $117,335—the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement—has reignited positive momentum, with the Relative Strength Index recovering above 54 without tipping into overbought territory. If BTC-USD sustains above $117,335 for multiple sessions, measured-move targets project toward $126,980 and potentially $131,575 in the coming weeks.

On the shorter timeframe, Bitcoin has been confined within a descending channel since peaking near $123,000. A successful break above $116,000—also the 50 percent retracement of the $98,000–$123,000 swing—would validate a bullish reversal and pave the way for another test of the all-time high. Conversely, a breakdown below $110,685, which coincides with the 200-day moving average, could trigger a deeper correction toward the psychological $100,000 level.

Retail Adoption Meets Regulatory Crosswinds

Real-world use cases have quietly blossomed, especially across U.S. retail. Convenience chain Sheetz reported 22 percent more BTC purchases than miner issuance levels by offering 50 percent savings on payment fees for crypto transactions between 3 pm and 7 pm. Steak ‘n Shake echoed similar fee advantages, underscoring how merchants increasingly view Bitcoin not merely as an investment but as a payment tool that lowers costs compared to credit card networks.

Regulatory policy, however, is diverging across the Atlantic. In the United States, President Trump’s administration has signaled support by green-lighting cryptocurrency inclusion in 401(k) retirement plans—potentially unlocking $9 trillion of pension capital. In contrast, the European Banking Authority’s imposition of a 1,250 percent risk weight on unbacked crypto assets discourages EU banks from holding Bitcoin, effectively curbing institutional participation outside North America.

Options Market: Structured Bets Overoutlier Gambles

The derivatives landscape further reflects tempered expectations. Call option open interest on BTC-USD stands at $6.45 billion, dwarfing $2.36 billion in puts, yet only $878 million of those calls are likely to finish in the money if price remains near $116,500 by December 26. Savvy traders have concentrated in diagonal spreads targeting $146,000 by October and inverse butterflies centered around $160,000 into year-end—strategies that cap downside while leveraging for realistic upside, rather than outright betting on a $200,000 blow-off scenario with sub-3 percent probability.

Strategic Assessment and Positioning

The era of brutal 70–80 percent drawdowns appears receding, replaced by tame 30–50 percent corrections driven by macro shocks or regulatory surprises. Institutional liquidity, robust custody solutions, and evolving technical patterns support the case for continued upward drift, provided BTC-USD remains above key supports at $113,000 and $110,685. On these foundations, a disciplined entry in the $113,000–$116,000 zone aligns with measured-move targets of $131,000 and beyond.

Position Recommendation: Buy
Anchoring positions near long-term support with a stop-loss below $110,685 and scaling out as Bitcoin tests the $131,000–$150,000 range allows investors to capitalize on the next structural leg in BTC-USD’s evolution.

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