Oil Price Forecast: Trapped in a $60–70 Range as WTI Defends $61 and Brent Slips Below $70

Oil Price Forecast – WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F pinned in a fragile $60–70 corridor

WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F – current pricing, spreads and why the tape feels “stuck”

Front-month WTI CL=F trades around $63.5–$63.6 per barrel, up roughly 1.1% on the day after a $0.67 rebound from levels near $62.9. Benchmark Brent BZ=F changes hands close to $68.4, gaining just under 1.0% with a $0.66 daily rise. The WTI–Brent spread sits near $4.8–$5.0, squarely in the middle of its recent range and consistent with a market that is not yet pricing an extreme disruption in seaborne flows. Other grades flesh out the picture: Murban around $68.8, Louisiana Light near $64.6 after a $0.82 drop, Bonny Light down to $78.6 after losing $2.3, the OPEC reference basket near $66.6 after a $1.44 slide, and Mars US close to $69.8 with a $0.88 decline. At the same time, US gasoline futures hold near $1.92 per gallon with only a 0.31% uptick, while US natural gas near $3.02 has dropped almost 6.8%, underlining how crude is consolidating as other parts of the energy complex reset more sharply.

Short-term range for WTI CL=F around $62–65 with compressed moving averages

On the daily chart, WTI CL=F has settled into a tight band after failing to hold the push into the mid-$60s. Spot trades around $62.8–$63.6 while a cluster of key moving averages converges on the same zone: a 50-day EMA near $62.7, a 100-day EMA close to $61.2, a 200-day EMA around $62.6 and a longer 200-day simple average just above $61.0. That stack of averages between roughly $61 and $63 is acting as a magnet. Price is hovering just above a parabolic stop level near $61.4 and the support shelf in the $61–$62 range that marked the breakout from the prior downtrend. Two consecutive weekly declines have already washed out some of the speculative length, but the tape has not cracked; instead, WTI is oscillating between about $62 on the downside and $64–$65 on the upside, a textbook equilibrium zone before a larger move.

Brent BZ=F tracking a $65–70 band while Murban and Mars flag regional premiums

Brent BZ=F is behaving like a higher-beta echo of WTI, but within a slightly wider band. With front month around $68.4, price trades between a $65 floor and a $70 ceiling, repeatedly failing to extend beyond $70 even when geopolitical headlines flash across the tape. Murban at $68.8 and Mars US near $69.8 show Middle East and US offshore barrels pricing with only modest premia to Brent, not the blowout spreads that would signal an imminent supply shock. Bonny Light at $78.6 still commands a clear quality premium but has dropped more than 2.8% on the day, mirroring the softening in the OPEC basket at $66.6. The structure across benchmarks points to a market that recognises regional risk but is constrained by the overarching narrative of comfortable supply.

IEA 2026 surplus call, OPEC+ April supply debate and what they imply for CL=F

The underlying fundamental story for WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F remains dominated by expectations of oversupply into 2026. The IEA has recently cut its oil demand growth outlook for 2026 and projected a meaningful surplus, effectively capping rallies every time prices approach the upper edge of their current ranges. At the same time, discussions inside the producer alliance are edging toward loosening the taps again. Some OPEC+ members are already floating the idea of reviving production hikes from April, subject to final negotiations before the early-March policy meeting. This combination—slower demand growth and the possibility of more barrels from April—helps explain why the market sold off from the $66–$67 WTI area and now struggles to build a sustained bid above $64–$65. Inventories and agency projections are telling traders that any geopolitical spike will probably meet a wave of forward hedging and supply.

US–Iran nuclear talks, military risk and why the geopolitical premium is capped

Against that surplus backdrop, the CL=F tape is being whipped around by US–Iran headlines without yet breaking out. Negotiations are moving into a second round in Geneva, with Washington signalling it is prepared for prolonged operations should diplomacy fail and Tehran hinting at conditional willingness to compromise. On top of that, drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure in the Black Sea and sanctions-related enforcement actions on Venezuelan flows keep reminding the market that supply lines are fragile. Under normal circumstances this kind of risk would justify a stronger geopolitical premium in WTI and Brent, especially with refinery assets and shipping routes potentially in play. Instead, price behaviour says traders are fading those spikes: WTI rallies from the low-$60s toward $66–$67 have been sold into, and Brent has repeatedly reversed near $70. The market is effectively discounting the risk by assuming that slower demand and latent spare capacity will absorb disruptions unless a single, large exporter goes offline.

Angola’s 500-million-barrel Algaita-01 discovery and the infrastructure-led supply pipeline

While front-month CL=F trades inside a narrow band, the longer-term supply story is being reshaped by new offshore finds that are cheap to monetise. Off Angola’s coast, operators have logged an estimated 500 million barrels of oil in place at the Algaita-01 well in Block 15/06, drilled in about 667 metres of water and only 18 kilometres from an existing FPSO hub. The reservoir sits in multiple Upper Miocene sandstone intervals with strong petrophysical signatures and was confirmed through logging and fluid sampling. The equity is split roughly 36.84% for the operator, 36.84% for the state-backed producer and 26.32% for a private partner, all under a joint-venture structure that already runs other FPSOs in the area. Because Algaita-01 can likely be tied back to the existing unit, capex per barrel is expected to be far lower than for a greenfield deep-water development. That is exactly the kind of infrastructure-led supply that can come to market quickly and profitably near $60–$70 Brent BZ=F, reinforcing the idea of a “cap” on long-term prices unless demand growth surprises to the upside.

Microstructure: how $61–62 on WTI CL=F became the line between pullback and breakdown

The intraday structure around WTI CL=F is defined by one level: the $61–$62 zone. A widely watched support around $62.35 has contained every test lower in recent sessions, with buyers repeatedly stepping in to defend that level. On shorter-term charts the market has broken an earlier upward trendline and is now chopping sideways around that support. Sellers are leaning against a resistance band near $63.3, where a descending intraday trendline converges with minor horizontal resistance. This creates a very tight, mean-reverting range: sell flows appear as price approaches $63–$63.5; dip-buyers re-emerge near $62.0–$62.4. A decisive close below roughly $61–$61.4, where the parabolic system flips and the long-term moving averages begin to roll over, would signal a shift from a corrective pullback into a more structural down-leg targeting $58–$60. Until that happens, the tape is signalling consolidation rather than a crash.

Seasonal demand, gasoline futures and the attempt to carve out a summer corridor

The calendar is another reason CL=F refuses to break down despite oversupply talk. Futures are already trading the April contract, which effectively discounts the start of the US driving season. Historically, gasoline demand ramps from spring into summer, and refiners start securing crude well ahead of that window. Gasoline futures near $1.92 per gallon, up modestly on the day, hint that the market is already thinking about seasonal strength even as crude oscillates near the low-$60s. From December lows around $55 per barrel, WTI rallied into the $66–$67 area before giving back part of the move. That path—sharp rebound, rejection near resistance, then sideways drift around $62–$63—is consistent with a market that is trying to define a summer trading corridor rather than plunge back to the lows. If demand and crack spreads tighten as the driving season approaches, that corridor likely centres on something like $62–$68 for WTI and $65–$72 for Brent, assuming no major shock.

What the cross-asset tape says: macro calendar, thin liquidity and refined products

Liquidity conditions matter for how WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F trade these levels. US markets are in holiday mode for Presidents Day, which naturally depresses volume and makes every move look less convincing. Major catalysts cluster later in the week: central-bank minutes, jobless claims, manufacturing surveys, fourth-quarter US GDP updates and core inflation gauges. On top of that sits a potential Supreme Court decision on trade measures and tariff policy that could alter the growth and demand outlook. Traders know that any one of these releases can nudge the dollar and global risk appetite, which feeds back into oil through positioning and hedging flows. Refined product cracks and natural-gas pricing also send mixed signals. Gas near $3.02 with a near-7% daily drop says the market is comfortable with current supply for heating and power, while crude holds a bid thanks to seasonal gasoline demand and geopolitical noise. Altogether, cross-asset signals justify the current “wait and see” behaviour rather than an aggressive trend.

Trading stance on WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F – bias, levels and whether this is buy, sell or hold

There is no insider-transaction tape for CL=F and BZ=F as there is for equities, so the closest equivalent is positioning around obvious levels and how large players treat support and resistance. Right now, the behaviour is clear: sell-side interest keeps re-appearing near $64–$65 on WTI CL=F and around $70 on Brent BZ=F, while real money and systematic bids are defending the $61–$62 area on WTI and the mid-$60s on Brent. That pattern, combined with IEA surplus projections, talk of possible OPEC+ hikes from April, the Angola discovery’s long-term supply signal and the heavy macro calendar, supports a tactical strategy of fading strength rather than chasing upside. Based purely on the data, the stance is short-term bearish within the range and structurally neutral, which translates into a Sell on strength / Hold overall verdict: use rallies into $64–$65 WTI and $70 Brent to reduce exposure or hedge, respect $61 on WTI and the low-$60s on any extension lower as key decision points, and only upgrade the view to bullish once price can sustain closes above $65 on CL=F and above $70 on BZ=F with evidence that demand and policy are tightening the balance rather than loosening it.

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