Coinbase Stock at $238.75 Eyes $255 Breakout on Crypto Surge

COIN Extends Rally as Bitcoin Surge Lifts Crypto Sector

Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN) closed the latest session at $238.75, marking a 4.8% daily gain and extending its monthly advance to +22.4%. The rally is closely correlated with Bitcoin (BTC-USD) reclaiming the $64,000 level, sparking a surge in spot crypto ETF volumes and reinforcing bullish sentiment across digital assets. COIN’s performance has also outpaced the Nasdaq Composite, underscoring its leverage to crypto market momentum.

Institutional demand is showing strong recovery, with Coinbase Prime reporting notable inflows from asset managers reallocating capital into digital assets. Retail participation is equally robust, with transaction counts and average order sizes increasing since mid-July, signaling a broad-based rebound in platform activity.

Technical Structure and Key Price Levels

Short-term support is firmly established at $228.50, aligning with intraday consolidation zones from late last week. Deeper support rests at $219.00, coinciding with the 20-day moving average (20-DMA). Resistance is positioned at $242.80, a level tested twice in April without a sustained breakout, and further overhead resistance sits at $255.00, last reached on March 27.

A decisive close above $255.00 would be technically significant, unlocking potential upside toward $270.00. Conversely, a daily close below $219.00 could shift momentum to the downside, targeting $205.00, which aligns with the 50-DMA.

Earnings Momentum and Revenue Composition

In Q2, Coinbase delivered $1.46 billion in total revenue, beating consensus estimates of $1.38 billion. Transaction revenue rose 17% sequentially to $905 million, supported by higher trading volumes across BTC, ETH, and SOL. Subscription and services revenue surged to $510 million, driven by USDC interest income, staking rewards, and custody fees.

Adjusted EBITDA of $475 million represented the strongest margin performance since late 2021, with EBITDA margin improving to 32.5% versus 25.7% in the prior quarter. Management reaffirmed its guidance for positive adjusted EBITDA in FY 2025, even under lower crypto volatility scenarios, signaling structural profitability improvements.

Regulatory Risk and Legal Positioning

The ongoing SEC lawsuit remains the primary overhang. However, the tone in recent court rulings involving Ripple Labs and Grayscale has shifted in favor of industry participants, raising market confidence that Coinbase may secure either a partial dismissal or a settlement pathway in 2025.

Global diversification remains a strategic priority. In the past quarter, Coinbase secured licensing approvals in France, Spain, and Singapore, expanding its operating jurisdictions and reducing dependency on U.S.-specific compliance frameworks. This strategic positioning could allow COIN to capture market share in regions with clearer regulatory structures.

Market Share Recovery and Competitive Position

COIN’s U.S. spot crypto trading market share has rebounded to 55%, up from 49% at the start of 2025, thanks to enhanced liquidity programs and narrower bid-ask spreads. Retail trading volume rose 29% quarter-over-quarter, while institutional trading volumes surged 34%, reflecting parallel growth drivers.

The platform’s derivatives trading pilot, currently live in select international markets, has seen strong uptake, hinting at a potential revenue diversification path if expanded to U.S. customers post-regulatory clearance.

Momentum Indicators and RSI Levels

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 64, below the overbought threshold but high enough to warrant cautious position sizing for new entrants. The MACD line remains in bullish alignment, with the histogram showing sustained positive momentum. Price remains comfortably above both the 50-DMA ($205) and 200-DMA ($186), reinforcing a medium-term bullish structure.

A short-term bullish trigger would be a breakout above $242.80, which could quickly test $255.00. Sustained trading above $255 would strengthen the case for $270 as the next resistance target.

Trading Playbook and Risk Management

Aggressive swing traders can accumulate on dips toward $230–$232, with stop-loss levels just under $219.00 to protect against a momentum reversal. First upside targets should be set at $242.80, followed by $255.00.

Breakout traders should consider entering long positions only on a confirmed daily close above $242.80, targeting $255.00 and $270.00. For options traders, bull call spreads in the $250–$270 range over the next 4–6 weeks may offer a favorable risk-reward profile, especially given elevated implied volatility in crypto-linked equities.

Verdict on NASDAQ:COIN at $238.75

Rating: Buy on Strength. Coinbase’s Q2 earnings beat, recovering market share, global expansion, and leverage to the ongoing crypto rally put the stock in a strong position to test $255.00 in the near term. While regulatory risks remain, the improving legal climate and diversification strategy add a layer of resilience. A confirmed breakout above $255 would justify increasing exposure, with $270 as the next bullish milestone. A close below $219 would shift bias to Hold until a fresh base forms.

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