EUR/USD Price Forecast: 1.18 Support in Focus as NFP and CPI Loom

EUR/USD – dollar pullback, 1.18 support and a crowded macro week ahead

Macro backdrop keeps EUR/USD pinned above 1.1800 for now

EUR/USD trades just over 1.1800 after a 2.6% slide from the late-January high near 1.2090. The pair is caught between a softer U.S. dollar and an unimpressive European Central Bank that has now left policy unchanged for five straight meetings. The dollar side weakened as the U.S. Dollar Index rolled off weekly highs after Michigan Consumer Sentiment rose from 56.4 to 57.3 in February, beating the 55 consensus but not strong enough to extend the latest USD squeeze. At the same time, EUR buyers lean on a solid December export print from Germany, where shipments rose 4% month-on-month versus a 1% forecast, a clear positive surprise for the euro side. With EUR/USD still inside an uptrend that started from the 1.1590 area and the dollar failing to hold gains above the 97.50 DXY region, the pair is trying to stabilize rather than capitulate lower.

US data and USD sentiment: strong numbers, but the bid is fading

The recent dollar upswing was driven by better U.S. data and haven flows, but the tone has cooled. DXY is backing away from weekly highs and now risks a pullback toward 97.50 and then 97.10–97.25 if profit-taking deepens. Michigan sentiment at 57.3 shows the U.S. consumer is not collapsing, yet markets are already debating when the Federal Reserve can ease again, which caps the upside for the USD. The next impulses will come from Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI in the second week of February, where a hot print can re-ignite dollar demand and a soft one can push DXY back toward its recent lows. For EUR/USD that means a tactical range: stronger U.S. data keeps pressure below 1.1919, while any disappointment on jobs or inflation can drive another test of 1.20 and above.

Euro-side fundamentals: German exports cushion EUR, ECB refuses to lead

On the European side, the most tangible positive is the German export beat. A 4% monthly export gain versus 1% expected is a big gap and helps explain why EUR/USD could reclaim and hold 1.1800 despite a firm dollar earlier in the week. It signals external demand for eurozone goods remains more resilient than feared, limiting downside risk for the currency. By contrast, the ECB continues to do almost nothing: five consecutive meetings without a policy change and a communication stance that avoids clear guidance. That passivity leaves EUR trading more off U.S. data and global risk sentiment than off Frankfurt decisions. Still, the absence of new easing and the perception that the rate-cut cycle will be slow prevent EUR bears from pressing for a sustained break below 1.17 unless U.S. data turns decisively in favor of the USD.

Short-term technical map for EUR/USD: 1.1746/71 support versus 1.1919–1.2042 resistance

Technically, EUR/USD sits right above a cluster of support that matters on daily and intraday charts. The 1.1746/71 band combines the objective yearly open with the 61.8% retracement of the January rally, creating a strong reference zone. This same region caught today’s rebound after the 2.6% pullback from the 1.2090 area, underlining its importance. Below that, the January low-day close at 1.1645, the 200-day moving average around 1.1618, and the December low at 1.1590 define the next ladder of supports where downside exhaustion can appear if fear returns to the euro. On the topside, the first real resistance sits at 1.1866/75, which includes the 2025 high close and monthly high. Above that, 1.1919 marks the 2025 high itself and is the level that has to give way to confirm that the uptrend is resuming. If EUR/USD can close through 1.1919, the door opens for another run at 1.2020/42, where the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2008 decline and the January high-day close converge. Those levels together define the tactical battlefield for the next leg.

Intraday structure: ascending channel keeps EUR/USD bulls in control while 1.1746 holds

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD still trades within an ascending pitchfork drawn from the January low, despite the recent setback. The lower parallel runs almost exactly through 1.1746/71, reinforcing that band as the line the bulls must defend. Each dip toward that channel support has so far attracted buying interest, and the latest rebound from just above 1.1750 fits that pattern. As long as price holds inside this rising structure, sellers have to accept that they are trading against the trend, not with it. A decisive break and daily close below the yearly open would change that equation and shift focus toward 1.1645 and 1.1590. Until that happens, the path of least resistance remains sideways-to-higher, with intraday rallies toward 1.1866/75 and potentially 1.1919 the base case when risk sentiment is neutral to positive.

Cross-asset and risk mood: EUR/USD lifts as safe-haven demand for USD fades

Broader risk appetite is tilting against the USD, and that spills into EUR/USD. Equities have stabilized after recent volatility, and haven bids into the dollar are unwinding as investors rotate back into risk assets. Commodity-linked currencies like CAD are firming as precious metals and other commodities rebound, which helped push USD/CAD down once spot slipped below its 50-day moving average near 1.3620 and drifted toward 1.3575–1.3590. In Asia, USD/JPY is stalling around 157.00 even after household spending in Japan dropped 2.9% month-on-month versus a 1.3% expected decline, showing that even weak domestic data is not enough to break that cross higher without fresh U.S. momentum. When the dollar fails to extend gains against GBP, CAD, and JPY, it is hard for EUR/USD to break lower for long. That alignment of crosses supports the idea that dips into 1.17s still find demand, at least until the next major U.S. data shock.

Upcoming event risk: NFP, CPI and the fog around the USD rate path

The immediate future for EUR/USD is dictated by U.S. macro prints rather than by anything from Frankfurt. The next week brings Non-Farm Payrolls followed by CPI, and both releases land at a time when the market does not fully trust either a strong or weak USD narrative. A robust jobs report and sticky inflation would push the rate-cut timeline further out, revive DXY and threaten 1.1746/71, with a break exposing 1.1645 and 1.1590. Conversely, a softer payrolls print or a CPI miss on the downside would reinforce the notion that the Fed is done tightening and can cut later this year, undermining the dollar and helping EUR/USD retest 1.1866/75 and then 1.1919. The key point is that the dollar already failed to extend gains after a sentiment beat and now trades on the back foot. That keeps the burden of proof on USD bulls going into these releases, which is usually a constructive setup for the euro.

Trading stance on EUR/USD – why the setup still argues for a Buy bias

Pulling everything together, the picture for EUR/USD is still skewed to the upside while 1.1746/71 holds. The pair has corrected 2.6% from 1.2090 yet remains inside a rising structure that began near 1.1590, with buyers consistently defending the yearly open zone. Macro data are no longer one-sided for the USD: Michigan sentiment at 57.3 helps but does not transform the outlook, and the dollar index is already backing away from resistance with potential to slide toward 97.10–97.25. On the euro side, Germany’s 4% export jump against a 1% forecast gives the single currency a concrete fundamental anchor, offsetting the ECB’s lack of fresh policy catalysts. Cross-asset flows show a dollar that struggles to make progress against majors when risk appetite is even modestly positive. From a risk-reward perspective, that combination justifies a bullish stance on the pair, with a clear invalidation level. The call here is Buy EUR/USD with the view that dips toward 1.1750 are opportunities, targeting a re-test of 1.1866/75 first, then 1.1919 and, if NFP and CPI break in favor of a weaker USD, an extension toward 1.2020/42. Only a daily close below 1.1746 would downgrade the view to Hold and force a reassessment toward the 1.1645–1.1590 support zone.

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