Solana price forecast – SOL-USD: rebound from $67 to $86 now tests $70–$60 support

Solana (SOL-USD) – panic flush below $70, fragile bounce around $80–$90 and what the market is really pricing in

Solana (SOL-USD) price action: from $127 to sub-$70 in four weeks

Solana (SOL-USD) has shifted from a leadership position to a stress point in the market within weeks. From a mid-January zone around $127, SOL has dropped more than 43%, with over 23% of that slide coming in the current week. The break of the $100 psychological area triggered acceleration, pushing Solana below $70 for the first time since 2023 and printing lows near $67–$68. That flush, combined with a wide intraday band around $70–$84, signals a disorderly risk-off phase rather than a controlled pullback. Over the last seven days, Solana (SOL-USD) traded roughly between $75.76 and $118.42, and the latest quotes sit around $83–$87, with prints such as $86.73–$86.81 and a market cap near $49 billion on about $11.9 billion in 24-hour volume. This move is happening against a macro backdrop where Bitcoin (BTC-USD) dropped to $60,000 before bouncing toward $67,000–$69,000 and Ethereum (ETH-USD) trades near $2,000–$2,050, while the broader crypto market cap slid about 3% to roughly $2.29 trillion.

Derivatives and liquidations on Solana (SOL-USD): over $300 million in longs wiped out and open interest cut nearly in half

Derivatives positioning on Solana (SOL-USD) confirms that this was a leverage washout. More than $300 million in SOL long positions were liquidated in just 24 hours, including a single liquidation of $6.69 million around $73. That scale of forced selling usually appears in late-stage capitulation phases, and the tape shows it clearly through wide spreads, thin liquidity, and violent wicks around $70 and $80. Open interest in SOL futures has dropped from around $9 billion in mid-January to about $5 billion now, a roughly 44% contraction, taking OI back to mid-April 2025 levels. That is a structural reset of positioning rather than a minor adjustment. The long/short ratio near 0.96 shows more short exposure than long, indicating the marginal trade is still tilted to the downside. Funding on SOL perpetuals has flipped negative, with readings around –0.035%, which means shorts are paying longs and the market is still leaning bearish rather than neutral. On the daily chart, the RSI is parked around 19, reflecting extreme oversold conditions, while MACD flipped bearish on January 19 and remains below the zero line with growing red histogram bars. Leverage is reduced, momentum is negative, and the derivatives complex is signalling that the market has cleared a lot of excess but has not yet committed to a sustained reversal in SOL-USD.

On-chain structure for Solana (SOL-USD): speculative wallets buying the dip while long-term capital exits

On-chain data around Solana (SOL-USD) points to a classic split between fast money and patient capital. The cohort holding SOL for one day to one week has increased its share of circulating supply from 4.49% to 6.08% between February 4 and February 6. That is a sharp two-day jump and shows short-term wallets stepping in aggressively during the rebound from $67–$70 into the $80 zone. This group historically buys into bounces and sells quickly if price rolls over again, so their activity is not a strong base for a multi-month uptrend. At the end of January, they controlled around 5.26% of the supply and then dropped back to 4.38% by January 31 as SOL fell from about $127 to $105, a roughly 17% decline as these same speculative addresses were forced out. At the same time, long-term holders are not adding; they are reducing risk. Hodler net position change, tracking wallets holding for more than 155 days, fell from roughly 2.87 million SOL on February 3 to about 2.37 million SOL by February 5, an approximate 17% reduction in two days. That means long-duration capital is still distributing into weakness while short-term wallets try to catch the move. Durable bottoms in Solana (SOL-USD) usually appear when long-term holders accumulate and short-term players capitulate; right now the pattern is inverted, which weakens the quality of the bounce.

Solana (SOL-USD) ecosystem treasuries: 40–65% drawdowns and reflexive selling risk

The 40% drop in Solana (SOL-USD) over the last month is already hitting ecosystem treasuries that are heavily concentrated in SOL. Forward Industries is down around 64%, and “Solana Company” is down roughly 65%. DeFi Dev Corp has fallen about 42%, Sharps Tech has dropped approximately 68%, and Upxi is off by close to 47%. As of February 5, Forward Industries remains the largest Solana-treasury holder by size, but every major treasury-linked entity in the Solana stack is under pressure. This matters because it adds a reflexive channel to price action. If treasuries with heavy SOL allocations are forced to sell to extend runway, de-risk, or rebalance, that selling lands in a market already dealing with thin liquidity and liquidation hangovers. That is exactly how Solana (SOL-USD) can overshoot to levels like $60 or even $50 without any catastrophic protocol-specific event: structural selling on top of already depressed sentiment.

ETF flows and spot demand for Solana (SOL-USD): small but arriving at maximum fear

Despite the washout, there is a constructive detail on the demand side for Solana (SOL-USD). Solana-linked spot ETF products saw about $2.82 million of net inflows on February 5, with flows concentrated into vehicles such as Fidelity’s FSOL and Bitwise’s BSOL. In absolute terms, that is not a large number compared with daily turnover in SOL, but timing matters. These flows are appearing after a 40% monthly drawdown and a 30% weekly slide, not at all-time highs. That indicates some regulated, longer-horizon capital is willing to increase Solana exposure when the tape is stressed, not only when momentum is euphoric. In a market where open interest has fallen from $9 billion to $5 billion and derivative participation is shrinking, even modest positive ETF flows can tilt the marginal balance of supply and demand if structural selling subsides. For now, these flows are a positive, but they are not yet strong enough to override liquidations, treasury stress, and long-term holder distribution on SOL-USD.

Technical map for Solana (SOL-USD): key levels from $50 to $121

The technical structure for Solana (SOL-USD) is clean and aligns with both derivatives and on-chain signals. Until February 4, SOL was trading inside a descending channel; once price broke the lower trendline, the sell-off accelerated into the $67–$68 area, completing a nearly 30% drop from recent highs and confirming a breakdown rather than a range. That move also cemented the loss of $100 as a major psychological and technical level. On the downside, the $80 band is the first short-term line; price slipping below it coincided with a surge in selling, and regaining and holding above it is the first sign that the immediate bleeding is slowing. The $70–$70.61 zone represents an initial must-hold shelf where recent intraday lows clustered. The $67–$68 region is the current cycle low and marks the boundary between a deep correction and a full trend break. If that floor fails, the next major objective sits around $60, a key psychological level and a measured-move target identified by current models. Below $60, extension levels around $59 and even the $50 area come into play, signalling a deeper corrective phase. On the upside, the $85–$89.30 region is the first serious resistance shelf where rebounds have repeatedly stalled; a clean break through that band with real volume is the first step in any credible rebuild. The $92–$93 zone, with recent highs such as $92.81, is the “prove it” area: reclaiming it shifts the tape from a pure bounce to a potential base. The $100 round number is the key pivot; as long as Solana (SOL-USD) remains below $100, every rally is suspect. Above $100, $105 becomes the next supply zone, followed by the $118–$121 range at the top of the recent seven-day structure. Regaining $118–$121 would mean the entire drop from mid-January has effectively been neutralized.

Sentiment regime around Solana (SOL-USD): Crypto Fear & Greed at 5 and FTX-level panic without a protocol collapse

Sentiment is at an extreme. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is sitting at 5, the lowest reading since the FTX collapse, showing outright panic, defensive positioning and a bias to overreact to every headline. Market-wide liquidations reinforce the scale of the stress: Bitcoin has absorbed around $1.23 billion in liquidations, major altcoins like ETH, ADA, DOGE and XRP are trading below key supports, and total crypto market capitalization has dipped toward $2.29 trillion with a daily loss of about 3.21%. For Solana (SOL-USD) this backdrop sets up asymmetric outcomes. The negative side is obvious: extreme fear plus lingering treasury risk and continued long-term holder distribution can still break supports like $70 and $67 and force a test of $60 or even the $50 region if another external shock hits. The positive side is that much of the bad news is already reflected in positioning and sentiment. When the index is at 5 rather than 50, the next large move is often driven by marginal changes in flows rather than fresh fear. Once forced sellers and panicked late longs are flushed, very little new marginal supply remains at those depressed levels, and a modest amount of real money demand can produce an outsized reaction in SOL-USD.

Medium-term scenarios for Solana (SOL-USD): bull, repair, and bearish extension paths

Over the next several weeks and months, Solana (SOL-USD) has three dominant paths. In the bullish path, SOL defends the $70–$80 support area on any retest, builds higher lows above $80, then reclaims $92–$93 and flips $100 from resistance into support. That scenario would require derivatives metrics to normalize, with funding moving back toward neutral, open interest rebuilding without a heavy short skew, and ETF plus spot flows continuing to trend positive. On-chain, the signal would be long-term holders turning net buyers again while the short-term cohort shrinks as speculative addresses distribute to stronger hands. If this pattern emerges, a move back toward $150–$200 in 2026 stops being a narrative and becomes a realistic medium-term target zone. In the repair or range-bound path, SOL-USD oscillates between the mid-$70s and low-$90s for four to eight weeks. Volatility remains high, intraday wicks are violent, and macro factors such as Bitcoin direction and equities risk sentiment dominate. During this phase, leverage stays relatively low, long-term holders stabilize, and patient capital can accumulate, but trend traders remain cautious. In the bearish extension path, SOL loses the low-$70s convincingly, breaks the $67–$68 cycle low on strong volume, and drives toward $60. If $60 fails, targets around $59 and lower supports become relevant, and the market shifts firmly into a “sell rallies” regime. Short-term buyers that loaded between $75 and $85 are forced out, long-term holders continue to distribute, treasuries potentially sell more, and any bounce that does not reclaim $80–$90 quickly is treated as an exit opportunity rather than a foundation.

Solana (SOL-USD) price forecast verdict: high-volatility Buy with $60–$67 as the critical line

On balance, the numbers point to Solana (SOL-USD) trading as a high-volatility opportunity rather than a finished story. The asset is down over 43% from $127 to sub-$70 within weeks, has absorbed more than $300 million in liquidations in a single day, has seen futures open interest collapse from about $9 billion to $5 billion, is trading in a sentiment regime where the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reads 5, and is sitting near $80–$90 with a clear downside band defined by $67–$60. At the same time, modest positive ETF flows of roughly $2.82 million have started to appear, speculative wallets are stepping in, and the protocol itself has not suffered a structural failure comparable to FTX-style events. In that context, current levels argue for a speculative Buy stance on Solana (SOL-USD) with strict respect for the technical line in the sand. The key condition is simple: as long as SOL holds the $67–$70 zone on retests and does not print a decisive weekly close below $60, the risk/reward skews toward accumulating into weakness with an eye on reclaiming $92, $100 and then $105–$121 over time. A clean break and sustained move under $60 invalidates that view and shifts Solana (SOL-USD) into a deep corrective regime where capital should be preserved and exposure recalibrated.

That's TradingNEWS