Oil Price Forecast: Will WTI Stay Near $64 as EU Sanctions and India’s Pivot Hit Russian Crude?

Oil market reset: WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F trade in the mid-60s as the war premium bleeds out

Short-term tape: WTI CL=F around $64 and Brent BZ=F just under $69 after a fast swing lower

The front of the curve has repriced hard. U.S. West Texas Intermediate CL=F trades roughly at $64–$65 a barrel, with the last print near $64.13, up $0.58 on the day, a gain of about 0.9%. Brent BZ=F sits close to $68.70, up roughly $0.67 or 1% after an earlier move down to $68.60, a 1.2% drop from the prior session’s close. The pattern is clear: every escalation headline that pushed crude higher in previous weeks is now being discounted aggressively, and the market is testing how much of the geopolitical premium can be removed without breaking the physical balance.

The adjustment is not confined to paper benchmarks. Louisiana Light trades near $65.94, jumping almost $3 (+4.8%) on the day, the OPEC basket hovers around $66.65, and differentials are shifting as Atlantic Basin and Middle Eastern flows are re-routed. Prices in the mid-60s do not signal a demand collapse; they show a market systematically marking down extreme scenarios that were priced when war risk dominated every decision.

Geopolitics: US-Iran talks cut the top off the range but leave a floor under Oil and WTI CL=F

The single biggest release valve on the risk premium is the renewed diplomatic channel between Washington and Tehran. Fresh talks in Muscat, Oman, focused on Iran’s nuclear program, have reduced the immediate probability of supply disruptions from the Gulf. Brent at $68.60 and WTI CL=F at $64.32 during the latest down-leg reflect that repricing: about 1.2% lower for Brent and 1.3% for WTI when the Meyka snapshot was taken.

For a market that had been pricing a much higher chance of shipping incidents, pipeline attacks, or outright embargo scenarios, this détente matters. It pushes the near-term distribution away from shock outages and toward a managed, noisy status quo where flows keep moving. That naturally compresses the war premium, caps rallies, and encourages short-dated selling into spikes.

However, the same headlines that eased the market can reverse in one session. Negotiations remain fragile, agendas are contested, and there is no structural agreement on the table yet. That is why dips are not cascading into a crash toward $50; geopolitical optionality remains priced into the curve, just at a lower level. Any breakdown in talks pushes BZ=F and CL=F back up quickly because the current level assumes a continued path of at least partial cooperation.

Fundamentals: U.S. stock draws and distillate tightness quietly support the Oil complex

Despite weaker flat prices, the physical backdrop inside the United States is not bearish. Crude inventories dropped by 3.5 million barrels to 420.3 million, leaving stockpiles about 4% below the five-year seasonal average. That is not a glut; it is a market where supply and demand are still finely balanced, with a modest structural undersupply.

The products side is even more constructive. Gasoline stocks ticked higher only marginally, while distillate inventories fell by a sharp 5.6 million barrels. Middle distillates drive freight, industry, and heavy transport, so a draw of that size signals resilient underlying activity and limited spare cushion in the system.

This combination—lower crude stocks, tight distillates, and only modest gasoline build—naturally limits how far WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F can fall before physical buying re-emerges. Commercial hedgers will use $64 WTI and sub-$69 Brent to extend coverage, and that flow appears every time the market trades down into this band. The tape looks weak because macro and politics dominated the headlines, but the barrel-by-barrel balance is not signaling a deep surplus.

Flows: India pivots away from Russian barrels and leans harder into Middle East and West Africa crude

The demand side of the equation is being reshuffled rather than destroyed. India’s largest state-owned refiner, Indian Oil Corporation, has shifted aggressively away from Russian cargoes in the near term and is replacing them with Middle Eastern and West African grades.

Indian Oil has taken around six million barrels from Nigeria, Angola, and the UAE via recent tenders for April delivery. That includes Pazflor from Angola and Agbami from Nigeria through TotalEnergies’ trading arm, Bonny Light and Akpo from Nigeria via Shell, and two million barrels of Upper Zakum from the UAE purchased from Mercuria. At the same time, Indian refiners are largely ignoring offers for Russian crude for March and April, reflecting the constraints embedded in the latest trade deal with the United States.

The barrels that India is not taking are now circling East Asia. Tankers carrying up to roughly twelve million barrels of Russian crude sit en route to, or near, China’s coast, waiting for buyers. Sellers are widening discounts versus Brent to keep volumes moving, because India—once the key outlet—has stepped back and is waiting for policy clarity.

The consequence for Brent BZ=F and WTI CL=F is nuanced. On the one hand, discounted Russian barrels into China cap upside on a global basis. On the other hand, the Middle East and West African grades diverted into India tighten availability in other Atlantic Basin markets, including Europe and the Americas, supporting regional differentials and quietly reinforcing the floor under core benchmarks.

Sanctions pivot: from a Russian oil price cap to a full maritime-services ban reshapes shipping risk

The European Union is preparing a structural change that matters far more than a one-day price swing. The proposed 20th sanctions package would scrap the G7 price-cap architecture and replace it with a full ban on maritime services for tankers carrying Russian crude, regardless of the price at which the cargo trades.

Under the old framework, European companies could insure, finance, and service tankers carrying Russian oil as long as the sale price stayed below a cap (recently adjusted to around $44.10 per barrel). If the price exceeded that level, the vessels lost access to Western insurance and banking, which pushed Moscow to build a shadow fleet under opaque ownership structures.

The new approach is much simpler and far more aggressive. If approved, European firms will be barred from providing insurance, shipping, port services, maintenance, or repairs to any tanker moving Russian crude. The Commission also wants to blacklist dozens more ships, bringing the targeted shadow fleet to roughly 640 vessels, and extend bans to LNG tankers and icebreakers.

For the oil market, this is a direct attack on logistics rather than on a nominal price. A full maritime-services ban raises operating risk, increases freight and insurance costs, and complicates Russia’s ability to redirect barrels. That in turn supports BZ=F and CL=F over the medium term, because Russian flows become more fragile and more expensive to maintain, even if outright volumes do not collapse immediately.

Russia’s fiscal squeeze and shadow fleet show why the EU is willing to push Oil sanctions harder

Brussels is not shifting strategy in a vacuum. Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell about 24% in 2025 relative to the prior year, reaching their lowest level since 2020. At the same time, policy rates sit near 16% and inflation remains elevated. The Kremlin is under pressure: lower energy income, a stronger rouble than desired, and rising war expenditure are all eating into its fiscal room.

The existing price cap eroded Russia’s margins but did not fundamentally stop export flows, especially once the shadow fleet scaled up and enforcement proved patchy. That fleet now carries the majority of Russian crude exports. Documentation games, opaque ownership and flag-of-convenience vessels allowed Moscow to arbitrage the rules and continue selling close to market prices to buyers willing to ignore the cap.

The move toward a clean, blanket services ban is an acknowledgement that the two-tier system has run its course. For the oil complex, the big question is how effectively EU states and G7 partners can enforce this next step. If enforcement is serious and secondary sanctions back it up, Russian barrels will face higher costs and more routing friction, tightening the effective supply picture for Oil, WTI CL=F, and Brent BZ=F even if headline export volumes appear resilient.

Global trade lines: Russian crude pushed toward China while Atlantic Basin benchmarks re-anchor the complex

With India pulling back from Russian barrels and Europe moving toward a maritime clampdown, China becomes the main safety valve for Moscow’s exports. That concentrates risk. More Russian crude channeled into one dominant buyer increases China’s leverage over price and terms, which is why discounts to Brent are now widening to entice Chinese refiners.

For the broader market, that means the Brent complex and its associated physical grades (North Sea, West Africa, Middle East anchored to Dubai/Brent differentials) will increasingly set the marginal price signal. WTI CL=F, trading near $64, continues to trade as the key reference for U.S. supply, but its relationship with BZ=F will be influenced by how aggressively Russian crude is discounted into Asia and how quickly EU shipping sanctions bite.

At the same time, U.S. export-linked benchmarks such as WTI Midland are seeing record activity, with around 1.9 million lots traded in January. That reflects companies hedging exposure as trade flows adjust to Venezuela’s partial return, Russian redirection, and shifting Asian demand. The volume confirms that volatility is not going away; it is relocating from pure flat price moves to spreads, differentials, and freight.

Macro and policy focus: at $64–$69, Oil is hypersensitive to U.S. data, OPEC+ and agency outlooks

With near-term supply fears dialed down by US-Iran talks and Russian barrels still flowing, attention narrows to the usual triad: U.S. macro data, OPEC+ signals, and IEA/EIA demand outlooks. At the current band of roughly $64 for WTI CL=F and $68–$69 for Brent BZ=F, the complex is priced for moderate global growth, no major supply shock, and a gradual normalization of inventories.

Stronger-than-expected U.S. activity data or an upside surprise in global demand forecasts will push desks to reassess how comfortable they are with crude stocks 4% below normal and distillates drawing. Any hint that OPEC+ intends to defend a higher floor through voluntary cuts or stricter quota discipline would add another layer of support, especially if Russian exports become more constrained by shipping sanctions.

On the downside, weaker growth data or an extended easing of financial conditions that encourages risk-off across commodities could easily knock a few dollars off the tape. But the level of inventories, the structure of sanctions, and the repositioning of flows make a sustained break far below $60 for CL=F harder to justify unless demand genuinely rolls over.

Bias and positioning: Oil, WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F — Buy, Sell or Hold at mid-60s crude?

Putting all of this together, the picture is not one of a market about to collapse; it is a market that has aggressively repriced risk while fundamentals quietly tighten.

Prices: WTI CL=F around $64.13 and Brent BZ=F near $68.72 reflect a roughly 1–1.5% daily move, but they sit on top of a crude stockpile that is 3.5 million barrels lighter week-on-week and 4% below the five-year norm. Distillates are down 5.6 million barrels, a clear signal that end-use demand remains solid.

Flows: India is stepping away from Russian barrels and locking in six million barrels from Nigeria, Angola, and the UAE for April, while up to twelve million barrels of Russian crude idle near China searching for buyers. Discounts to Brent are widening to keep those barrels moving, but the structural effect is to concentrate Russian exports into a smaller customer base while tightening availability of key Atlantic grades.

Policy: The EU’s shift from a price cap to a full maritime-services ban raises medium-term risk on Russian logistics. The existing shadow fleet already faces tighter scrutiny, with roughly 640 ships listed, and any meaningful enforcement of the new package will add cost, complexity, and delay to Russian flows just as fiscal revenues have fallen 24% and domestic financial conditions tighten with rates near 16%.

Geopolitics: US-Iran talks have taken some of the war premium off the top, but tensions remain unresolved and can swing sentiment on any setback. That keeps a residual option value embedded in the barrels, limiting how cheap crude can get while conflicts and sanctions remain live.

On that basis, the current zone looks more like a reset than a ceiling. From these levels, the balance of probabilities favors a moderately bullish bias over a multi-month horizon. The downside into the low 60s for WTI CL=F exists if diplomacy keeps improving and macro data softens, but the combination of inventory draws, distillate tightness, sanctions escalation, and redirected trade lines argues that rebounds into the low-to-mid 70s for both Oil and Brent BZ=F are more likely once the market digests the policy shifts.

Verdict: from a pure crude perspective, the setup at roughly $64 WTI CL=F and $69 Brent BZ=F supports a controlled “Buy on weakness” stance rather than an outright Sell. The market has flushed out part of the war premium, but structural constraints on Russian supply, tightening Atlantic Basin balances, and firm product demand argue against treating current prices as a durable top.