EUR/USD Price Forecast - EUR Stalls Around 1.18 as Fed Yield Edge and Iran Tensions Cap Euro Rallies

EUR/USD – Dollar yield edge keeps the pair pinned near the lower end of its range

EUR/USD – Current trading zone around 1.18 and what the tape is really saying

EUR/USD is oscillating around 1.1790–1.1850 after several sessions of pressure, with short-term moves respecting a tight band on either side of the 1.1800 handle. During Asian hours the pair hovered close to 1.1790 after three consecutive down days, while the 14-day RSI sits near 47, a level that signals fading downside momentum but not a convincing bullish impulse. Price action intraday remains heavy: every push into roughly 1.1860–1.1870 is sold, while dips toward 1.1820–1.1830 attract only shallow buying before selling resumes. Structurally the pair is still trading inside a broader 1.1765–1.2000 box, but firmly in the lower half of that range where sellers have the advantage whenever the market tests resistance

EUR/USD – Moving averages draw the battle lines between 1.1774 and 1.1833

On the daily chart, the 50-day EMA is rising and currently runs near 1.1774, with spot trading just above that medium-term gauge. That keeps a residual bullish bias alive, but only marginally. The nine-day EMA has flattened out around 1.1833 after a previous upswing and now acts as a short-term cap on rebounds. As long as EUR/USD stays trapped between the rising 50-day EMA near 1.1774 and the sideways nine-day EMA around 1.1833, the market is in a compression phase: the longer-term trend tool is still pointing higher, but the shorter average has stopped confirming that move. A decisive daily close above 1.1833 would re-energize the bullish camp and open room toward 1.2000 and even 1.2082, while a sustained break back below 1.1774 would tilt the balance clearly bearish and expose the January low at 1.1578

EUR/USD – Fed minutes, cuts pricing and why the US Dollar still enjoys the yield premium

The macro backdrop still favours the USD side of EUR/USD. Futures are discounting roughly 62 bp of Federal Reserve easing for 2026, equivalent to two 25 bp cuts plus around a 50% probability of a third move later in the year. The first step is pencilled in around June. That is a much shallower path than markets were hoping for a few months ago. Recent softer inflation releases briefly encouraged doves, but the latest labour data – the strongest employment growth in more than a year combined with a drop in the unemployment rate – reinforced the idea that the US economy can tolerate restrictive policy for longer. Fed minutes have leaned hawkish enough to remind markets that cuts will be gradual, not aggressive. That configuration keeps US real yields elevated and limits the downside for the dollar into the next PCE core inflation numbers. With the dollar index trading near 97.8–97.9, up around 0.19% on the day and holding above a cluster of Fibonacci supports around the mid-96s, the greenback remains well supported rather than vulnerable

EUR/USD – Euro side weighed down by weak sentiment and lack of catalysts

On the euro side, the story is weaker. German and wider euro area ZEW surveys have softened in February, confirming that growth momentum remains fragile. That leaves EUR without a domestic driver strong enough to offset the US yield advantage. There is nothing major on the near-term euro calendar to shift that picture, so the common currency continues to trade as a carry-unfriendly unit backed by sluggish activity and restrictive real rates. The EUR is only marginally stronger versus CHF by around 0.04% and almost flat against USD, while it is notably weaker versus high-beta currencies: down roughly 0.22% against AUD and 0.08% against NZD on the day. That heat map underlines that euro weakness is broad-based, not limited to EUR/USD

EUR/USD – Cross-asset backdrop: gold near $5,000, higher VIX and soft equities

Cross-market signals are consistent with a cautious risk tone that still favors holding some USD. Gold has been oscillating in a broad band roughly between $4,550 and $5,420 per ounce, with recent sessions seeing a grind higher that leaves XAU/USD around the $5,000 mark. Pullbacks toward $4,850–$4,900 have attracted buyers, but spikes above $5,100 have been sold as participants hedge the risk of more hawkish Fed communication. Headlines suggesting the US could be ready to launch military action against Iran as early as the weekend are adding a geopolitical premium to gold and to safe-haven assets, yet this has not translated into a clean USD selloff. US equity indices are modestly softer, with the Dow near 49,584 (-0.16%), the S&P 500 around 6,870.9 (-0.15%) and the Nasdaq close to 22,721 (-0.14%), while the VIX sits above 20 at 20.16, up about 2.75%. That is a risk backdrop in which EUR/USD tends to struggle to break sustainably higher

EUR/USD – Range architecture from 1.1765 floor to 1.2000 ceiling

From a pure chart perspective, EUR/USD remains locked in a wide 1.1765–1.2000 rectangle. The 1.2000 mark is the key psychological ceiling and upper boundary that has rejected previous rallies. Below that, resistance zones stack up: 1.1997 and 1.1927 host prior swing highs, creating a stiff shelf of offers. The 1.1890–1.1900 band is the mid-range pivot; a daily close back above it would neutralise the immediate downside bias but would not by itself turn the market bullish. The 1.1856 area has operated as a tactical pivot in recent sessions, flipping multiple times between support and resistance. On the downside, 1.1835 has emerged as the first line of daily support, with 1.1831–1.1835 acting intraday as a fulcrum: when the pair holds above that pocket, bounces develop, and when it loses that zone, follow-through selling drives price toward 1.1810–1.1800. The structural floor remains 1.1765–1.1766, where the wider range bottom aligns with the four-hour 200-period EMA. That is the level the market has to break to confirm a transition from range to trending downside

EUR/USD – Intraday strategy levels around 1.1805, 1.1828, 1.1856 and the bid near 1.1760

Short-term strategies clustered around EUR/USD highlight a clear tactical map. On the upside, 1.1805, 1.1828 and 1.1856 are the key levels where sellers are waiting for bearish reversal signals on the hourly chart. Typical approaches are to wait for a rejection candle – pin bar, doji, engulfing pattern – at those zones, place stops a pip above the local high and then trail risk once the move is 20 pips in profit, taking partial profits at that first 20-pip objective. On the downside, liquidity pools sit around 1.1766 and 1.1760, where the same intraday systems are prepared to flip and go long if a convincing bullish reversal pattern appears. These levels are not arbitrary: 1.1805 is effectively the immediate resistance above the 1.1800 round figure, 1.1828 aligns with prior intraday supply, and 1.1856 is the already-mentioned tactical pivot. 1.1766–1.1760 sits just ahead of the 1.1765 structural floor. The existence of clear playbooks on both sides – leaning short below 1.1805–1.1856 and long only closer to 1.1760 – reinforces the idea that EUR/USD is currently a sell-rallies market with buyers waiting deep rather than chasing strength near the top of the intraday range

EUR/USD – Daily momentum signals: RSI, EMA structure and trend character

Momentum indicators are sending a mixed but still bearish-leaning message. The 14-day RSI around 47 shows that the selling wave from above 1.19 has cooled enough to avoid a full oversold signal, yet the oscillator remains below the 50 line that would mark positive momentum. The spread between the nine-day EMA (about 1.1833) and the 50-day EMA (roughly 1.1774) has narrowed, reflecting a loss of upside momentum in the short-term trend while the medium-term average still rises. At the same time, another technical take emphasises that EUR/USD is trading below a separate 50-day EMA reference and beneath that moving average’s pressure zone, keeping the corrective bearish trend in control on a short-term horizon and reducing the odds of a sharp near-term recovery. That perspective highlights price sliding alongside a supportive trend line but under the main moving average, a combination that typically signals the risk of a downside extension after only modest bounces. Taken together, the message is that the pair is no longer in a fast down-move, yet the burden of proof has shifted decisively onto the bull camp

EUR/USD – Relative strength against other majors and what it implies for direction

The daily performance table for major currencies underlines the relative position of EUR/USD. Against USD, the euro is fractionally lower on the day, confirming the heavy tone around 1.18. Against JPY, EUR is up around 0.24%, mirroring broad yen weakness as carry trades remain popular. Versus CAD, EUR is roughly flat, while the strongest moves show AUD up about 0.22% and NZD up 0.08% against the euro. At the same time, crosses like EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY are pressing higher: EUR/JPY has already reached around 183.00, with bulls eyeing 183.35 and then 184.05, while CHF/JPY trades near 200.85 with targets toward 201.30. This pattern – euro firm versus low-yielding JPY and CHF but weak versus high-beta, commodity-linked units – is typical of a world where carry and risk trades are alive but the euro is not the preferred vehicle for expressing optimism. For EUR/USD, that means that the pair does not benefit fully when the dollar softens and can fall quickly when the dollar firms

EUR/USD – Interaction with commodities and other macro plays

Commodities are providing additional context. Natural gas is holding above $3.000, with key supports around that level and upside reference points at $3.420 and $3.750 if bullish momentum continues. Gold clings to levels just below or around $5,000 per ounce, with bulls defending pullbacks and bears selling extensions, a pattern that fits an environment of geopolitical tension – including war risk headlines around Iran – colliding with a central bank still intent on keeping real rates positive. When gold holds firm while the dollar index stays elevated near 97.8, it usually means there is significant hedging demand but not an outright rush out of USD. That combination often translates, as it does now, into range-bound or mildly negative EUR/USD rather than a steep trend in either direction

EUR/USD – Scenarios from grind lower to range to low-probability squeeze higher

From here, the structure around EUR/USD points to three main paths, each anchored by concrete levels. The base case is a gradual drift lower toward 1.1765. Under this scenario, every rally into 1.1856–1.1887 continues to attract selling, the euro remains without clear domestic catalysts, and the USD stays supported by solid US data and a controlled, slower-than-hoped easing path from the Fed. A daily close below roughly 1.1830, followed by intraday failures at that level, keeps pressure on 1.1810–1.1800 and ultimately brings the 1.1765 floor back into focus. A second scenario is a noisy range between about 1.1830 and 1.1927. If upcoming Fed minutes and the next PCE release land broadly in line with expectations, the pair can oscillate inside this corridor: demand emerges repeatedly in the 1.1831–1.1835 pocket, but attempts to climb toward 1.1890–1.1927 stall as long as the dollar index holds between roughly 96.8 and 97.9. A third, less probable path is an upside squeeze toward 1.1997 and 1.2082. For that to unfold, the dollar index would need to fail convincingly around the 97.6–97.8 band, roll over toward 96.8 and be accompanied by a clear shift in Fed rhetoric toward more aggressive cuts. Only a daily close above 1.1927 followed by sustained trade above 1.1997 would bring the 1.2082 area and the top of the broader structure back into play

EUR/USD – Bias, stance and what would invalidate it

Putting the microstructure, technical map and macro backdrop together, the balance still favours a cautious bearish stance on EUR/USD. The pair is trading in the lower half of a well-defined 1.1765–1.2000 range, repeatedly failing to establish itself above 1.1856–1.1890, while the Fed’s slower and shallower easing path keeps the dollar’s yield edge intact against a euro zone locked in weak growth and restrictive real rates. As long as spot remains capped below roughly 1.1890–1.1900 and dips continue to probe 1.1830–1.1800, rallies into the 1.1856–1.1887 band offer better risk-reward for selling than for chasing upside. The working bias is bearish with a focus on selling strength, looking for extensions toward 1.1810–1.1800 and, if pressure persists, a test of the 1.1765 floor. This view would be invalidated by a decisive daily close above 1.1927 followed by a break of 1.1997 and the 1.2000 ceiling, especially if that move coincides with the dollar index sliding back below the mid-96s and Fed communication shifting clearly toward a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle

That's TradingNEWS