Natural Gas Price Forecast: NG=F Hovers Near $4.07 Support After 22% Weekly Slide

Natural Gas (NG=F) Weekly Price Reset After 22% Selloff

Short-Term Damage And Winter Premium Wipeout In Natural Gas (NG=F)

U.S. natural gas futures have effectively erased the entire early-December winter premium in a single week. January Henry Hub NG=F is trading around $4.11 per mmBtu after printing an intraday low near $4.07, a drop of roughly 22% from the December spike to about $5.50. The contract cut straight through the former support around $4.15 (the June swing high) and landed exactly in the $4.07–$4.09 band, where the 50-day moving average and a rising channel line intersect. That zone is now the first real line of defense for bulls after five consecutive sessions of lower highs and lower lows. The spot market confirms the reversal: Henry Hub cash slid from about $5.20 on December 5 to roughly $4.61 by December 10, showing that the weather-driven bid disappeared as soon as forecasts flipped and the early-winter squeeze narrative broke.

Warm Weather Shock And Forced Long Liquidation In Natural Gas (NG=F)

The core catalyst for this collapse is a sharp shift in weather expectations combined with crowded length. Forecasts now show above-normal temperatures across large parts of the western, central and southern U.S. between roughly December 17 and 26, directly cutting into space-heating demand just as traders had priced in a prolonged cold spell. Total Lower-48 demand, including exports, sits near 110–111 Bcf per day, around 3–4% lower than a year ago for the same date, making clear that the recent cold impulse has faded both in models and in realized flows. Once Natural Gas (NG=F) broke decisively back below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, long positions built on the “colder winter” thesis started unwinding aggressively. Stops were triggered, systematic strategies joined, and shorts pushed price through obvious reference levels at $4.15, $4.09, and now $4.07. The result is a classic winter long-liquidation wave: stale bulls exiting, fresh shorts leaning into every failed bounce, and the entire November rally erased in a handful of days.

Natural Gas (NG=F) Fundamentals: Storage, Production And LNG Flows

Behind the volatility, the fundamental picture remains nuanced. Working gas in U.S. storage stands near 3,746 Bcf after a 177 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 5, roughly double the five-year average draw for that week and, on paper, a bullish data point. Yet inventories are still about 2.8–3.0% above the five-year seasonal norm and roughly flat versus last year, which is enough cushion to prevent panic bids as soon as models turn mild. On supply, Lower-48 dry gas production is hovering around 109–110 Bcf per day, with recent daily estimates peaking near 112.5 Bcf per day, approximately 7% higher than a year earlier. The rig count has eased slightly to around 127 but remains just under a 2.25-year high, confirming that producers have not materially backed off. LNG is the structural demand anchor: feedgas deliveries to U.S. export plants run around 18.5–18.8 Bcf per day, close to record levels, and November LNG exports hit about 10.9 million tonnes, with roughly 70% of cargoes heading to Europe. Official projections still call for Henry Hub to average around $4.30 per mmBtu over the current heating season, about 22% above last winter, with U.S. dry production near 109 Bcf per day in 2026 and LNG exports moving into the mid-teens in Bcf per day. Short term, price is dominated by weather and positioning; medium term, structural export demand and high but disciplined supply keep the floor higher than in past winters.

Global Benchmarks: TTF, JKM And Spot Natural Gas Signals

The pressure in Natural Gas (NG=F) is echoed in global benchmarks. Dutch TTF front-month has traded roughly €26.8–€27.3 per MWh this week, a 19–20-month low zone driven by milder European weather projections, strong Norwegian pipeline flows above ~340 mcm per day, and heavy LNG send-out into key terminals. In Asia, the Japan-Korea Marker sits around $10.7–$10.8 per mmBtu, also near a 20-month low, as spot LNG availability remains high and weather-related demand stays soft. On the micro side, Turkey’s spot gas market priced 1,000 cubic meters at 14,392.27 lira with daily traded volume around 340,000 m³ and total trade value near 4.89 million lira, about 13.4% lower than the previous session—another data point showing fading near-term demand intensity. At the same time, U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico are trending toward record volumes, tightening the U.S. balance from the south even as the headline NG=F contract sells off.

European Storage Tightness And The Embedded Bullish Tail For Natural Gas (NG=F)

Despite subdued TTF pricing, Europe is heading through December with a materially tighter storage cushion than last year. EU gas inventories sit near 71% of capacity (roughly 810 TWh) versus about 81% at the same point in the prior year, leaving the system with less protection if a late-December or January cold wave hits. Analysts emphasize that relaxed storage rules and strong LNG supply make the market feel comfortable for now, but lower inventory coverage increases sensitivity to any combination of colder weather, pipeline disruption, or geopolitical risk. Speculative positions in TTF have skewed bearish at these price levels, which creates the setup for a violent short-covering move if fundamentals turn. Any sudden spike in TTF or JKM pricing would re-widen the spread versus Henry Hub and reinforce LNG export economics, feeding back into Natural Gas (NG=F) via higher feedgas pulls and a stronger structural bid later in the winter.

Natural Gas (NG=F) Technical Structure: Support, Resistance And Reversal Zones

Technically, NG=F is sitting at a critical inflection band where high-probability support and rising reversal risk collide. The contract has already logged five consecutive sessions of lower highs and lower lows, confirming a short-term downtrend. Friday’s low at $4.07 slipped marginally through the prior monthly low at $4.09 and landed right on the 50-day moving average plus a rising channel boundary that has repeatedly acted as both resistance and support in recent months. This $4.07–$4.09 zone is the first serious “must-hold” area for bulls; a strong bounce from here would match the usual behaviour when price retests a reclaimed 50-day in an ongoing up-leg. Beneath that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July–December move sits around $3.89, a softer level with weaker confluence that looks more like a staging area than a structural floor. Deeper down, the 200-day moving average near $3.58 remains the real downside objective if selling accelerates. On the higher timeframe, Natural Gas (NG=F) has been in a monthly uptrend since the July low around $2.62, with three straight months of higher highs and higher lows culminating in a December peak near $5.50. A decisive weekly or monthly close below $4.09 would confirm a one-month bearish reversal pattern and signal that the prior impulse leg has transitioned into a broader corrective phase rather than a simple dip to trend support.

Weather Models, Storage Path And LNG Headlines As Near-Term Drivers For NG=F

Into the week of December 15–19, the market is trading primarily on three moving parts: weather outlook, upcoming storage data and LNG plant behaviour. Current model runs project notably mild conditions across key demand regions through late December, which is why long liquidation has been relentless and why NG=F is now testing the $4.07 area. If those forecasts remain stable or shift even warmer, downside pressure persists and a test of $3.89 becomes increasingly likely. The next EIA storage update, scheduled for December 18, will show whether the 177 Bcf withdrawal was a one-off or the start of a sequence of oversized draws. Another large draw only supports price if the weather picture stops deteriorating; otherwise, the narrative stays focused on inventories still sitting a few percent above the five-year average and on weakening heating demand. LNG feedgas flows are the key risk lever. Any outage or extended curtailment at a major export facility would briefly loosen domestic balances and reinforce the bearish tape. Conversely, consistent high utilization and any incremental export capacity or Europe/Asia price firming would tighten balances again and strengthen the case for a rebound from current levels.

Physical Market, Basis Curves And Pipeline Constraints Around Natural Gas (NG=F)

Physical pricing and regional basis moves are adding noise around the futures decline but do not change the core picture yet. Northeast hubs such as Transco Zone 6 New York remain elevated, printing around $10.21 per mmBtu, while Texas Eastern M-3 trades near $6.34 and hubs like El Paso Keystone Pool hover close to $5.80. Forward basis curves across Appalachia, Permian and other regions show persistent negative differentials for future months, reflecting expectations for ongoing takeaway constraints and locally abundant supply even if the national benchmark tightens later in the season. Pipeline operators have already issued operational flow orders and cold-weather notices across northern and eastern corridors during the brief Arctic push, forcing tighter balancing but only delivering short-lived support to cash prices. As soon as forecasts reverted to milder conditions, Natural Gas (NG=F) futures slipped back into their weather-dominated downward grind despite East and Midwest storage levels sliding below some historical benchmarks.

Natural Gas (NG=F) Outlook And Trading Bias Into Late December

Taken together, Natural Gas (NG=F) trades in a structurally tighter global environment than last winter, but near-term price action is still dictated by weather and the clearing of excessive long exposure. With futures holding around $4.11 and sitting directly on the $4.07–$4.09 support cluster, the market is positioned for either a sharp relief rally or a clean technical breakdown. A bounce from this zone could lift price back toward roughly $4.40–$4.80 as shorts cover and tactical buyers step in around the 50-day average and prior low. However, as long as forecasts advertise above-normal temperatures and U.S. production stays in the 110–112 Bcf per day range, every move into that mid-$4 band remains vulnerable to renewed selling. A decisive break and sustained trade below $4.07 would shift focus to $3.89 and then the 200-day near $3.58, where the medium-term risk-reward finally becomes compelling for structural long exposure. Based strictly on the current combination of warm model guidance, robust supply, adequate but not excessive storage, and key technical support under pressure, the stance on Natural Gas (NG=F) is tactically bearish with a Sell bias on strength toward the mid-$4s and a more neutral Hold bias for investors waiting to accumulate closer to the $3.60–$3.90 band, where structural demand and long-term LNG dynamics should start to dominate over short-term weather noise.

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