Natural Gas Future Price Forecast: 23% of Global LNG Passes Through That Waterway, EU Storage Sits at Just 30%

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Iran Has Reportedly Closed the Strait of Hormuz — 23% of Global LNG Passes Through That Waterway, EU Storage Sits at Just 30%, Henry Hub Closed at $2.859, and Monday's Open Could Be the Most Volatile in Years

Saturday, February 28, 2026 | TradingNews.com

Natural gas futures are closed for the weekend, but the energy market that reopens Monday morning will bear almost no resemblance to the one that closed Friday afternoon. The United States and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iran on Saturday. Iran retaliated with missile attacks on four Gulf states. And then, the scenario that energy traders have feared for decades materialized: Reuters reports that Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which 23% of the world's liquefied natural gas passes every single day. April Henry Hub futures settled Friday at $2.859 per mmBtu, up 1.06%. Dutch TTF — the European benchmark — closed at €32.43 per megawatt-hour, gaining 1.69%. UK gas finished at 79.79 pence per therm, up 2.66%. Brent crude hit a seven-month high of $72.87. Those were the prices before the strait closed. When trading resumes, every one of those numbers will be higher — potentially dramatically so — because the physical infrastructure that delivers energy from the Middle East to the rest of the world is now sitting inside an active war zone.

The Strait of Hormuz — 23% of Global LNG, 31% of LPG, and a Third of All Seaborne Oil

The Strait of Hormuz is not merely an important shipping lane. It is the single most critical chokepoint in the global energy system. More than 20% of the world's total oil supply passes through it daily — approximately 20 million barrels of crude, condensate, and refined products. But for natural gas, the strait is arguably even more consequential: 23% of global LNG trade and 31% of liquefied petroleum gas and naphtha transit this channel, according to OPIS data. A third of total worldwide oil exports transported by sea passed through the strait in 2025. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Qatar — the four largest Middle Eastern energy exporters — all rely on the Hormuz corridor to reach buyers in Asia and Europe.

Greece's shipping ministry has already instructed all Greek-flagged vessels to avoid the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the strait itself, calling for "maximum vigilance." Greek tanker owners control a significant share of global LNG carrier capacity, and their withdrawal from the region will immediately reduce the number of available vessels for spot LNG cargo delivery. Insurance premiums for any ship still willing to transit the area will spike — war-risk insurance for Hormuz passage was already elevated before Saturday and will reprice aggressively when London's insurance market opens Monday. The practical effect: even if Iran's closure is partial or temporary, the cost of moving LNG from Qatar to Europe or Asia just increased by multiples.

EU Gas Storage at 30.09% — The Lowest for Late February in Recent Memory

Europe enters this crisis with dangerously thin gas reserves. As of February 27, EU gas inventories stood at 343.84 terawatt-hours, just 30.09% of total capacity, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. This is the lowest storage level for this point in the heating season in recent years, and it leaves the continent acutely vulnerable to any disruption in LNG deliveries — precisely the disruption that a Hormuz closure threatens.

The storage situation did not develop overnight. International LNG prices have been climbing for weeks due to robust global demand driven by freezing temperatures across Europe, the United States, and Northeast Asia. European and Asian utilities have been scrambling to rebuild inventories, competing for the same spot cargoes and pushing prices higher even before the geopolitical premium from the Iran conflict entered the equation. Taiwan's state-owned oil supplier CPC Corp. announced Saturday that natural gas prices in Taiwan will rise 3% on average in March, directly citing more expensive LNG imports as the cause. CPC estimated that Taiwanese households will see monthly gas expenses increase by NT$5 to NT$7 (approximately US$0.16 to US$0.23), and noted that even after the price hike, retail prices remain below the company's actual import costs — meaning the government is subsidizing gas prices to control inflation, a policy that becomes increasingly expensive as spot LNG prices climb.

The Taiwan price hike is a canary in the coal mine. When sovereign-backed utilities in Asia-Pacific start raising consumer prices and explicitly blaming international LNG costs, the upstream pricing pressure is real and sustained. Europe faces the same dynamic but with an additional vulnerability: unlike Taiwan, which sources LNG from diverse suppliers across the Pacific basin, European gas supply relies heavily on cargoes that transit through or near the Middle East. A Hormuz disruption does not merely raise prices for European buyers — it physically removes cargoes from the supply chain.

Henry Hub at $2.859 — Up 1.06% Friday, But the Iran Premium Has Not Yet Priced In

April Henry Hub futures gained 1.06% on Friday to close at $2.859 per mmBtu. That move occurred before the strikes and before the Hormuz closure. The U.S. benchmark is connected to the global LNG market through America's growing export infrastructure — facilities operated by Cheniere Energy, Venture Global, and others that liquefy domestic gas and ship it to buyers in Europe and Asia. When international LNG prices rise, the arbitrage between Henry Hub and overseas benchmarks widens, pulling more U.S. gas toward export terminals and tightening domestic supply.

Cheniere flagged a $370 million tax credit for burning LNG aboard its shipping fleet and declined to elaborate further, putting fuel costs and shipping logistics squarely in focus for anyone calculating delivered LNG economics. Venture Global, meanwhile, signed a fresh 20-year supply agreement with South Korea's Hanwha Aerospace on Friday, with deliveries beginning in 2030. Venture Global's contracted volumes now exceed 46 million tonnes per year — a staggering commitment that underscores the structural demand growth for LNG regardless of short-term price volatility.

The connection between Hormuz and Henry Hub is not abstract: U.S. LNG exports siphon gas from the domestic grid, and when international prices spike, the incentive to export intensifies. If European TTF prices gap higher on Monday — which they will — the spread to Henry Hub widens, and U.S. gas prices get pulled higher in response. The magnitude depends on how long the strait remains closed and whether LNG tanker traffic reroutes or simply stops.

The Technical Picture — Natural Gas Broke Long-Term Trend Support at $3.01, Now Testing $2.77

Natural gas futures are sitting in a technically precarious position that makes the Monday open even more significant. The front-month contract broke below a long-term rising trendline and a prior swing low at $3.01 last week — a breakdown from the bottom of a large ascending channel that had defined the uptrend since the October 2024 lows. This week's price action confirmed the bearish implications: the weekly chart is on track to complete a bearish engulfing pattern with a close below last week's low of $2.92.

The depth of the decline from the January peak is extraordinary. From the $7.44 high to this week's $2.78 low, natural gas has fallen 62.7% — a drawdown that significantly exceeds the two largest corrections within the prior uptrend. The first correction in 2024 measured 40.65%. The second, following the March 2025 peak, was 46.5%. A 62.7% decline is either the completion of a much larger bear cycle or a massively overextended selloff that is ripe for a violent reversal. The Iran strikes could be the catalyst for that reversal.

Support at $2.77 Is the Monthly Low — Below That, $2.62 From August Becomes the Target

Immediate support held this week at $2.77, which coincides with a higher monthly low. A sustained break below $2.77 would trigger a monthly support breakdown and likely accelerate selling toward $2.62, the August swing low. Below $2.62, there is no meaningful support until the $2.30–$2.40 zone — a level that would imply a return to conditions last seen during the pre-rally accumulation phase.

The falling 20-day moving average sits at $3.20, and the most recent lower swing high is at $3.25. A sustained recovery above $3.25 would be the first signal of a bullish reversal on both daily and weekly timeframes. Until that level is reclaimed, every bounce is technically a selling opportunity within the dominant downtrend.

A Small Bullish Falling Wedge Is Forming — But the Pattern Needs Confirmation

Despite the bearish trend structure, there is a constructive formation developing within the recent price action: a small falling wedge that could serve as the base for a bullish reversal. The wedge sits near a potential support zone where the prior downtrend line — the upper boundary of a large falling wedge that triggered to the upside in October — provides a technical floor. If price can hold this zone and break above $3.25, the wedge resolves bullishly and the recovery rally could be swift, targeting the broken trendline near $3.50 initially and potentially the $4.00 area if momentum builds.

The Iran-driven geopolitical premium could be exactly the catalyst that triggers the wedge breakout. If Monday's open gaps Henry Hub above $3.00 on Hormuz closure fears, the short-term technical picture transforms from bearish to bullish in a single candle. That is the nature of commodity markets during supply shocks: months of technical damage can be erased in 48 hours when the physical market tightens.

Gas Prices at the Pump — U.S. Average at $2.98, Could Push "Well Above" $3.00

U.S. retail gasoline prices averaged $2.98 per gallon last week according to AAA. While gasoline is refined from crude oil rather than natural gas, the two energy markets are interlinked: both respond to the same geopolitical risk premium, both are affected by Hormuz disruption (the strait carries crude and LNG simultaneously), and both feed into the inflation expectations that shape Federal Reserve policy.

Clayton Seigle at the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned that a wider war involving Iranian disruption of tanker traffic could see crude push past $90 per barrel and U.S. gas prices "well above" $3 per gallon. Rystad Energy estimated that limited strikes on Iran's nuclear program and Revolutionary Guard that fall short of regime change or total war could still add $5 to $10 per barrel to crude prices on fear alone. If Brent crude — which closed Friday at $72.87, already a seven-month high — adds $10 on Monday's open, the pass-through to retail gasoline would push pump prices toward $3.20–$3.30 within weeks.

Iran's oil exports of approximately 1.6 million barrels per day — most of which flow to China because U.S. sanctions prevent sales elsewhere — add another dimension. If those exports are disrupted by the strikes or by the Hormuz closure, Chinese refineries will need to source replacement barrels on the global spot market, competing with European and Asian buyers for the same shrinking pool of available supply. That bidding war does not stay contained to crude — it spills into LNG, LPG, and every other energy commodity that competes for tanker capacity and terminal access in the Middle East.

Turkey's Spot Gas Market — Trade Volume Surged 61.25% on Friday

Turkey's Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) provides a useful real-time read on physical gas market activity in one of Europe's key transit countries. Friday's spot gas trade volume surged 61.25% to approximately 6.16 million Turkish liras, up from 3.82 million liras on Thursday. The price of 1,000 cubic meters on the spot market was 14,678 liras ($334 at Friday's exchange rate of 43.92 liras per dollar). Cumulative trade volume was approximately 422,000 cubic meters. Turkey received about 221.22 million cubic meters of gas on Friday.

The 61% volume spike is significant because it occurred before the Iran strikes — it reflects pre-positioning by Turkish utilities and traders who were already hedging against weekend geopolitical risk. Turkey, which sits at the crossroads of Russian pipeline gas and LNG imports from the Mediterranean, is one of the most geopolitically exposed gas markets in the world. If Hormuz disruption reduces LNG availability in the Mediterranean basin, Turkish spot prices will climb rapidly, and the volume surge on Friday suggests market participants were preparing for exactly that outcome.

OPEC+ Meets Sunday — Could Add Supply to Cap Oil, But LNG Has No Equivalent Backstop

OPEC+ is scheduled to meet Sunday, March 1, to discuss April production levels. Sources indicate the group may consider a larger output hike than previously planned, potentially adding supply to counterbalance the geopolitical price spike in crude. If OPEC+ floods the oil market with additional barrels, it could partially cap crude prices and ease some of the broader energy complex pressure.

But natural gas has no OPEC+ equivalent. There is no cartel that can turn on spare LNG capacity with a phone call. LNG supply is constrained by liquefaction plant capacity, tanker availability, and regasification terminal throughput — all of which are physical bottlenecks that cannot be expanded on a weekend timeline. If Hormuz disrupts LNG flows, the supply gap cannot be filled by any policy decision. It can only be resolved by either reopening the strait or rerouting cargoes around the Cape of Good Hope, which adds weeks to delivery times and dramatically increases shipping costs.

Gulf producers are taking preliminary steps: Abu Dhabi plans to ship more Murban crude in April, and Saudi Arabia is increasing production. TP ICAP's Scott Shelton suggested this extra supply could "create a short-term buffer" if tanker traffic avoids Hormuz. But the buffer applies primarily to oil, not gas. LNG export capacity from the Gulf — particularly from Qatar, the world's largest LNG exporter — cannot be rerouted in the same way crude can. Qatari LNG must exit through Hormuz. There is no alternative pipeline or alternative port. If the strait is closed, those cargoes do not move.

The Storage Report Lands Thursday, March 5 — The Next Scheduled Fundamental Catalyst

The weekly EIA storage report, due Thursday, March 5, is the next regularly scheduled data point for U.S. natural gas positioning. CME Group identifies this report as a consistent major mover for gas futures. Heading into winter's tail end, the market will be watching whether storage withdrawals are accelerating (bullish, indicating strong heating demand) or decelerating (bearish, indicating the approach of shoulder season when heating demand fades). In a normal week, the storage number would be the dominant price driver. This week, it will be a footnote compared to the Hormuz headlines.

The Verdict — Natural Gas Futures: Buy the Monday Open, Target $3.25–$3.50, and Ride the Geopolitical Premium

Natural gas futures (Henry Hub) at $2.859 are a buy heading into Monday's open, with an initial target of $3.25 and an extended target of $3.50 if Hormuz disruption persists beyond the first 48 hours.

The asymmetry is extreme. On the downside, gas has already fallen 62.7% from the January $7.44 peak — a decline that exceeds the two largest prior corrections by 16 and 22 percentage points respectively. Technical support at $2.77 held this week. A small bullish falling wedge is forming. The market is already oversold on both daily and weekly timeframes. The downside from $2.86 to the $2.62 breakdown level is $0.24, or 8.4%.

On the upside: Iran has reportedly closed the Strait of Hormuz. Twenty-three percent of global LNG and 31% of LPG transit that waterway. EU gas storage is at 30.09% — dangerously low for late February. Greek-flagged tankers are pulling out of the Gulf. LNG war-risk insurance is about to spike. Taiwan is raising consumer gas prices 3% on LNG cost pressures that existed before the strait closed. Turkey's spot gas volume surged 61% on Friday as traders pre-positioned. Dutch TTF at €32.43 and UK gas at 79.79p/therm were already rising before the geopolitical premium hit. Venture Global just signed a 20-year, 46-million-tonne-per-year LNG contract, confirming structural demand that does not disappear with one weekend's headlines.

A reclaim of $3.25 — the most recent lower swing high and the level that would confirm a bullish reversal on both daily and weekly charts — is the technical trigger. If Monday's open gaps above $3.00 on Hormuz fears (which it should, given the magnitude of the supply threat), the path to $3.25 is a single trading session. A sustained move through $3.25 targets $3.50, and if the strait remains closed for more than a week, the $4.00 area from the March 2025 correction high comes into play.

The bear case requires the conflict to de-escalate immediately, the strait to reopen within days, and shoulder season demand destruction to overwhelm the geopolitical premium. That sequence is possible — Barclays noted that the $3 to $5 per barrel risk premium in oil "could fade quickly" absent real disruption. But the strait is already closed. Greek tankers are already rerouting. The disruption is not hypothetical — it is happening. And natural gas, with no OPEC+ spare capacity backstop and EU storage at 30%, is the most exposed energy commodity to a sustained Hormuz closure.

Buy the open. Size for volatility — position at 50–60% of normal to account for the gap risk. Place stops below $2.62 on a closing basis. And recognize that the 62.7% decline from the January high has created the conditions where a single geopolitical catalyst can reverse months of technical damage in days. Monday is that catalyst

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