EUR/USD Price Forecast - Eur Bulls Target 1.18 as Weak Dollar Meets NFP and PMI Risk

EUR/USD: Bulls Circling 1.1800 as Fed Cuts, Weak USD and Soft NFP Bets Drive the Pair

EUR/USD price action and intraday structure

EUR/USD is holding firm above 1.1700 and trading close to 1.1760–1.1780, after printing a two-month high around 1.1768. Every push toward the 1.1770–1.1800 band is meeting profit-taking rather than aggressive selling, which shows controlled two-way trade, not a reversal. The pair is riding a minor short-term bullish trend line and staying comfortably above recent congestion, with dips toward 1.1730–1.1710 being bought rather than sold.

Technical picture: overbought momentum, but uptrend intact above 1.17

On the 4-hour view, EUR/USD is trading above the 20-period moving average near 1.1735, which acts as first dynamic support. A deeper intraday floor sits around 1.1685, where price previously consolidated and where the 50-period moving average is clustered. On the daily time frame, the rally has pushed RSI toward the 70 zone, confirming overbought conditions after several strong sessions, but without clear bearish divergence. Support layers line up at 1.1710, then 1.1660, with a more important structural floor around 1.1580. On the topside, resistance is concentrated near 1.1770–1.1790, followed by 1.1830 and 1.1900. The structure is classic: overbought momentum inside a still-bullish trend, where a pullback into 1.1710–1.1685 would be a normal reset, not a trend break, as long as 1.1660–1.1580 holds.

ECB and euro-side fundamentals: stable policy quietly supports EUR

On the euro side, the policy backdrop is simple and supportive for EUR/USD. Markets broadly expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged through 2026, with no imminent easing cycle and no new tightening campaign on the table. That “steady but not aggressive” stance reduces volatility for the euro and prevents the kind of dovish surprise that would crush EUR. Eurozone PMIs are expected to show services activity around 53.3 and manufacturing near 49.9, a mix that points to modest expansion rather than recession. This profile is not strong enough to generate a massive euro re-rating on its own, but it is more than enough to justify a stable ECB while the Fed is already cutting.

Fed, USD and rates: three cuts to 3.50%–3.75% keep the dollar under pressure

The heavy lifting for the move in EUR/USD is happening on the dollar side. The Federal Reserve has already delivered three rate cuts in 2025, taking the funds range down to 3.50%–3.75%. Powell has acknowledged clear cooling in the labour market and signalled that policy is now in a “wait and assess” mode. Initial jobless claims are at their highest level in nearly five years, private payrolls have surprised to the downside, and services activity is only modestly positive. Inflation is easing rather than accelerating, with expectations for CPI near 3.1% year-on-year versus 3.0% previously. This combination of lower rates, softer jobs and contained inflation has pushed the Dollar Index down toward 98.25 and left USD on the defensive. That backdrop makes it much easier for EUR/USD to hold above 1.1700 and lean into the 1.1760–1.1800 band.

US labour data and EUR/USD: 40k–50k jobs and 4.4% unemployment as the pivot

The delayed US labour report for October and November is the immediate catalyst for the next leg in EUR/USD. Consensus looks for roughly 40k–50k new jobs in November and an unemployment rate around 4.4%, with markets watching wage growth after a 3.8% year-on-year print in September. A softer-than-expected NFP number or an unemployment rate pushing above 4.4% would harden expectations for more Fed cuts in 2026 and likely push EUR/USD through 1.1800, opening room toward 1.1830 and potentially the 1.1900 area. A strong upside surprise in jobs or wages would do the opposite: rate-cut bets would be pared back, yields would bounce, USD would catch a bid, and the pair could slide back toward 1.1710–1.1685, with risk of a temporary break below 1.17 if positioning is crowded.

Eurozone PMIs: decent but not decisive for EUR/USD direction

Eurozone PMI releases are the main European data input and act as a secondary driver for EUR/USD compared with US labour numbers. Services PMI projected near 53.3 signals ongoing expansion, while manufacturing near 49.9 shows an economy hovering at the edge of growth. Stronger-than-expected PMIs would support the idea that no further ECB cuts are needed and would underpin EUR on dips, helping EUR/USD stay above 1.17. Weaker PMIs would not immediately force the ECB into cuts but would remove one of the bullish arguments for the euro. In that weaker scenario, the pair becomes even more reliant on Fed dovishness and dollar softness, and any overbought technical condition has more room to correct toward 1.1660–1.1580 before buyers return.

Positioning and risk zones: crowded longs under 1.18, defined downside levels

Positioning in EUR/USD is skewed long after the quick ascent from the low-1.16 area to 1.1768. Medium-term bulls who built positions around 1.15–1.16 are comfortably in profit and can sit through volatility, but late buyers above 1.1750 are vulnerable if data breaks against them. The overbought daily RSI near 70 highlights this crowding risk. A clean, impulsive break below 1.1710, and especially a daily close under 1.1685, would signal a deeper flush toward 1.1660 and potentially 1.1580 as stretched longs are forced out. Conversely, if NFP and PMIs line up in favour of a weaker USD and a stable EUR, shorts above 1.1760–1.1770 could be squeezed rapidly through 1.1800 into the 1.1830–1.1900 band.

Trade zones and preferred strategy on EUR/USD

From a pure level perspective, the key downside zones in EUR/USD sit at 1.1710–1.1735 for first demand, 1.1685 as a deeper short-term floor, 1.1660 as the start of genuine corrective territory, and 1.1580 as the structural line that defines the current bullish leg. On the upside, 1.1770–1.1790 is the first ceiling, followed by 1.1830 and then 1.1900 as an extension target if both Eurozone and US data favour the euro. In risk-reward terms, the cleaner structure is to accumulate on controlled dips toward 1.1685–1.1640 with upside into 1.1850–1.1900 and a protective line under 1.1580, rather than chase fresh longs directly into the 1.18 wall with RSI already stretched.

Verdict on EUR/USD: bullish bias, buy-the-dip rather than chase-the-break

Overall, with the Fed already cutting to 3.50%–3.75%, US jobs growth expected in the 40k–50k range with 4.4% unemployment, Eurozone PMIs holding around 53.3 for services and 49.9 for manufacturing, the Dollar Index hovering near 98.25 and EUR/USD pressing a two-month high around 1.1768, the strategic picture is clear. The medium-term stance on EUR/USD is bullish as long as the pair holds above roughly 1.1660–1.1580, with a natural path toward 1.1830 and potentially 1.1900 once current overbought conditions ease. Tactically, this remains a buy-the-dip, not chase-the-break setup: corrections into the 1.17 handle are more attractive entries than new longs into resistance at 1.18, and a daily close below 1.1580 would be the point where the view shifts from Buy to, at best, Hold.

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