Ethereum’s Ascending Channel and Momentum Indicators
From mid-April through early August, ETH-USD has carved an unmistakable upward trajectory within a well-defined ascending channel, tracing higher swing lows from $3,200 to $3,729 and higher peaks from $3,936 to $4,013. On the daily timeframe, both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages now slope upward beneath the price, with the 100-day MA crossing above the 200-day MA in late June—a classic golden crossover that signaled a shift in trend. The Relative Strength Index maintains a bullish posture around 66, recently dipping from overbought territory but remaining comfortably above its 50 midpoint. A decisive breakout above the channel’s upper trendline near $4,107 would open the door to retesting the all-time high of $4,867 and targeting a psychological barrier at $5,000. Conversely, a rejection from this boundary could see the price retrace toward the $3,600–$3,700 region, where dynamic support from the 50-day EMA and the channel’s midline converge.
On-Chain Accumulation and Whale Activity
Large-scale Ethereum purchasers have played a critical role in this rally. Onchain analytics firm Lookonchain reported an institutional buyer amassing $667 million of ETH over four days, while a notable whale reentered the market by acquiring 3,358 ETH ($12.85 million) after an earlier $19.81 million sell-off. These smart-money inflows coincide with record high daily transactions, which surged to 1.74 million on August 6th—the busiest since May 2021—and monthly volume exceeding 46 million. Network fundamentals have strengthened alongside price action: staked ETH now represents over 15% of total supply, and daily active addresses have climbed above 350,000, signaling robust user engagement. Historically, such concentrated accumulation events precede sustained rallies, reinforcing the probability of further gains beyond the $4,000 threshold.
Institutional Treasury Builds and ETF Inflows
Mimicking Bitcoin’s institutional playbook, a growing roster of Ethereum treasury entities has deployed billions into ETH. BitMine leads with a 833,000-ETH ($3.3 billion) position, SharpLinkGaming holds nearly 522,000 ETH ($2.1 billion), and The Ether Machine commands 345,000 ETH ($1.4 billion). Standard Chartered’s latest analysis projects these treasuries could expand to 10% of circulating supply over time, potentially injecting another $50 billion of demand. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have attracted nearly $5 billion in net inflows over the past month, outperforming Bitcoin ETF flows on a relative basis. This confluence of corporate treasuries and ETF subscriptions has created a long-term bid that underpins price support and tilts market structure toward further upside.
Macro Drivers, Regulatory Signals, and Network Upgrades
Broader macroeconomic shifts have also buoyed ETH-USD. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September—now priced at over 90% probability—tend to favor risk assets and non-yielding tokens like Ethereum. In the regulatory sphere, the potential for SEC approval of staking features in U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs stands as the next catalyst, promising direct yield opportunities within a regulated vehicle. Onchain progress continues apace: the Shanghai upgrade has unlocked over 24 million staked ETH, improving liquidity dynamics, while layer-2 adoption on networks such as Polygon and Optimism has surged, collectively processing over 20 million transactions in July. These technical and regulatory milestones, combined with favorable macro tailwinds, create a fertile environment for ETH-USD to extend its gains toward $4,500 and beyond.
