Ethereum Price Forecast: Can ETH Hold $2,000 and Reach $2,380 Next?

Ethereum (ETH-USD) price: 40% drawdown, violent rebound around $2,050 forces a reset

Ethereum (ETH-USD) after the crash: from $2,380 and $2,300 down to $1,740–$1,865, now fighting near $2,040–$2,050

Ethereum (ETH-USD) has just taken a hit that matters. Over roughly ten days it dropped about 40%, sliding from the $2,300–$2,380 zone to an intraday floor around $1,740 and a second low near $1,865, before clawing back above $2,000. Spot quotes now sit roughly in the $2,040–$2,050 area, with intraday spikes toward $2,100 as buyers test how much of the spillover from the broader crypto flush has been absorbed.
Market cap stands near $240–$245 billion, while 24-hour trading volume has shrunk to around $53 billion after the liquidation spike, down more than 25% from the peak of the panic phase. That combination – price bouncing, volume fading – tells you this bounce is real but still fragile.

On the momentum side, daily RSI collapsed into the high-teens (around 18–19) at the bottom and has only crawled back toward the low-30s. Stochastic oscillators also moved out of deeply oversold territory but remain far from any overheated signal. This is classic “early rebound after capitulation,” not a mature uptrend.

The key cash levels are now clear: $1,740 is the line where forced selling finally stalled, $1,865 is the secondary pivot, and $2,100–$2,115 is the immediate ceiling. If Ethereum can sustain closes above $2,100, the obvious upside magnet is the prior congestion zone near $2,380; failure there keeps the risk of another run back at $1,740 very much alive.

Derivatives and liquidations: $136 million flushed, open interest climbs again, leverage comes back fast

The latest bounce in Ethereum (ETH-USD) is not driven by quiet long-only spot buying; it’s built on the back of derivatives desks resetting risk. Over the last 24 hours, around $136 million in ETH futures positions were liquidated, with roughly $87 million of that on the short side. That means the latter part of the rebound was literally shorts being forced to buy back into a rising tape.

Open interest behavior confirms it. After the initial flush, ETH derivatives OI climbed from about $22.9 billion to around $25.2 billion, showing that new money stepped back in immediately after the margin washout rather than waiting for confirmation. That is not the footprint of a conservative environment; it’s aggressive traders trying to play a V-shaped snapback.

This structure has two consequences. First, as long as Ethereum holds above $2,000, squeezed shorts can still add fuel toward $2,100 and possibly $2,380. Second, because a big chunk of the move is leverage-driven, any rejection at $2,100–$2,380 can quickly turn into another cascade if funding flips, risk appetite fades or macro headlines shift back to stress.

Whale capitulation: Trend Research unloads 772,865 ETH, retail cohorts dump 820,000 ETH in a week

The on-chain picture shows a clear capitulation event, not just routine profit-taking. The leveraged whale wallet labeled Trend Research had accumulated about 792,532 ETH – roughly $2.6 billion at previous levels – using borrowing on centralized venues. As price slid, that position moved toward its liquidation zone. Instead of trying to hold, Trend Research pushed 772,865 ETH back onto the exchange, crystallizing around $747 million in losses and slashing its balance to roughly 21,301 ETH.

Across the mid-tier brackets, wallets holding 100–1,000 ETH and 1,000–10,000 ETH dumped roughly 820,000 ETH over the last week. That’s not “tourists taking some chips off the table”; it’s core holders cutting exposure into stress.

Capitulation of this size cuts both ways. On the bearish side, it proves that even “strong hands” can be forced to exit when a 40% drawdown hits into high leverage. On the bullish side, it mechanically reduces future selling pressure: those distressed coins are now in new hands with fresher cost bases, and Trend Research’s liquidation removes a large overhang that was sitting on an obvious liquidation trigger.

For Ethereum (ETH-USD), the combination of whale de-risking and mid-size wallet distribution means the market just passed through a genuine stress test. Whether this becomes a durable low or just a pause depends on how quickly new structural buyers absorb that freed supply.

BitMine’s 4.28 million ETH treasury: stock swings, $8 billion unrealized losses and why it matters for ETH

The listed treasury play BitMine Immersion is effectively a leveraged bet on Ethereum (ETH-USD). The firm holds about 4,285,125 ETH, worth roughly $8.4 billion at current prices, and has seen its on-paper losses balloon to around $8.0 billion at the trough, or about 49% of its cost basis according to recent estimates.

Equity investors punished that drawdown hard. Earlier in the week, BitMine stock dropped about 11% to roughly $18.05, a seven-month low. Then, as ETH rebounded above $2,000, BitMine shares ripped 17.64% higher to close at $20.47, with after-hours trading nudging it to $20.66. That’s still far from its $161 peak, but the move tracks ETH’s behavior almost tick-for-tick.

The message for Ethereum itself is straightforward. As long as corporates and listed treasuries park millions of ETH on balance sheets, each deep drawdown will show up twice: once in the coin’s price and once in the equity market’s risk pricing. When the crypto cycle turns up, that structure amplifies upside; in a drawdown, it compounds volatility. Tom Lee’s framing – that “unrealized losses are a feature, not a bug” of an ETH treasury – tells you these holders are prepared to ride through multi-billion dollar swings, but equity investors will not stay calm indefinitely if ETH fails to recover.

If ETH can regain and stabilize above the $2,380 region and build toward the mid-$3,000s, BitMine’s market cap near $9.3 billion will start to look conservative versus its treasury leverage. If ETH revisits or breaks below $1,740, the stock becomes a pressure point again and a possible sentiment drag for Ethereum (ETH-USD).

Narrative risk and Tom Lee’s “future of finance” call: V-shape history vs current 40% drawdown

Tom Lee has been explicit: Ethereum is “the future of finance.” He points out that ETH has seen similar or even steeper declines – 60% or more – seven times in the last eight years, and that past cycles often delivered V-shaped recoveries off those extreme drawdowns.

The latest move fits that pattern on the left side: a rapid 40% collapse, RSI in the teens, heavy liquidations, and whales cutting positions under duress. The right side of the pattern – the aggressive follow-through – still needs to be proven. ETH has bounced from $1,740–$1,865 to above $2,000, but a textbook V-shape would demand a decisive break over $2,380 and then an attack on the prior major distribution zones above $3,000.

Vitalik Buterin’s recent comment that “ETH is a store of value and one of the most important apps on Ethereum” reinforces the structural narrative: Ethereum (ETH-USD) is not only infrastructure for DeFi and NFTs, but also trying to claim a monetary premium. That dual role supports high long-term targets, but the current price near $2,050 shows the market is not willing to pay anything close to the $8,000–$14,000 levels that bullish institutional forecasts once projected for the 2024–2025 window.

The gap between those earlier $8,000 / $14,000 scenarios and today’s $2,000 reality is important. It tells you that ETF optimism, upgrade narratives like Dencun, and “future of finance” branding can all be right directionally but still wildly off in timing and magnitude. For Ethereum, that means every big target needs to be discounted through the lens of how the market handled this 40% drawdown.

ETF and institutional angle: $8,000 and $14,000 targets versus a $2,000 spot price

Standard Chartered previously laid out a path where spot Ethereum (ETH-USD) ETFs and major upgrades could push ETH to $8,000 and then $14,000 in the mid-decade window. The logic: ETF approval unlocks regulated capital, Dencun and similar upgrades slash fees and boost usage, and ETH’s role as base collateral in DeFi magnifies demand.

Today ETH trades a little above $2,000, not four or seven times that level. Some of the logic still holds – ETFs do change the access profile, and cheaper blockspace is a structural positive – but the market has just demonstrated it will not follow linear extrapolation. A 40% drop in ten days in the middle of that theoretical ETF ramp proves volatility has not been tamed.

For current pricing, the ETF narrative is still supportive. It puts a floor under how far large allocators are willing to walk away from Ethereum, and it provides a clear path for renewed demand once macro stress eases. For valuation, though, the target band that matters over the next leg is narrower: if ETF flows and lower fees regain momentum, a move from $2,000 back toward $3,000–$4,000 is realistic; $8,000 and $14,000 remain long-horizon scenarios rather than levels the market is currently discounting.

That distinction matters for positioning. At $2,000 with a fresh 40% drawdown behind it, Ethereum is priced much closer to cycle stress than to euphoric ETF pricing. That asymmetry is favorable for medium-term bulls as long as the network continues to grow and the upgrade roadmap does not stall.

Short-term technical map for Ethereum (ETH-USD): $1,740 support, $2,100 trigger, $2,380 pivot

Price action over the last stretch has carved out a clear technical framework for Ethereum (ETH-USD). The first critical zone is $1,740–$1,800, where the latest crash finally found buyers willing to step in size. That area coincides with the deepest part of the liquidation spike and marks the level where both RSI and Stoch bottomed.

The second zone is $2,100–$2,115. ETH has already tested this band after bouncing from $1,740–$1,865. This is the immediate resistance cluster formed by the top of the most recent intraday recovery, a psychological round number, and the lower bound of the prior $2,300–$2,380 range.

If Ethereum can close firmly above $2,100 and hold that level on retests, the path toward $2,380 opens. That $2,380 area represents the point where the last push higher failed and where a lot of late longs from the pre-crash phase are still trapped. It will not be broken on the first attempt without a real shift in flows and macro narrative.

On the downside, a loss of $2,000 and then $1,865 would signal that the bounce was mainly a short-covering spasm. A daily close back below $1,800, and especially under $1,740, would tell you the market is not finished with the purge and that a deeper reset – potentially toward pre-ETF or pre-upgrade levels – is on the table.

With RSI still below neutral and oscillators just edging out of oversold, Ethereum (ETH-USD) has room to extend this rebound technically. But until $2,380 is reclaimed, it remains a high-volatility trading market, not a confirmed sustained uptrend.

Macro and cross-asset backdrop: crypto cap above $2.4T, extreme fear, BTC near $69,000 and ETH lag

The broader environment is not neutral. Total crypto market capitalization has recovered above $2.4 trillion after the liquidation wave that pushed volumes up toward $306 billion in a single day and then back down to around $200 billion. Sentiment gauges still show “extreme fear,” which fits a tape where prices bounce hard yet traders remain skeptical.

Bitcoin trades near $69,000–$70,000 after rebounding from lows around $60,000–$64,000. That bounce has pulled the whole complex higher. ETH’s move – from roughly $1,740–$1,865 to around $2,050 with intraday touches toward $2,100 – is broadly in line with BTC’s recovery percentage-wise, but structurally ETH is underperforming the most bullish pre-crash narratives.

ETFs tied to major coins have flipped back to net inflows after two to three days of consistent outflows during the worst of the volatility. That matters for Ethereum (ETH-USD) because every day of net inflows through regulated products increases the base of holders that are not operating on 50x leverage and 5-minute charts.

At the same time, thinner weekend liquidity and the high share of derivatives-driven activity mean the next 48–72 hours can easily print both sharp wicks higher and deep intraday pullbacks without changing the bigger picture. Until macro data – non-farm payrolls, CPI, rates expectations – stabilizes, ETH will keep reacting violently to dollar swings and risk-on / risk-off flips.

Positioning and risk balance for Ethereum (ETH-USD): where the tape is vulnerable and where it has an edge

Right now, Ethereum (ETH-USD) sits at a crossroads. On one side, heavy whale capitulation, $136 million in recent ETH liquidations, Trend Research’s near-liquidation event and BitMine’s multi-billion unrealized losses show how brutal the flush has been. On the other side, every one of those events has already happened; they are in the price.

The risk side:

– A failure at $2,100–$2,115 and a slide back under $2,000 would invite another round of de-risking.
– A break of $1,740 would signal that the market is willing to test levels that invalidate the latest “this is the bottom” narratives.
– ETF optimism and ambitious $8,000–$14,000 targets will be aggressively marked down if macro data stay hostile or if regulatory noise picks up again.

The opportunity side:

– A market that just absorbed a 40% drawdown with RSI in the teens, extreme fear readings and huge whale losses is usually closer to the beginning of a base than to the top.
– Structural factors – Dencun-style fee cuts, the DeFi/NFT/app stack, and the “future of finance” narrative – did not disappear during this correction; they were repriced.
– ETF channels and corporate treasuries like BitMine’s 4.28 million ETH stash anchor Ethereum in institutional portfolios in a way that previous cycles did not enjoy.

The result is a skewed setup: downside risk absolutely remains, but the price around $2,000 reflects a lot of pain already booked.

Ethereum (ETH-USD) – buy, sell or hold after a 40% flush and a rebound above $2,000?

Taking all the numbers together – the drop from above $2,300 to $1,740, the current Ethereum (ETH-USD) price near $2,040–$2,050, the $1,740 support, the $2,100 trigger, the $2,380 pivot, roughly $136 million in recent ETH liquidations, whale capitulation of over 772,000 ETH, mid-tier wallets unloading 820,000 ETH, BitMine’s 4.28 million ETH treasury sitting on ~$8 billion in unrealized losses, and the still-intact ETF and upgrade narrative – the stance is clear.

At these levels, Ethereum (ETH-USD) leans bullish with a high-volatility BUY bias, not a neutral hold and not a short.

The reasoning is straightforward. A 40% drawdown that flushes leveraged whales, drives RSI into the teens, triggers nine-figure liquidations and drags a major treasury play to a seven-month low usually marks the kind of stress point where medium-term entries are rewarded, as long as the core thesis is alive. The core thesis – Ethereum as programmable settlement, collateral backbone and emerging store of value – is still in place, and the path to higher institutional exposure through ETFs remains open.

The trade-off is that this is not a low-risk, slow-drip environment. A BUY view at ~$2,000–$2,050 requires accepting that dips back to $1,865 or even retests of $1,740 are possible before any sustainable run toward $2,380 and then $3,000–$4,000. For those who can handle that volatility and think in months and years rather than days, the current zone just above $2,000 is where Ethereum (ETH-USD) offers more upside asymmetry than it has since before the latest crash.

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