MercadoLibre Stock Price Forecast - MELI near $2,200 as LatAm leader reprices before Q4

NASDAQ:MELI – High-Growth LatAm Platform Repriced After 20% Slide

NASDAQ:MELI – Current Price, Range And De-Rating Versus LatAm Peers

NASDAQ:MELI trades around $2,206.80 today, up about 3.25% on the session, with an intraday range between $2,127.97 and $2,241.99. The 52-week range is $1,723.90 to $2,645.22, so you are looking at a drawdown of roughly 20% from the peak above $2,600 while the stock still sits solidly above the lower end of the range. Market cap stands near $111.7 billion, with trailing earnings implying a P/E around 53.77 and average daily volume close to 530,000 shares. Over the last twelve months the iShares Latin America 40 ETF is up about 64%, while NASDAQ:MELI is higher by around 17%, so the name has lagged the regional beta even though it continues to deliver roughly 40% year-over-year revenue growth on a $7.4 billion quarterly sales base. Options imply about 36% volatility and price in a near-term earnings move of roughly 6.9%, while short interest sits near 1.8%, which is low for a platform with this growth profile. For live tape and depth, the core reference is the real-time chart: https://www.tradingnews.com/Stocks/MELI/real_time_chart

NASDAQ:MELI – Commerce And Fintech Flywheels Under One Super-App

The operating model rests on two integrated engines. Under the MercadoLibre brand, NASDAQ:MELI runs the core commerce ecosystem: a third-party marketplace layered with some first-party inventory, advertising tools to boost seller visibility, and a logistics network that now includes close to one hundred fulfillment and cross-dock centers. Most parcels across Brazil, Mexico and Argentina are delivered within about forty-eight hours and same- or next-day deliveries are expanding fast. Under the MercadoPago brand, the company processes payments both online and offline, runs acquiring for merchants, issues cards, extends loans and holds savings and checking balances as a digital bank. The credit stack spans credit cards, personal loans and secured business lines. Governance also matters here: the board includes figures such as Nicolas Aguzin, with experience leading JPMorgan’s Latin America business and later Asia, which gives NASDAQ:MELI additional credibility in global banking circles. The result is not “just” an e-commerce site but a LatAm super-app combining marketplace, money movement and credit in one ecosystem.

NASDAQ:MELI – Revenue Mix Across Brazil, Mexico And Argentina

Geography and segment mix explain most of the risk-reward. In the latest quarter Brazil delivered about $4.01 billion of revenue and accounted for roughly 54% of the consolidated top line. Mexico contributed around 22%, Argentina about 19%, and all other Latin American markets combined roughly 4%. On the segment side, commerce services – marketplace fees, logistics and advertising – make up around 56% of revenue, while payments and credit drive the remainder. That footprint means U.S. operations in Venezuela or generic LatAm headlines move sentiment, but the direct revenue exposure is dominated by Brazil, then Mexico, then Argentina. Political tension between the current U.S. administration and Brazil’s government, Argentina’s currency volatility and Mexican consumer conditions all matter more than isolated unrest in smaller markets. Any valuation work on NASDAQ:MELI must be anchored in that 54/22/19 split and the 56/44 commerce-to-fintech mix, not on vague “emerging-market risk” narratives.

NASDAQ:MELI – GMV, Active Buyers And Engagement Metrics

The marketplace is still compounding volume at high double digits. Gross merchandise volume reached about $16.5 billion in the latest quarter, up 28% year over year in reported U.S. dollars and about 35% in constant currency. Brazil and Mexico both accelerated to around 36% GMV growth from high-teens previously, while Argentina looked weak in reported terms but would have delivered roughly 44% growth in constant currency. That acceleration tracks directly to a deliberate change in the value proposition: NASDAQ:MELI cut free-shipping thresholds in Brazil, encouraging more frequent and lower-ticket orders. Active buyers jumped to about 76.8–77 million, an increase of 26% year over year, with net-new buyers in the quarter near 6 million. Management indicated that roughly 4 million of those buyers were essentially new to the platform, not just reactivated accounts. Items sold grew about 39%, outpacing GMV and confirming that the mix is shifting toward higher-frequency categories. Engagement per buyer and average GMV per active buyer are the key health metrics; both are rising, and that supports volume for logistics and payments simultaneously.

NASDAQ:MELI – Payments Scale, AUM Growth And Credit Expansion

On the fintech side, the scale is already comparable to many standalone payment companies. Total Payment Volume has been reported around $71.2 billion for the quarter, up roughly 41% year over year, with earlier disclosures citing TPV near $47.4 billion at 32% growth as the ramp progressed. Within that, acquiring TPV – processing for merchants – grew about 32%, driven by both in-store adoption and e-commerce penetration. Fintech monthly active users reached around 72.2 million, up 29% year over year, so the payments adoption curve tracks the marketplace user curve instead of lagging it. Assets under management in savings and checking accounts climbed to about $15.07 billion, nearly doubling in twelve months as more users park balances in the ecosystem. The credit portfolio expanded to roughly $11.02 billion, up 83% year over year, with around 80% of exposure in higher-yield consumer loans and credit cards. Despite that rapid growth, loans more than ninety days past due sit near 17.6%, about 30 basis points better than a year ago. In absolute terms that non-performing ratio is high versus a conservative bank, but in the context of a high-yield, high-risk consumer book it is acceptable as long as delinquencies continue to trend down and pricing reflects the risk. Tracking how insiders trade against this growth remains essential, and that information is concentrated here: https://www.tradingnews.com/Stocks/MELI/stock_profile/insider_transactions

NASDAQ:MELI – Margins, EBITDA, Free Cash Flow And Valuation

Profitability confirms that the growth is not being bought at any price. Revenue in Q3 reached about $7.4 billion, up 40% year over year and roughly $200 million ahead of consensus estimates. GAAP EPS printed around $8.32 versus expectations near $9.30 as heavy investment, higher shipping cost and Argentina-related FX losses hit the bottom line. EBIT still grew about 30% year over year and EPS rose about 6%. Excluding one-time items, EBIT expansion was near 21% with operating margins narrowing by about 150 basis points. The adjusted operating margin stands close to 9.8%, only about 70 basis points lower than a year ago despite the deliberate shipping subsidy. Adjusted EBITDA came in around $933 million, up 31% year over year. On a full-year view, free cash flow per share is near $170. With the stock around $2,206.80, that implies a free-cash-flow yield in the 7.5–8% range, which is not typical for a company still growing sales by about 40% and EBITDA by more than 30%. On simple valuation math, if you take roughly $60 of forward EPS, apply a 45x multiple and assume that growth and margins hold, you land near $2,700 per share as a reasonable fair-value estimate, down modestly from prior $2,800 targets but still about 22% above the current spot. That also translates to roughly 20x forward adjusted EBITDA. The de-rating is visible in the multiple; the business is still scaling.

NASDAQ:MELI – Ecosystem KPIs, Logistics Density And User Behavior

The operational KPIs show a platform deepening its moat rather than just widening the top line. Unique active buyers are around 77 million and fintech monthly active users around 72.2 million, so most commerce users already sit inside the payments funnel. Same- and next-day shipments increased about 28% year over year, making delivery speeds competitive with or better than many global peers in the region. Items sold, up 39%, signal that more of everyday consumption is shifting onto the platform, which in turn increases logistics density and lowers unit cost over time. That gives NASDAQ:MELI more pricing flexibility for shipping incentives and allows it to defend take rates even when competition grows aggressive. Every new buyer who comes in through lower shipping thresholds feeds into card issuance, wallet adoption and credit offers. Every small merchant that lists on the marketplace is a cross-sell target for acquiring and working-capital loans. That closed loop between commerce, logistics and financial services is the core difference versus single-segment rivals.

NASDAQ:MELI – Consensus Expectations, EPS Revisions And Targets

Sell-side expectations tightened in the last ninety days. There have been about sixteen EPS downgrades against just two upgrades as analysts recalibrated for higher logistic costs, FX volatility and heavier reinvestment. For 2025, consensus looks for only around 7% EPS growth as shipping investments and macro headwinds flow through, before a sharp acceleration in 2026 when EPS could move above $80 if current trajectories in GMV, TPV and credit hold. Using the more conservative ~$60 near-term EPS base gives a cleaner multiple snapshot and avoids over-reliance on out-year forecasts. Even on that reduced number, a 45x multiple produces a ~$2,700 fair-value area. If EPS does approach $80 in 2026 and the stock still trades at 30–35x, then the upside extends beyond the low-20s percentage. The key point is that the multiple compression from growth-stock euphoria to current levels has already happened while revenue and EBITDA kept compounding. The market is paying less for each point of growth now than it did when NASDAQ:MELI traded near $2,645.22.

NASDAQ:MELI – Technical Setup Between $1,900 Support And $2,300 Cap

The chart reflects both prior enthusiasm and recent caution. NASDAQ:MELI rolled over from the mid-2025 high around $2,645 and has been printing lower highs since July. The long-term 200-day moving average, which had been sloping up, has flattened after roughly a quarter of sideways trading, showing that momentum has cooled. The $2,250–$2,300 area has become a clear resistance band where rallies stall, and there is strong structural support near $1,900 tied to an uptrend line that reaches back several years. The RSI momentum oscillator has spent most of its time between 30 and 60, a mildly bearish regime that suggests selling pressure, but without capitulation. Short interest at about 1.8% means there is no large embedded short base that could cause a squeeze; price needs real buyers, not just forced covering, to break the downtrend. From a trading perspective, deep-value entries cluster between $1,900 and $2,000, while confirmation buyers will want to see a sustained move above $2,300 with RSI pushing decisively above 60. Until then, NASDAQ:MELI trades as a high-beta growth name consolidating after a strong multi-year run. Near-term behavior around earnings can be monitored directly on the live chart: https://www.tradingnews.com/Stocks/MELI/real_time_chart

NASDAQ:MELI – Key Macro, FX, Credit And Competitive Risks

The risk stack is clear and should not be minimized. Brazil contributes about 54% of revenue, so any escalation in tensions between the Trump administration and Brazil’s government, new tariffs or domestic policy missteps can hit consumer confidence, FX and equity valuations simultaneously. Argentina contributes 19% and remains a source of currency and policy volatility; the FX losses that weighed on GAAP EPS last quarter are direct evidence. Mexico at 22% of revenue is less politically noisy but remains sensitive to U.S. trade policy and remittance flows. On the credit side, the loan book has grown 83% year over year to around $11.02 billion. If macro conditions deteriorate, delinquency ratios near 17.6% could spike, and provisioning would hit margins. Logistics and fulfillment are capital-intensive. If NASDAQ:MELI does not continue to invest in fulfillment centers and routing technology, shipping costs can rise faster than revenue and squeeze profitability. Competition from both local players and global platforms entering Latin America is ongoing; heavy discounting or subsidized shipping from rivals would pressure take rates and force NASDAQ:MELI to protect share, at least in the short term. There is also the broader geopolitical backdrop, including U.S. operations in Venezuela, which can weigh on Latin sentiment even though direct exposure is not material in the revenue breakdown. These risks are real, but a significant part of them is already embedded in the ~20% correction from the highs and in the recent EPS downgrades. Insider trading patterns, available here https://www.tradingnews.com/Stocks/MELI/stock_profile/insider_transactions and broader corporate data on https://www.tradingnews.com/Stocks/MELI/stock_profile, remain the cleanest forward indicators of how management views that balance.

NASDAQ:MELI – Buy, Sell Or Hold Around $2,200 Spot

The numbers line up as follows. Revenue grew about 40% year over year to $7.4 billion in Q3. GMV hit roughly $16.5 billion, up 28% in dollars and 35% in constant currency, with Brazil and Mexico both accelerating to about 36% growth. TPV stands between $47.4 billion and $71.2 billion depending on the cut, growing 32–41% year over year, while assets under management reached about $15.07 billion and the credit portfolio expanded to $11.02 billion with improving non-performing ratios. Adjusted operating margin is near 9.8%, adjusted EBITDA about $933 million, and free cash flow per share around $170, for an FCF yield near 8% at a ~$2,200 price. Forward EPS around $60 and a reasonable 45x multiple support a ~$2,700 fair-value band, with additional upside if 2026 EPS approaches $80. The stock sits between firm support near $1,900 and resistance around $2,250–$2,300 after a 20% slide from its $2,645.22 high. Against that backdrop, the data supports a Buy on NASDAQ:MELI at current levels for investors who can tolerate LatAm macro volatility and equity drawdowns. You are paying about 20x forward EBITDA and mid-40s forward earnings for a platform that still delivers around 30–40% top-line growth, 30%+ EBITDA growth and an 8% free-cash-flow yield, with clear but identifiable risks that are already visible in the multiple and the chart.

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