Solana price forecast: SOL-USD clings to $124 as market tests $120 line in the sand

Solana price at $124: network strength versus a fragile $120 floor

Network activity for Solana (SOL-USD) explodes while price stalls around $120–$125

Solana (SOL-USD) is trading roughly in the $120–$125 band, after bouncing from lows near $118 and failing multiple times above $134–$135. Over the last week, SOL-USD is down between 8.5% and 14%, depending on the reference point, even as on-chain activity looks like a full-blown bull phase. Weekly active users on Solana have climbed for a fourth consecutive week to about 5.1 million, up roughly 4% week-on-week and sitting at the highest level since June 2025. Weekly transaction volume jumped from around 466 million transactions at the end of December to approximately 764.9 million in the latest week, a 64% increase in a month. Historically, when Solana processed this kind of transaction load, SOL-USD traded near $253 in November 2024 and around $240 in September 2025. Today the token sits near $124, roughly half those levels despite similar throughput. That gap is the core tension: the network is behaving like a top-tier growth chain while the token trades like a macro-hit risk asset stuck at a critical support band around $117–$120.

Memecoin flows on Solana: $6.8–$8 billion sector, $1.2 billion days, but only short-lived price pops for SOL-USD

Speculation in Solana memecoins has returned aggressively. Aggregate valuations of Solana-based meme tokens are estimated in the $6.8–$8 billion range after a wave of early-2026 inflows. Launch platforms such as Pump.fun have printed peak daily volumes near $1.2 billion, with some sessions dominated by viral microcaps that spike and fade in hours. That frenzy helped push SOL-USD back above $139 earlier in January and briefly toward the mid-$140s, but the move failed. Price then rolled back down into the low $120s as the first burst of speculative capital took profits or rotated out. The behavior is typical: memecoin cycles drive fees, usage, and temporary leverage demand on Solana, but the impact on the underlying SOL-USD tends to be episodic. Once initial euphoria fades, the base token reverts to macro and structural flows. Today’s setup shows exactly that pattern. Memecoins have re-ignited on-chain activity and trading, yet SOL-USD still trades closer to $120 than to $150, underlining how much of the recent flow was short-term, not long-term accumulation.

Spot and derivatives flows on SOL-USD: huge turnover, positioning being unwound not built

The latest leg down toward $118–$120 has been driven by position rotation rather than fresh conviction buying. Spot trading volume in Solana spiked by more than 270–300% in 24 hours to around $6.4 billion, even as price slipped roughly 3–6% in that window. On the derivatives side, futures volume surged about 256% to nearly $14.8 billion, while futures open interest edged lower by roughly 0.7–1% to around $7.4–7.5 billion. That combination—booming volume with slightly falling open interest—signals that traders are closing and flipping positions rather than building large new directional bets. Liquidations confirm the flush. Over the last 24 hours, more than $60 million of SOL longs were liquidated versus roughly $2.1 million in shorts, a clear long wipeout. Funding rates have turned slightly negative around -0.0036%, reflecting a tilt toward short bias or at least a loss of bullish dominance. The market has moved from over-levered optimism into a reset zone around $120, where both bulls and bears are more cautious and short-term turnover dominates.

ETF and institutional demand for Solana cools: weekly inflows fall from $46.9 million to $9.6 million

The institutional picture for Solana has weakened on the margin. US spot SOL exchange-traded funds recorded their weakest weekly net inflows since launch, pulling in around $9.57 million versus roughly $46.88 million the previous week. That drop of almost 80% indicates that larger, regulated money has stepped back after earlier enthusiasm. The shift fits with broader risk-off behavior driven by politics and tariffs. President Trump’s latest threat to impose a 100% tariff on Canada if it strikes a deal with China hit markets just as Asia opened, triggering a sharp cross-asset wobble. For Solana, that shock translated into an overnight dump to the $118–$120 area and the volume spike above $6 billion in spot. Sentiment gauges echo the stress. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from around 54 (moderate optimism) to roughly 29 (fear). So the ETF bid is not gone, but the phase of strong, consistent inflows is clearly on pause. At $124, SOL-USD is being priced more by global macro stress and ETF hesitation than by its own usage metrics.

Treasuries and staking: a 7% SOL yield doesn’t erase a 60% price drawdown

Corporate and treasury holders of Solana provide a second lens into how the asset is being treated. One listed example holds just under 2 million SOL, worth close to $250 million at current prices around $120–$125. The average cost basis on that position is near $195 per SOL, meaning the holding is significantly underwater as SOL-USD trades almost 60% below its peak from about a year ago. Nearly all of that SOL is staked, generating roughly 7% gross annualized yield before validator fees. The company has gone further and launched an institutional-grade validator in partnership with a major exchange, pivoting from a passive treasury to active infrastructure participation. That 7% yield and validator economics help reframe Solana as a cash-flow-bearing asset rather than a pure price bet, but they do not remove principal risk. At $124, the annual staking income per token is roughly $8–$9, which means it would take more than 8–9 years of unchanged yield to recover a $75 mark-to-market loss per coin from a $195 entry, assuming no price change. Treasury behavior therefore looks patient but trapped: large holders are incentivized to support the ecosystem, but they also need price to eventually retest $180–$200 for the strategy to justify itself.

Technical structure for SOL-USD: $117–$120 as the hinge, $100 as the air pocket

Technically, Solana is still in a corrective phase. SOL-USD has slipped below its short-term trend support around $124 and remains capped by key moving averages. The 50-day moving average sits in the mid-$130s and has repeatedly acted as a ceiling; rallies toward $135 have been sold quickly. The 100-day EMA near $144 is the next resistance band, with the 200-day EMA still higher, all three sloping down, which confirms a bearish alignment. Price action is hugging the lower side of the Bollinger Bands, while the middle band has turned lower, signalling that the trend drift is still down. Momentum indicators agree. The RSI on the daily chart has slipped into the 38–45 zone, weak but not yet deeply oversold. The MACD histogram remains negative, though the bars are contracting, hinting that downside momentum is slowing, not yet reversing. Structurally, the market is now trading between a critical support cluster and a heavy resistance belt. Below, the December low near $117–$118, together with the earlier reaction floor around $116.65, forms the main support zone. A daily close under $117 would bring the first downside targets at around $112 (S1 pivot) and then the psychological $100 level. Above, the recovery map runs through $125 first, then $130, with the real regime shift only if SOL-USD can reclaim and hold the $135–$140 band where the 50-day average currently caps price. As long as SOL-USD trades under $135 and struggles to hold above $120, the chart favors a grind lower or sideways with risk of a capitulation spike toward $100.

Macro, politics and cross-asset pressure: why Solana (SOL-USD) trades like a macro proxy

The disconnect between strong on-chain metrics and a soft SOL-USD price is largely macro-driven. Trump’s escalating tariff threats inject new uncertainty into global risk assets just as markets were already juggling questions about Fed policy, US growth, and geopolitical risk. A 100% tariff threat on Canada if it collaborates with China hits sentiment far beyond trade; it reinforces the idea that policy shocks can appear at any time. In parallel, foreign-exchange markets are dealing with speculation about Japanese yen intervention and rate-check activity from the New York Fed. When traders see potential coordinated action to support JPY, risk assets—including crypto—often trade defensively as dollar dynamics shift. At the same time, Bitcoin has slipped below $90,000 with ETF outflows, and that sets the tone for the entire crypto complex. In that environment, Solana’s fundamentals are fighting a headwind. Usage metrics, fee generation, and memecoin flows say “growth,” but ETF investors, macro funds, and high-frequency players are de-risking or trading shorter horizons. As long as tariffs, yen rumors, and ETF outflows dominate the narrative, SOL-USD will behave less like a pure tech growth asset and more like a high-beta macro proxy.

Trading view on Solana (SOL-USD) at $120–$125: buy, sell or hold?

With SOL-USD near $124, a week-long range between $118 and $134, spot volume above $6 billion, futures volumes near $15 billion, ETF inflows collapsing from $46.9 million to $9.6 million, and long liquidations over $60 million in 24 hours, the market is clearly in a stress test phase around the $117–$120 floor. Network fundamentals argue that the current price is cheap relative to historical relationships: 5.1 million weekly active users and roughly 765 million weekly transactions previously coincided with SOL-USD near $240–$253, not $120–$125. Institutional and ETF flows, however, show that big money is not yet willing to price that upside, and the technical structure still points to a risk of a flush toward $100 if $117 breaks with size. Weighing those forces leads to a split conclusion. Structurally and over a multi-quarter horizon, Solana (SOL-USD) looks like a high-conviction speculative buy on weakness for investors who can tolerate a move from $124 down to $100 and still hold. The network is growing, the ecosystem is active, and the current price bakes in a lot of macro fear relative to on-chain reality. Tactically, for shorter-term traders, SOL-USD is a hold with a bearish bias as long as price stays below $135 and ETF flows remain muted. A clean daily close back above $135–$140 with improving ETF and derivatives data would justify upgrading that stance to outright bullish again. Until then, the market is trading a tight binary around $120: hold that floor and the path back to $145 is open; lose it and the market will likely test the $100 area before serious new capital steps in.

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