Natural Gas Futures Price Forecast: NG=F Tests $3.24 as Tight Storage Clashes With Mild Weather

Natural Gas Futures Price (NG=F) – March contract bleeds 5% to $3.24 into Presidents’ Day week

U.S. Natural Gas Futures Price (NG=F) closed the week near $3.243 per mmBtu, up about 0.8% on Friday but still down roughly 5% over the week. The March front-month now trades in the low-$3 range with expiry on February 25, after failing to extend January’s spike and giving back ground despite a fundamentally tight storage picture.

Natural Gas Futures Price – Short-term tape, holiday liquidity and Waha’s warning signal

Price action into the long weekend shows a weak bounce, not a trend change. Friday’s uptick trimmed losses but left Natural Gas Futures Price (NG=F) decisively lower on the week, with sellers still in control on any push above roughly $3.35–$3.40. With U.S. markets closed for Presidents’ Day and NYMEX gas rolling almost nonstop, the next session opening Sunday night often comes with gaps. Thin holiday liquidity tends to exaggerate moves driven by weather models or LNG headlines, so a jump above the mid-$3s would likely be short-covering, while a slide back toward $3.00 would confirm that last week’s selling pressure remains intact. The physical market is flashing a different story in West Texas. Waha Hub spot prices have printed below zero for six straight sessions, showing just how severe pipeline bottlenecks are in the Permian. Local producers are dumping gas into a constrained system and occasionally paying buyers to take it, even as Henry Hub holds around $3.15 per mmBtu. That disconnect underlines the structural risk: futures reflect national balance, but regional constraints can still create extreme local pricing.

Natural Gas Futures Price – Storage, Henry Hub cash and the real balance under the surface

Behind the weak weekly tape sits a storage profile that is tight, not loose. Working gas in storage stands near 2,214 bcf after a heavy 249 bcf withdrawal, leaving inventories around 130 bcf below the five-year average, roughly 5.5% under normal seasonal levels. That means the system is not swimming in excess supply even after a mild start to February. Henry Hub spot near $3.15 per mmBtu tracks that reality: cash trades only slightly under front-month futures, which signals a market that is reasonably balanced short-term with no obvious glut. For industrials, power generators and LNG buyers, this price band keeps gas competitive versus coal and oil in most regions while staying high enough to support drilling economics outside the most constrained basins. The forward curve still prices Henry Hub averages above current spot as the decade progresses, with long-term projections north of $4 per mmBtu, so the current $3.2–$3.3 zone is a discount to where policy, demand growth and export capacity are pointing over the medium term.

Natural Gas Futures Price – LNG exports near record while global LNG policy swings add another layer

Export demand remains the main structural support for Natural Gas Futures Price (NG=F). Flows to the eight major U.S. LNG terminals are running near 18.5 bcfd so far in February, matching the record levels seen in December. That keeps a constant bid under U.S. gas even while domestic heating demand eases. At the same time, policy debates abroad are shaping the long-run LNG demand curve. In New Zealand, the government is pushing ahead with a liquefied natural gas import terminal plan framed as insurance for dry-year hydro and price spikes, while the Green Building Council argues that billions would be better spent on rooftop solar and hot-water heat pumps. Their analysis points to roughly NZ$6 billion in potential household savings over 15 years if the country leans into distributed renewables instead of locking into imported LNG. That kind of policy split matters for U.S. gas because it defines whether future demand is anchored by long-term LNG contracts or gradually capped by aggressive electrification and efficiency programs. For now, high export flows and signed offtake deals keep the export story supportive, but every new LNG terminal approval or cancellation shifts the ceiling and floor for the futures strip.

Natural Gas Futures Price – Gasoline, diesel and what pump prices say about demand for hydrocarbons

Retail fuel numbers across the Midwest and Iowa show a sector that is cooling, not collapsing. In Iowa, regular unleaded gasoline just rose 4 cents on the week to about $2.54 per gallon, still roughly 42 cents below the same week last year. Diesel in the state sits around $3.45 per gallon, close to where it was a year ago at $3.48 and about 22 cents under the current national diesel average near $3.67. The broader Midwest region averages about $2.69 per gallon for regular, up around 8 cents from last month but roughly 10% lower than a year ago when prices sat near $2.98. Nationwide, regular gasoline hovers near $2.90 per gallon compared with roughly $3.13 a year earlier, a drop of about 7.3%. That pattern tells you two things for Natural Gas Futures Price. First, consumers are getting measurable relief at the pump, which eases political pressure around energy costs. Second, demand has not collapsed; it has normalized at more sustainable levels. Stable gasoline and diesel consumption support steady refinery activity and associated gas demand, even as prices edge lower than last year’s levels.

Natural Gas Futures Price – CPI breakdown: lower gas and heating fuel costs, but utility gas stays painful

January CPI confirmed that energy is no longer the main inflation villain, but the picture is uneven. Headline inflation is running about 2.4% year on year, with core near 2.5%. Energy as a category is down roughly 0.1% over the year, but the composition matters for Natural Gas Futures Price (NG=F). The gasoline index fell about 3.2% in January and is down around 7.5% year on year, aligned with the drop from roughly $3.13 to $2.90 per gallon nationally. Fuel oil prices slid 5.7% in January and are more than 4% lower than a year ago. Propane, kerosene and firewood costs collectively dropped about 1.5% in the month and sit nearly 7.9% below last year. Those declines give households tangible relief on mobile and off-grid energy. The hit shows up elsewhere. Electricity prices are roughly flat month on month but about 6.3% higher than a year ago, and utility piped gas service jumped 1% in January and sits nearly 9.8% above last year. So homeowners heating with network natural gas are still paying significantly more even while headline gas and oil prices print lower. For futures traders, this is a warning: high utility bills can accelerate efficiency upgrades and electrification in buildings, dampening long-term demand growth for residential gas even if power-sector and industrial demand stay firm.

Natural Gas Futures Price – Henry Hub cash, heating fuels and how they shape consumer behavior

On the heating side, the Henry Hub spot move matters alongside retail metrics. Cash Natural Gas Futures Price at Henry Hub is around $3.15 per mmBtu after dropping roughly 32 cents at the Henry Hub reporting site over the week. At the same time, Iowa propane averages about $1.63 per gallon and home heating oil around $2.94 per gallon. That spread keeps natural gas the cheapest large-scale heating option for most grid-connected households, even with utility delivery charges outpacing headline commodity prices. As long as gas maintains a clear cost edge against heating oil and propane, switching away purely on price is unlikely. The bigger driver of substitution will be policy incentives and upfront subsidies for heat pumps and insulation, not pure fuel prices. For traders, this means residential load is sticky in the short to medium term; the more elastic components of demand are power generation and industrial usage that can flex between gas, coal, oil and renewables based on relative pricing and regulatory pressure.

Natural Gas Futures Price – Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (NSE:ONGC) and what its earnings say about upstream value

Equity markets are echoing the same “good but not spectacular” story that Natural Gas Futures Price (NG=F) is sending. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (NSE:ONGC), a major upstream player, just reported a quarter with statutory revenue around ₹1.7 trillion, roughly 76% above analyst expectations, and earnings per share near ₹7.96, about 23% ahead of consensus. Analysts now see revenues in 2027 at about ₹6.52 trillion, broadly flat versus the last 12 months, with EPS projected around ₹35.64, roughly 18% growth from current levels. The consensus price target sits near ₹281, with a range from ₹200 to ₹330, indicating modest upside but no aggressive re-rating. Importantly, that revenue profile implies a small annual contraction of about 0.5%, compared with roughly 5.7% annual growth expected for the broader industry. The message for gas traders is clear: equity analysts are rewarding cash generation and dividends, not promising accelerating volume growth. Upstream names like ONGC are priced for disciplined capex and stable to slightly lower production against a backdrop of moderate Natural Gas Futures Price and oil prices, not a new volume boom. When producers are not racing to flood the market with supply, it supports a gas futures floor in the $3–$4 band rather than the sub-$2 pricing seen in past gluts.

Natural Gas Futures Price – Trading stance, key levels and risk skew: Hold with a tactical range bias

Pulling the strands together, Natural Gas Futures Price (NG=F) sits in a narrow zone where the fundamental floor and technical ceiling are both visible. Storage is 130 bcf below the five-year average with a recent 249 bcf weekly draw, Henry Hub cash trades around $3.15 per mmBtu, LNG exports run near a record 18.5 bcfd, and Waha Hub’s sixth straight day of negative prices highlights persistent regional constraints rather than a national glut. Retail gasoline near $2.90 per gallon nationally and diesel around $3.67, coupled with CPI data showing gasoline down 7.5% year on year but utility gas up nearly 10%, confirm that the broader energy complex has cooled without collapsing. Against that backdrop, a $3.00–$3.60 trading band for Natural Gas Futures Price is rational. Below roughly $3.00, the combination of tight storage and strong LNG demand becomes hard to justify on valuation, especially if late-February weather turns colder. Above the mid-$3s, mild temperatures, pipeline bottlenecks in the Permian and policy headwinds from global LNG debates start to cap enthusiasm. On balance the setup argues for a Hold stance with a slight bullish bias toward late-winter weather or LNG-driven spikes, rather than a high-conviction trend call. Bears get paid only if mild weather lingers into March and LNG flows stumble; bulls need a colder shift, stronger power demand or new export momentum to punch through resistance.

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