Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Surges Past $5,2K After U.S.-Israel Strikes on Iran — $5,4K Next

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Surges Past $5,230 After U.S.-Israel Strikes on Iran — $5,450 Next, and the Road to $8,000 Is Widening

Gold (XAU/USD) closed Friday's session at $5,230.56 per troy ounce on spot, up 0.8% on the day. COMEX April futures settled even higher at $5,247.90, a 1.03% gain — then extended to $5,299.00 in after-hours trading as the first reports of coordinated U.S.-Israeli military strikes against Iran rippled through global markets. February delivered an 11% monthly return for bullion — $516.60 per ounce in raw dollar terms — the largest nominal monthly gain in gold's recorded history and the strongest percentage move since January 2012. The all-time high from late January sits at approximately $5,340, just 1.7% above Friday's spot close. With bombs falling on Tehran and missiles hitting U.S. military installations across the Gulf, that record is not going to survive the first hours of Sunday night's Asian reopen.

This is the moment gold was built for. Every structural tailwind that precious metals bulls have cited for the past eighteen months — central bank accumulation, dollar weakness, inflation persistence, geopolitical fracturing — is now converging simultaneously with an active shooting war between the world's largest military power and one of the Middle East's most consequential oil producers. The safe-haven bid is not theoretical anymore. It is being tested in real time, and gold is delivering.

The Iran Strikes — Why Gold Markets Face a Gap Higher on Sunday Night

On Saturday, the United States and Israel launched joint strikes against Iranian targets. Explosions were confirmed in Tehran. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks, striking a U.S. Fifth Fleet service center in Bahrain. Qatar intercepted incoming projectiles. Most critically, explosions were reported near Kharg Island — the facility through which the vast majority of Iranian crude exports flow. The scope of the retaliation, including confirmed hits on four U.S. military bases, signals that this is not a contained, single-round exchange.

Gold trading is paused for the weekend. COMEX futures on CME Group's Globex platform reopen Sunday evening U.S. time, a few hours before Asian cash markets kick into gear Monday morning. Every position taken before Friday's close is sitting there, exposed, while the geopolitical landscape transforms. The first price discovery on Sunday will almost certainly gap higher — the only question is by how much.

Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, placed gold's near-term target at $5,450, with support around $5,120. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has already dropped to a three-month low at 3.961%, and traders are assigning approximately 42% probability to a Fed rate cut in June. Lower real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding a zero-yielding asset like bullion, and that dynamic was already lifting gold before a single bomb was dropped. Now add a full-scale military confrontation, and the demand picture intensifies dramatically.

February's Historic Rally — $516 Per Ounce in 28 Days

The numbers from February deserve emphasis because they are genuinely extraordinary. An 11% monthly gain. $516.60 added per ounce. The biggest monthly dollar gain in gold's entire trading history. The price moved from roughly $4,714 at the start of the month to $5,230 by Friday's close — a vertical advance that reflects not just speculative enthusiasm but genuine institutional repositioning into hard assets.

The rally was not a straight line. At one point during February, gold dropped $1,200 in just three trading days — a violent shakeout that tested conviction. Critically, the price never closed below its 50-day exponential moving average and never registered a confirmed weekly swing high reversal. Technical analyst AG Thorson of GoldPredict.com noted that this pattern confirms the broader uptrend remains firmly intact. What looked like a crash was, in hindsight, a leveraged flush designed to shake out weak hands before the next leg higher.

Chinese demand provided structural support throughout the month. Net gold imports via Hong Kong jumped 68.7% in January, according to Chinese customs figures — a massive increase that reflects both retail and institutional appetite in the world's largest physical gold market. When Chinese buyers are accumulating at this pace, global supply tightens regardless of what Western financial markets are doing.

Goldman Sachs Lifts 2026 Target for XAU/USD — Structural Bull Case Strengthens

Goldman Sachs has revised its multi-year gold outlook higher, lifting the 2026 target as the bank factors in softer U.S. growth expectations, the potential for Fed rate cuts, and scope for renewed gold ETF inflows. The note also highlighted ongoing reserve diversification by central banks and persistent geopolitical risk as durable demand drivers.

The Goldman upgrade matters beyond the specific price target because it influences capital allocation across the institutional ecosystem. When a house view from a major bank improves, it cascades through asset allocators, CTAs (commodity trading advisors), and discretionary macro funds. That collective repositioning tightens physical markets, lifts futures curves, and creates a self-reinforcing demand loop during periods of already-constrained supply.

ING echoed the constructive view, arguing that central bank gold purchasing remains a key backstop for prices. Official institutions are diversifying reserves away from dollar-denominated assets, reducing reliance on U.S. interest rates, and building strategic gold holdings. These forces limit downside during momentum pauses and provide a structural floor that did not exist in prior gold cycles to this degree.

The $8,000 Target — And Why Even $12,000 to $15,000 Is Being Discussed Seriously

GoldPredict.com's AG Thorson and his team have maintained a forecast targeting $8,000 per ounce — a level that seemed outlandish when originally published but now, with gold already past $5,200, sits within a 53% rally from current prices. In a commodity that has already gained 11% in a single month, a 53% advance over the next several months is not as far-fetched as it would have seemed a year ago.

The technical expectation is for new all-time highs in the second quarter of 2026, likely peaking around May. Thorson has drawn comparisons to the 1979 blow-off rally — the last time gold went parabolic against a backdrop of Middle East conflict, energy price shocks, and collapsing confidence in the dollar. If U.S.-Iran tensions escalate further from here — which, as of Saturday evening, appears to be the base case — the $8,000 target may prove conservative. Longer-term projections in the $12,000 to $15,000 range are being discussed as plausible scenarios, not fringe speculation.

The GoldPredict team expects both gold and silver to trend substantially higher into 2030, followed by the risk of a prolonged global economic downturn lasting until approximately 2036. That macro framework positions gold not as a trade but as a strategic allocation through the remainder of the decade.

Silver (XAG/USD) — Supply Strain, the $100 Breakout Level, and a $200 Blow-Off Scenario

Silver has its own catalysts beyond riding gold's coattails. Persistent disruptions in Mexico — the world's largest silver-producing nation — are straining the supply chain and making it harder for exchanges like COMEX to rebuild depleted inventories. The physical tightness is real and structural, not a short-term anomaly.

Technically, silver needs to break and hold above $100 per ounce for more than a week to regain upside momentum and set the stage for fresh highs in Q2. Should gold enter a parabolic advance toward $8,000 or beyond, the gold-silver ratio historically compresses during such moves, and silver could see an explosive run potentially exceeding $200 by May. That would represent a move of roughly 100% from current levels in under three months — aggressive, but not without historical precedent in precious metals blow-off cycles.

Mining Stocks — Agnico Eagle (AEM) Breaks Out, Junior Miners Accelerate

The mining sector is finally catching up to the metal itself. Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) has broken out to new all-time highs, with measured technical targets between $270 and $275. The move reflects the powerful operating leverage that gold miners carry — when the underlying commodity rallies 11% in a month, miners with fixed cost structures see their margins expand exponentially.

Junior mining stocks are posting impressive percentage gains as speculative capital rotates into the sector. The juniors represent the highest-beta exposure to rising gold prices, and in a parabolic advance, they typically outperform the metal itself by a factor of 2x to 5x. The risk, of course, is equally amplified on the downside — but in a geopolitical environment where gold is hitting new records and central banks are net buyers at scale, the risk-reward for quality mining names is tilting heavily bullish.

The Equity Market Backdrop — S&P 500 Vulnerability Supports the Gold Rotation

Gold's rally is not happening in a vacuum. The S&P 500 (SPX) has formed a rounded top pattern over the past six months, and a breakdown below 6,500 would confirm a bearish technical formation. Nvidia (NVDA), the market's most closely-watched momentum stock, reported an earnings beat that the market completely shrugged off — the stock finished down 5.55% on the day. If Nvidia falters further, the knock-on effect across the broader index could be severe.

Thorson warns that "the likelihood of a 10% to 20% pullback into mid-year is increasing" for the S&P 500. A correction of that magnitude in equities would inject short-term volatility into the metals complex as well — leveraged positions get unwound, margin calls hit, and even gold can sell off briefly as desks liquidate winning positions to cover losses elsewhere. However, the medium-term effect of an equity correction is unambiguously positive for gold. Capital fleeing risk assets needs somewhere to go, and with Treasury yields already falling, the destination is bullion.

The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index dropped 4.9% on Friday alone — the worst session for bank stocks since April. Goldman Sachs (GS) fell 7.5%. American Express (AXP) cratered 7.9%. A private credit crisis is building, with potential 15% default rates on loans concentrated in software companies being disrupted by AI. When financial institutions are under this kind of pressure, gold's role as a non-correlated, zero-counterparty-risk asset becomes far more compelling than in stable environments.

The Dollar Decline — Fueling Gold's Advance From Both Sides

The trade-weighted U.S. dollar index has fallen 7.2% year-over-year on the broad measure and 9.3% on major currencies, both hitting new twelve-month lows. UBS forecasts the euro climbing to $1.22 by end of Q1 and sees structural downside risks to the greenback. A weakening dollar supports XAU/USD mechanically — gold is priced in dollars, so a falling dollar makes gold cheaper for non-dollar buyers, expanding the global demand pool.

But the dollar decline also matters psychologically. When the world's reserve currency loses 7% to 9% of its purchasing power in a year, confidence in fiat money erodes. Central banks accelerate reserve diversification. Sovereign wealth funds reallocate toward hard assets. Retail savers in emerging markets, watching their local currencies depreciate against gold, increase physical purchases. The dollar's weakness is not just a tailwind for gold — it is a fundamental driver of the entire secular bull market.

Real Yields, the Fed, and Why Gold Loves a Cutting Cycle

The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.961% on Friday — the lowest since October — despite the Labor Department reporting hotter-than-expected wholesale inflation. Bonds rallied because growth fears are dominating inflation fears, and the market is pricing in Fed rate cuts with increasing conviction. The probability of a June cut sits at approximately 42%, with the March 17-18 FOMC meeting next up on the calendar.

Gold's relationship with real yields is one of the most reliable dynamics in macro markets. When real yields (nominal yields minus inflation expectations) fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold — which pays no interest — decreases. Money flows from bonds into bullion. The current setup, where nominal yields are dropping and inflation is sticky, is creating negative real yields — the single most powerful fundamental backdrop for gold prices. Every basis point of real yield compression adds fuel to the rally.

Physical Gold — Premiums, Liquidity, and the Inconvenient Truths

The flood of retail interest into physical gold has not come without friction. Buyers of gold bars pay premiums above the spot price that vary depending on bar size, mint, and dealer. Those premiums mean spot gold needs to rise further just to break even on a physical purchase. In February, with demand surging and dealer inventories tightening, premiums have widened — which means the effective entry price for physical buyers is higher than the $5,230 headline number.

Storage costs are another drag that does not appear on a simple price chart. Whether using a home safe, bank vault, or third-party depository, ongoing custody fees quietly erode returns over time. Insurance adds another layer of cost. And in a genuine financial crisis — exactly the scenario physical gold holders are positioning for — selling bars quickly at a fair price can prove difficult. Dealers widen their bid-ask spreads, buyers become more cautious, and the theoretical value of your gold does not always translate into cash in hand when you need it most.

These are not reasons to avoid gold. They are reasons to be realistic about position sizing, entry points, and the difference between spot price returns and actual realized returns on a physical holding. For most allocations, gold ETFs or futures offer cleaner exposure with tighter spreads and immediate liquidity. Physical gold makes sense as a tail-risk hedge — the "break glass in case of emergency" allocation — not as a trading vehicle.

Key Technical Levels for XAU/USD — What to Watch on Sunday's Reopen

The near-term technical structure is defined by a handful of levels. The $5,299 after-hours high from Friday puts the $5,300 round number as the immediate hurdle. Above that, $5,340.72 — the level cited by Peter Grant of Zaner Metals — serves as the next resistance, essentially the prior all-time high zone. The Streible target of $5,450 sits above that, representing a roughly 4.2% rally from Friday's spot close.

On the downside, first support sits at $5,200 to $5,230, around Friday's settlement range. Deeper support lies at $5,120. Razan Hilal of FOREX.com flagged drawdown risk if gold fails to hold above $5,200 — and warned that any diplomatic breakthrough that strips away the war premium could produce a sharp snapback. That risk is real but, given Saturday's escalation, appears to be a lower-probability scenario in the immediate term.

The 50-day exponential moving average, which held during February's $1,200 intraday correction, is the structural line in the sand for the medium-term trend. As long as that average holds on a closing basis, the uptrend is intact and dips remain buying opportunities.

The Week Ahead — ISM, Fed Outlook, and the March 6 Jobs Report

Monday, March 2 brings ISM manufacturing data — a read on factory-level activity that will also capture the inflationary impact of tariffs. The Fed's next policy decision is scheduled for March 17-18, and by then, policymakers will have two more inflation prints and the February employment report to inform their stance.

Friday, March 6 delivers the February non-farm payrolls report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Consensus expects 60,000 new jobs with unemployment holding at 4.3%. A weaker print would strengthen rate cut expectations and push real yields lower — both directly bullish for XAU/USD. A stronger number would complicate the picture by delaying rate cut timing, but in a world where bombs are falling on Iran, even a hot jobs number may not be enough to derail gold's safe-haven momentum.

OPEC+ meets Sunday at 1100 GMT. Sources indicate the group could consider a larger-than-planned output increase in direct response to the Iran strikes. If OPEC+ adds supply and caps the oil price spike, that limits the inflationary impulse and gives the Fed more room to cut — which, paradoxically, would be bullish for gold. If they hold steady and oil runs toward $80, inflation expectations rise, real yields get muddled, and gold's path becomes choppier but ultimately still supported by the geopolitical premium.

Portfolio Allocation — How Much Gold Makes Sense Right Now

Standard institutional guidance places gold at 3% to 7% of a diversified portfolio, leaning toward the upper end when inflation risk, geopolitical uncertainty, or growth concerns are elevated. All three conditions are present simultaneously right now. A 7% to 10% allocation is not unreasonable given the current environment — but the key is disciplined execution, not panic buying.

Dollar-cost averaging into core gold exposure removes the stress of trying to time the exact entry. Tactical additions on pullbacks — like the $1,200 shakeout earlier in February — offer better risk-reward than chasing after-hours spikes. Limit orders placed during higher-liquidity sessions reduce slippage. Pre-defined drawdown limits per position prevent emotion from overriding process.

Currency exposure matters significantly. The weakening dollar amplifies returns for anyone holding gold in non-USD terms, but a sudden dollar reversal — say, on de-escalation headlines — can mute gains quickly. Hedged share classes of gold ETFs are available for those who want to isolate the gold price move without taking a simultaneous currency bet.

The Verdict — XAU/USD: Strong Buy, With $5,450 Near-Term and $8,000 in the Crosshairs

Gold (XAU/USD) at $5,230 is a strong buy.

The bull case has never been this comprehensive. Central bank accumulation is running at multi-decade highs, with Chinese imports via Hong Kong up 68.7% in January alone. Goldman Sachs has lifted its 2026 target. ING cites structural supports from official reserve diversification, geopolitical risk, and a friendlier rate path. The dollar is in structural decline — down 7% to 9% year-over-year. Real yields are falling as the 10-year hits 3.96%. The Fed is on a path toward cuts, with 42% probability priced for June. The S&P 500 is showing distribution patterns. Bank stocks just had their worst session since April. A private credit crisis is building. And now, the United States is in active military conflict with Iran, with explosions near the world's most critical oil export infrastructure.

Near-term target: $5,450. That level should be reached within the first week of March if the geopolitical situation remains elevated. The all-time high around $5,340 will likely fall on Sunday night's reopen or early Monday.

Medium-term target: $8,000. The Q2 2026 window — likely peaking in May — is when the parabolic phase could begin. A 1979-style blow-off driven by oil shock, dollar collapse, and geopolitical panic would push gold into territory that seemed impossible twelve months ago. If the Iran conflict widens, $8,000 moves from aspirational to probable.

Long-term view: Analysts projecting $12,000 to $15,000 before the end of the decade are working from a framework that includes prolonged dollar devaluation, persistent central bank buying, and a global economic downturn into the mid-2030s. Those targets require sustained macro dysfunction — which, looking at the current trajectory, is not a stretch.

Silver (XAG/USD): buy above the $100 breakout level. If gold enters a parabolic advance, silver's leverage to the move — combined with genuine physical supply constraints out of Mexico — could produce a doubling to $200 by May. Below $100, the risk-reward is less favorable, but accumulation at these levels for a multi-month hold is defensible.

Agnico Eagle (AEM): buy. The breakout to new highs with measured targets between $270 and $275 reflects a mining sector that is finally pricing in the gold rally's permanence rather than treating it as a short-term spike.

The Sunday night open is going to be violent. Gold will gap. Spreads will widen. The first candle will not represent fair value. Place limit orders, respect liquidity, and avoid chasing the opening spike. The trend is your ally here — the 50-day EMA held through a $1,200 correction and will hold through whatever Monday brings. Buy the dips, hold the core, and let the most powerful precious metals rally in four decades do its work.

That's TradingNEWS