XRP ETF Trade Tightens as XRPI, XRPR and Bitwise XRP Slip with XRP-USD Near $1.90

Ripple XRP ETF Complex: XRPI, XRPR And Bitwise XRP Under Pressure

Spot XRP-USD: Heavy Token, Fading Momentum Around $1.90

Spot XRP-USD is trading around $1.90–$1.91, with market cap near $116–117 billion and 24-hour volume down to roughly $1.13 billion, a drop of about -52.92% versus prior sessions. Price sits well below the $3.40–$3.65 zone printed in 2025 and is struggling to hold a soft floor near $2.00, which is now acting more as overhead supply than firm support. Over the last three months XRP-USD is down around -28%, signaling that the current phase is corrective rather than trending. Short-term structure looks like a descending pattern with sellers defending the $1.96–$2.00 band and buyers forced to defend around $1.89 and then $1.60 if pressure intensifies. Volatility remains elevated, but the direction of travel since mid-2025 is lower highs and lower local peaks, which caps upside until flows and macro backdrop improve.

XRPI, XRPR And Bitwise XRP ETF: Prices Compressed Toward The Lower Half Of The Range

The listed XRP ETFs are all trading in the lower half of their post-launch ranges, which confirms the cooling in risk appetite. XRPI (Bitwise XRP ETF on NASDAQ: XRPI) trades around $10.93, down $0.11 (-1.04%) on the session, with an intraday band of $10.91–$11.18 and a 52-week range of $10.44–$23.53. At roughly $10.9, the fund sits less than 5% above its 52-week low and more than 50% below its top near $23.53, showing how much optionality has already been priced out. XRPR (REX Osprey XRP ETF on BATS: XRPR) is quoted near $15.59, down $0.18 (-1.14%), with a day range of $15.57–$15.86 and a 52-week band of $14.79–$25.99 on very modest average volume of about 12.35K shares, which means any future redemptions or inflows can move the price quickly. The Bitwise XRP ETF on NYSEARCA (ticker: XRP) trades around $21.26, off $0.38 (-1.76%) on the day, with a range of $21.26–$21.73 and a 52-week corridor of $20.00–$26.90 and average volume near 79.8K. With spot XRP-USD stuck below $2 and all three vehicles clustering just above their 52-week lows, the ETF complex is behaving like a geared proxy on fading enthusiasm rather than a high-beta leader into new highs.

Flows Into XRPI: One Strong Inflow Day Does Not Reverse A Fragile Picture

The Bitwise XRP ETF (XRP, NYSEARCA) attracted a single, visible inflow of around $5.26 million on January 22, 2026, lifting assets under management to roughly $299.3 million. That print represents about 1.76% of AUM added in one day, which is a meaningful allocation decision by larger accounts. At a fund price around $21–22, that inflow reflects on the order of 240–250K shares, enough to confirm there is still institutional demand using the ETF structure to buy weakness. The problem is that this fresh capital landed against a spot tape where XRP-USD is still about -28.36% lower over three months and short-term technical signals on the token remain in Sell territory. That sets up a divergence: ETF allocators willing to accumulate into weakness versus traders still fading every bounce. Unless daily inflows of the $5–10 million scale become frequent rather than episodic, one strong day of demand will not reset the broader downtrend.

From $0 To $1.7 Billion: XRP ETFs Built A Base, Now The First Weekly Outflow Hits

Since approval in late 2025, spot XRP ETFs have moved from zero to roughly $1.7 billion in aggregate ETF assets, turning XRP into the second-fastest asset after Bitcoin to cross the $1 billion ETF AUM line. That ramp was driven by distribution, not by protocol change: brokerage accounts, retirement plans and advisory platforms could finally plug XRP into regulated wrappers, and capital followed the pipes. The latest weekly data marked the first net weekly outflow from the XRP ETF complex. For the first time, redemptions across products exceeded creations over a full week, coinciding with price stagnation near $1.90 and sharply lower trading volumes. That pivot matters: when an ETF complex moves from steady net creations to net outflows, the wrapper shifts from absorbing supply to releasing it back into the market. For XRP, that switch lands exactly as spot structure is fragile and macro risk is rising, which amplifies any incremental selling.

ETF Demand Versus Spot Price: Structural Buyers Against Short-Term Sellers In XRP-USD

The flow pattern shows two different time horizons fighting over the same asset. ETF buyers in XRPI, XRPR and the Bitwise XRP fund are using red days to accumulate exposure through regulated vehicles, often with mandates measured in years. The $5.26 million single-day inflow into Bitwise’s fund, plus the earlier ramp to about $1.7 billion in total XRP ETF AUM, reflect that long-only base. At the same time, XRP-USD spot traders remain cautious. Three-month returns of -28%, repeated failures to hold above $2, and rising weekly ETF outflows confirm that short-term participants are still exiting on strength and not yet treating the ETF complex as a floor. That tension is visible in forecasts: one AI-driven model pegs a 1-month projection for XRP-USD around $1.69, below the current $1.90–1.91 zone, but a 1-year target near $4.33, roughly a +125% gain from today’s price. The near-term pricing leans bearish; the twelve-month horizon assumes that ETF demand eventually dominates.

Macro And Regulation: Why XRP Carries A Higher Risk Premium Than Most Large Caps

Macro and policy keep leaning against XRP. Stronger economic data and slower-than-expected rate-cut paths keep real yields elevated, which historically drains liquidity from higher-beta crypto assets first. In that environment, a token like XRP-USD with three-month losses near -28% sells off faster than defensive equities or even the larger BTC-USD complex. On top of that, XRP still carries regulatory baggage. The earlier SEC case is largely resolved, but new US market-structure rules are delayed, and global regulatory frameworks are uneven. That uncertainty directly hits XRP more than many peers because its thesis is tied to cross-border payments and institutional adoption. When legislation stalls or enforcement risk rises, ETF committees and treasuries widen their risk discount and either slow allocations into XRP products such as XRPI and XRPR or rotate part of their exposure into assets with cleaner policy narratives. Until there is clear statutory language that de-risks how tokens like XRP are treated, that policy overhang will keep the risk premium high.

Sentiment Split: From Bearish Short-Term Forecasts To Aggressive $4 Targets For XRP-USD

Forecasts around XRP-USD are polarized. On the cautious side, models that integrate macro headwinds, ETF outflows and technical structure flag a bearish near-term path, with a one-month glide path toward $1.69, implying potential downside of roughly -10–12% from the current $1.90 zone if sellers push price through $1.89 support. Short-term ETF flow data and the first weekly net outflow support that stance. On the optimistic side, discretionary analysts still call for a doubling in XRP-USD over the next year. One high-profile projection pins $4 as a realistic 2026 target if ETF inflows stabilize around or above the $1 billion+ base, Ripple’s $2.5 billion acquisition spree in 2025 starts to generate real payment volume, and the summer 2025 high at $3.65 is retested and cleared. That move from $1.90 to $4.00 would represent about +110% appreciation in spot and a similar step-change in ETF prices, implying XRPI back toward the high-teens or low-twenties and the Bitwise XRP ETF potentially challenging its upper $26.90 band again. The market is currently pricing something between those extremes, leaning closer to the bearish path as long as price holds below $2.00–2.20.

Competitive Pressure: Remittix, Bitcoin Everlight And The Rotation Away From Legacy Payment Tokens

Capital is not only moving within the XRP complex; it is also rotating into new payment-focused projects. Remittix (RTX) is one example pulling attention. Its token sale has reportedly moved more than 93% of a 750 million-token allocation at around $0.123 per token, raising roughly $28.8 million with a live wallet already on the Apple App Store and a PayFi platform scheduled to launch on 9 February 2026. At the same time, other infrastructure-style plays, such as Bitcoin Everlight with a 21,000,000,000 BTCL fixed supply and node rewards targeted in the 4–8% range, are positioning themselves as transaction-routing layers rather than pure speculative tokens. These projects sit outside the ETF universe today but drain marginal dollars that might otherwise cycle back into XRP-USD, XRPI, XRPR or the Bitwise XRP ETF on dips. The first weekly net outflow across XRP ETFs, combined with rising inflows into presales and alternative payment protocols, confirms that at least part of the market is willing to test new rails instead of concentrating exclusively on the legacy cross-border token.

Risk Map: Key Levels For XRP-USD, XRPI, XRPR And Bitwise XRP

For XRP-USD, the immediate pivot is the $1.89–$2.00 zone. Holding above $1.89 keeps the structure in a noisy range with resistance around $1.96 and then $2.20, while a clean breakdown opens a slide toward $1.60 and, in a deeper risk-off phase, closer to $1.00. A sustained recovery above $2.20–2.40 would be the first indication that ETF inflows have turned durable again and macro has stopped tightening financial conditions. On the ETF side, XRPI near $10.93 has its first meaningful support just above the 52-week low at $10.44, with resistance in the $12–14 band where prior supply accumulated on the way down from $23.53. XRPR at $15.59 is pinned between its low at $14.79 and former support in the high-teens; sustained volume above $18 would signal that capital is returning instead of just short-covering. The Bitwise XRP ETF at $21.26 has a hard floor at $20.00 and upside room back into the mid-twenties only if weekly flows flip back to consistent net creations instead of the recent outflow print. These levels matter because ETFs do not have classic “insider transactions” the way operating companies do; their only true insider signal is creations/redemptions. When creations add 1–2% of AUM in a day, as the $5.26 million Bitwise inflow did, that is the closest thing this structure has to insider conviction.

Verdict On XRP, XRPI, XRPR And Bitwise XRP: Speculative Hold, Not A Full-Throttle Buy

Putting all the numbers together – XRP-USD around $1.90–1.91, three-month performance near -28%, the first ever weekly ETF outflow, single-day Bitwise inflows of $5.26 million against roughly $299 million in AUM, total XRP ETF assets near $1.7 billion, a one-month model target at $1.69 and twelve-month targets between $4.00–4.33 – the structure points to a Hold rather than an outright Buy or Sell. Short-term, the tape is fragile, flows have turned mixed, and macro plus regulation are clear headwinds. Longer-term, the existence of a multi-billion-dollar ETF base, Ripple’s $2.5 billion acquisition push, and credible upside targets around $4 keep a bullish path open if policy stabilizes and flows resume. For XRP-USD, that means treating the $1.60–1.90 area as a zone for high-risk, tactical accumulation only if you accept double-digit downside and are aiming at $3–4 over a multi-quarter horizon. For XRPI, XRPR and the Bitwise XRP ETF, current prices close to 52-week lows justify a Hold with a bullish bias on further dips, not a chase. A full Buy upgrade would require clear evidence of sustained net creations across the ETF complex, spot XRP-USD reclaiming and holding above $2.20, and at least one regulatory milestone that narrows the policy risk discount around the token.

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