XRP ETF Surge: XRPI and XRPR Rip Higher as XRP Reclaims the $1.50 Zone

XRP ETF snapback: XRPI, XRPR, Bitwise XRP ETF and XRP-USD after the washout

XRPI – NASDAQ XRP ETF explodes 27% off the floor as wrappers re-price XRP risk

XRPI on NASDAQ is trading around $8.65, up +$1.85 on the day, a surge of roughly 27.28% from the previous close at $6.80. Price has traded in a $8.07–$8.83 intraday band and is still sitting near the bottom of its $6.50–$23.53 one-year range, which tells you exactly where this product sits in the sentiment cycle: early in a potential recovery, not late in a euphoric blow-off.

The combination of a 20%+ jump in XRP-USD and a sharp reset in derivatives positioning is feeding straight into XRP ETF wrappers. With average daily volume for XRPI near 569.9K shares, a day like this pulls in incremental flow, compresses spreads, and drags the ETF off the 52-week floor. The key is that this is happening while global spot crypto ETF flows are under pressure, not in a broad risk-on environment. That makes the 27% move more than noise: capital is selectively reallocating into XRP-linked structures while money is still walking out of Bitcoin products.

The gap between the year low at $6.50 and today’s $8.65 close is small compared with the upside back to the old high at $23.53. That asymmetry is exactly why desk money is prepared to absorb volatility here. The ETF is still priced as a distressed asset relative to its own history, but the tape has flipped from forced selling to aggressive short-term repricing.

XRPR – REX Osprey XRP ETF turns from forgotten product to 25% spike in a single session

XRPR on BATS has tracked the underlying XRP rebound with even more violence. Price is around $12.22, up +$2.50 or 25.72% on the session from $9.72 the prior day. Intra-day, XRPR traded between $11.55–$12.54, again bouncing from the lower edge of its $9.50–$25.99 52-week corridor.

Average volume on XRPR is only 12.41K shares, so a +25% day tells you liquidity is thin and price is extremely sensitive to marginal demand. This product behaves more like a thinly traded satellite exposure than a core wrapper like XRPI. The reward is torque: a modest notional chase into XRPR can move the quote multiple points intraday. The cost is execution risk and wider bid-ask during stress.

Structurally, both XRPI and XRPR are reacting to the same macro trigger: the underlying XRP-USD has rebounded more than 20% from an intraday low near $1.12 back toward the $1.36–$1.50 band. The ETFs are simply repricing that shift, amplified by their own liquidity profiles. XRPR’s shallow book makes it a high-beta proxy on top of already volatile XRP.

XRP-USD – spot price pinned between a $1.50–$1.09 washout zone and a $2.00 recovery target

Spot XRP-USD is trading around $1.49–$1.50, after bouncing more than 21% from an intraday trough near $1.12. That move has pulled the token off the lows but it still sits below every key trend line:

• 50-day EMA roughly $1.88

• 100-day EMA around $2.05

• 200-day EMA near $2.22

All three moving averages are sloping lower, which keeps the higher-timeframe structure bearish even as short-term momentum improves.

Several pieces of analysis converge on a “washout zone” between roughly $1.50 and $1.09. Below the failed base around $1.20, there is very little historical support until the round $1.00 handle. That’s why the break under $1.60 triggered a 15% slide and roughly $47M in long liquidations: once the floor gave way, the order book was thin down to the next real demand cluster.

At the same time, on-chain and sentiment data show a different profile compared with Bitcoin and Ethereum. While BTC-USD is dealing with extreme pessimism after trading into the $60,000 zone and flirting with scenarios toward $50,000, positioning around XRP-USD is more balanced. Price is weak, but there is no wholesale capitulation in behavior. That sets up a clear framework:

• Hold above $1.30 on a daily closing basis and reclaim $1.45–$1.50 → the market starts to re-price toward the $2.00 area as a realistic medium-term target.

• Lose $1.20 convincingly and then $1.09–$1.00 comes into play, with the next demand band in the $1.15–$1.20 pocket only acting as a speed bump.

Right now, XRP-USD is trading in the middle of that battle. The bounce off $1.12 is meaningful; it just isn’t confirmed until the chart closes back above the broken shelves.

XRP ETF Bitwise – volume, inflows and AUM show quiet accumulation while majors bleed

While the broader market fixates on Bitcoin spot ETF outflows, the flow tape around XRP ETF Bitwise and peers is telling a different story.

On the ETF side, US-listed XRP products have logged roughly $1.21 billion in cumulative inflows, with current net assets around $888 million. Over the latest three-day stretch alone, XRP-linked ETFs pulled in about $19.5M, $4.8M, and $1.28M in net new capital, even as price traded lower earlier in the week. One day recorded almost $79.2M in trading volume across these wrappers, with the Bitwise XRP ETF handling around $40.6M of that turnover.

Contrast that with flows into major crypto ETFs:

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw approximately $258M in net outflows over one recent day and nearly $1B over two sessions in a separate stretch.

• Ethereum funds shed around $72–$80.8M in the same window.

So while capital is leaving BTC and ETH wrappers, there is still fresh money stepping into XRP ETF products. The direction of travel is important: this is rotation within the crypto ETF complex, not blind risk-off across the entire space. Allocators are cutting high-beta majors and selectively adding XRP-USD exposure via regulated vehicles.

That explains why XRPI and XRPR can post +25–27% days while Bitcoin ETFs are dealing with hundreds of millions in redemptions.

Derivatives, liquidations and open interest – leverage has been flushed, not re-loaded

The ETF snapback is happening against a backdrop of aggressively cleaned-up derivatives positioning in XRP-USD:

• Futures Open Interest has dropped from about $2.61B to roughly $2.40B, the lowest since early January 2025.

• One session saw $59M of long liquidations and $11M of shorts erased.

• Subsequent trading showed a far more balanced wash, with around $10M in longs and $10.5M in shorts taken out.

• A separate leg of the selloff triggered about $47M in additional long liquidations as price sliced through $1.60 and then $1.20.

This sequence matters. The initial flush was classic leveraged capitulation: long positioning built during the prior up-leg was forced out in size as price breached key levels, funding reset lower, and open interest bled. The later, more symmetric liquidation profile (longs and shorts both hit around $10M) signals that the structure is now cleaner; there isn’t a single overcrowded side dominating risk.

Options flow backs this up. Demand has shifted toward near-dated puts while front-end implied volatility lifted, showing hedging activity and caution, not manic chasing. For XRP ETF holders in XRPI and XRPR, that’s constructive: the wrapper rebound is sitting on top of a derivatives market that has already de-geared. Moves from here are driven more by fresh capital than by legacy leverage being forced out.

Global crypto ETF flows – Bitcoin wrappers bleed while XRP ETFs pull in fresh risk

Outside XRP, the global crypto ETF landscape is under real pressure:

• In one quarter, net inflows into crypto ETFs were around $83M, roughly 49% lower than the $161M booked in the previous three-month period.

• Total crypto ETF FUM dropped to about $900M, a 17.2% decline as prices corrected.

• Only a single new product – an Australian iShares Bitcoin ETF – launched in that quarter, raising about $6.5M.

• Globally, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in the US sits near $71B in assets, but even there the flow profile has turned choppy, with days of record volume and heavy outflows back-to-back.

On the US side, spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively hold roughly $80–81B in assets and have registered around $54.3B in cumulative net inflows since launch, but the recent tape shows multiple days of net outflows in the $434–$545M range, with a weekly net redemption figure near $690M at one point. The takeaway: there is no broad “ETF mania” lifting all boats anymore; products are now competing hard for capital.

In that context, three consecutive days of positive net flows into XRP wrappers, cumulative inflows above $1.2B, and AUM around $888M are not trivial. XRP ETF flows are holding up while a big part of the rest of the crypto ETF universe – especially Bitcoin – is seeing cash walk out the door.

Macro backdrop – AI equity unwind, bond PTSD and why yield-style crypto is getting attention

The XRP move is happening inside a broader capital rotation. In equities, high-multiple AI names have started to correct, with some large tech stocks down roughly 15–20% from their 2025 highs, while dividend ETFs like SCHD ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHD) are pressing record territory near $31.39 with around $80B in AUM and a yield north of 3.4–3.5%. Capital is clearly shifting from hyper-growth into cash-flow and defense.

At the same time, the bond market is still dealing with the aftermath of the 2022 drawdown. Broad bond funds yielding around 3.8–3.9% are barely offering positive real returns against inflation that has run above pre-pandemic trends. That combination – growth scare in AI and “PTSD” in bonds – is exactly why yield-sensitive capital is hunting for alternatives.

In crypto, ETFs and ETPs are the cleanest way for that capital to enter the ecosystem. XRP’s ETF inflow profile, together with a reset in derivatives and a clear technical map, gives it a narrative that rhymes with what’s happening in dividend-equity land: less focus on story, more on structured exposure with defined risk.

Technical map for XRP-USD – key levels that drive XRPI and XRPR pricing

The spot chart is still the engine for XRPI, XRPR and XRP ETF Bitwise, so the levels matter:

• Moving averages: price below the 50-day EMA (~$1.88), 100-day EMA (~$2.05) and 200-day EMA (~$2.22) with all slopes negative. That keeps the long-term trend down.

• Volatility bands: Bollinger mid-band near $1.93, upper around $2.17, lower roughly $1.70; Keltner upper channel near $2.22 with lower around $1.73.

• Momentum: RSI has been sitting around 29 on the daily (oversold) but has started to hook higher; ADX in the mid-30s shows trend strength, while CCI readings north of +300 on rebounds flag stretched intraday moves.

Critical horizontal levels:

• $1.00 – strong structural support and psychological line in the sand.

• $1.09–$1.20 – washout lower band already probed; losing this again on size would open a deeper leg.

• $1.30 – immediate demand zone; holding this on daily closes is the first requirement for any sustained recovery.

• $1.45–$1.50 – near-term supply from prior breakdown; reclaiming and holding above this band flips short-term bias to constructive.

• $1.93–$2.00 – intersection of the Bollinger mid-band and a round psychological level; clearing this range would put the prior swing highs back on the radar.

If XRP-USD grinds sideways above $1.30, compresses volatility and then pushes through $1.50 with rising volume, both XRPI and XRPR will have room to extend beyond today’s spike without instantly looking parabolic. If spot fails and trades back toward $1.00, the ETFs will reprice lower just as quickly as they rallied.

Positioning XRPI and XRPR – liquidity, downside and upside profile across the XRP ETF stack

From a structural perspective, XRPI, XRPR and XRP ETF Bitwise occupy different points on the risk curve:

• XRPI (XRP ETF, NASDAQ) – around $8.65, with 569.9K average daily volume and a $6.50–$23.53 1-year range. This is the most “institutional-style” XRP wrapper in this set: better depth, tighter spreads, and the cleanest way to express XRP exposure in a US brokerage account. Drawdown from the high to the recent low is extreme, but so is the potential upside if XRP-USD re-tests the $2–$3 area.

• XRPR (REX Osprey XRP ETF, BATS) – around $12.22, with only 12.41K average volume and a $9.50–$25.99 yearly band. Positioning here means accepting additional liquidity risk. A 25.72% move in a day on modest turnover illustrates how quickly price can overshoot in both directions.

• XRP ETF Bitwise – while the price quote isn’t in your data dump, the volume and flow numbers are: roughly $40.6M of one-day volume inside a $79.2M complex, contributing to cumulative inflows over $1.2B and net AUM around $888M. This wrapper is the workhorse inside the XRP ETF family; its flows are the best gauge of how large pools of capital feel about XRP-USD over weeks and months, not just intraday.

Drawdown risk is obvious: for XRPI, the distance from $8.65 back to the year low at $6.50 is about 25%; for XRPR, a slide from $12.22 to $9.50 is roughly 22%. Upside back to the 52-week highs is multiples of that. This is not a yield instrument; it is a high-volatility proxy for XRP-USD with an ETF wrapper.

XRP complex verdict – XRPI, XRPR and XRP-USD: Buy, Hold or Sell?

Put the pieces together:

• Spot XRP-USD has already absorbed a 15%+ single-day slide, a test of the low $1.10–$1.20 band, and a flush of roughly $47–59M in long liquidations.

• Futures Open Interest has reset from about $2.61B to $2.40B, clearing a large chunk of crowded positioning.

• ETF flows into XRP ETF Bitwise and peers show three straight sessions of positive net inflows ($19.5M, $4.8M, $1.28M) and cumulative inflows above $1.2B, even while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs logged net outflows in the $70–$250M band per day.

• XRPI at $8.65 and XRPR at $12.22 are still pressed near the bottom of their $6.50–$23.53 and $9.50–$25.99 yearly corridors, despite one massive green day.

• The macro backdrop is risk-off in AI growth equities and cautious in bonds, which supports the idea that differentiated crypto exposure via ETFs can attract incremental capital on every deep pullback.

On that profile, the XRP ETF complex is not in “Sell” territory. You have already had the panic phase: breakdown under $1.60, forced liquidations, options turning defensive, ETF space as a whole losing momentum. What you have now is the first aggressive snapback off oversold levels, with flows and positioning that actually justify the move.

The risk is clear: lose $1.30 on XRP-USD and then $1.20–$1.09, and the path toward $1.00 opens with another 20–30% drawdown in XRPI/XRPR entirely possible. But if XRP-USD stabilises above $1.30, reclaims $1.45–$1.50, and starts grinding toward the $1.93–$2.00 band, the current pricing in XRPI and XRPR will look cheap in hindsight.

Net call, based strictly on the numbers on the tape:

• XRP-USD – speculative Buy, with risk defined against the $1.09–$1.00 zone and upside into the $2.00 band.

• XRPI (XRP ETF, NASDAQ) – speculative Buy for high-risk capital, using the $6.50–$7.00 corridor as the line where the thesis is wrong.

• XRPR (REX Osprey XRP ETF) – Hold / tactical Buy only, because of thin liquidity; use it as a high-beta satellite, not the core exposure.

The move today is not a reason to chase blindly, but the combination of washed-out leverage, persistent ETF inflows and pricing near the bottom of the yearly range puts the XRP ETF stack firmly on the bullish side of the ledger for capital that is prepared to tolerate volatility and size positions accordingly.

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