Oil Price Forecast: WTI and Brent Surge as U.S–Iran Tensions Drive Oil Back Above $66 and $71

Oil price snapshot – WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F turn back into a war-risk trade

WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F – from mid-$60s and low-$70s into a full geopolitical repricing

WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F – current pricing and intraday behavior

WTI Crude (CL=F) is orbiting $66–$66.5, up roughly 2% on the session after a previous daily jump of about 4%, lifting the contract from the $62–$63 area straight into the upper part of the recent range. Brent (BZ=F) is trading around $71–$71.6, advancing about 1–1.7% and printing the strongest levels in roughly six months, well above the late-January mid-$60s band. Price action is not a slow grind; it is a sharp repricing where every new headline around Iran and the U.S. immediately shows up in ticks on CL=F and BZ=F, with dips being bought as long as the tape holds above $62 in WTI and $70 in Brent.

Geopolitics, U.S.–Iran risk and the Strait of Hormuz premium

Oil is reacting to a very specific set of threats, not vague “tensions.” Reports suggest U.S. forces could launch strikes against Iran with odds described as extremely high and timing discussed as soon as this weekend, while the U.S. has assembled its largest air power in the Middle East since 2003 and moved additional warships into the region. On the other side, Tehran has already shut parts of the Strait of Hormuz for several hours and announced rocket launches across the south of the country within a 10-hour window. Roughly 20% of global crude flows, more than 20 million barrels per day, pass through this chokepoint; any serious disruption would instantly stress physical balances. That is why Brent BZ=F above $71 and WTI CL=F above $66 clearly carry a conflict premium, even though actual flows have not yet been severely interrupted.

From oversupply narrative to a tighter physical picture

Only weeks ago, the dominant message was oversupply into 2026, but the curve and fundamentals are telling a different story now. The ICE Brent forward curve has shifted into stronger backwardation, signaling that nearby barrels are scarcer than deferred ones and that refiners are willing to pay up for prompt cargoes. Buyers are still shunning large volumes of sanctioned crude from Russia and Iran, which tightens usable supply even when headline production looks ample on paper. At the same time, U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week against expectations for a +2.1 million barrel crude build, undercutting the comfortable-stock argument just as BZ=F crossed $70. Add record-setting crude import plans in Asia, with China lifting Russian inflows while India trims, and the idea of a deeply oversupplied market starts to look outdated at current prices.

Macro calendar, tariffs and Geneva talks – why Oil is trading both war and growth

The tape is not trading Middle East headlines in isolation. Nuclear talks in Geneva produced “a little bit of progress” but left Washington and Tehran “very far apart” on core enrichment issues, while Iran was given roughly two weeks to respond with a detailed proposal, echoing a previous episode where a similar window was followed within days by Operation Midnight Hammer. On top of that, markets are bracing for a potential U.S. Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs; a ruling against the tariffs would be read as pro-growth and implicitly bullish for fuel demand, amplifying any upside in CL=F and BZ=F. The data run is heavy: fresh Jobless Claims, U.S. Q4 GDP, the PCE inflation gauge and flash PMIs all hit while crude is probing resistance, so each print can either reinforce the rally by supporting growth expectations or trigger position-cutting if recession fears re-emerge.

WTI CL=F – long-term structure from $55 support to $71 resistance

On the bigger picture for WTI CL=F, the current leg started from a long-term floor around $55 in early January 2026, where buyers repeatedly defended value. The contract reclaimed the 200-day moving average near $62, transforming it from resistance into the main tactical pivot. The advance has now carried price into a multi-month resistance band between roughly $66 and $71, defined by prior swing highs and a downward sloping trend line that has capped every rally since late last year. As long as $62 holds on closing basis, the structure favours a continued push toward $69–$71, with extended targets in the $77–$80 zone if geopolitical risk actually translates into physical disruption and macro data hold up. A decisive break back below $62 would flip the picture and open room down to $58 and then the key $55 support that anchors the entire advance.

WTI CL=F – daily, 4-hour and 1-hour ranges that matter for timing

On the daily chart, CL=F has been trading inside a clear corridor between support around $62.35 and resistance near $66.43, with the current spike testing the upper edge of that corridor. A sustained daily close above $66–$67 would be the first genuine breakout from that range since January and would validate extensions toward $69–$71 in the short term. The 4-hour view shows repeated swings between $62.35 and $66.43, where each dip toward the low $63s attracts buyers who fade negative headlines, while sellers consistently show up above $66 attempting to defend the ceiling. The 1-hour chart compresses this into a high-energy box: traders use the $62–$63 area as a line in the sand for downside risk and the $66 zone as a decision point, with a clean break above that level likely pulling price into the $70.5–$71 neighbourhood that larger timeframes are already flagging.

Brent BZ=F – medium-term roadmap from $70 pivot to $72–$74 breakout and $85 target

For Brent BZ=F, the structure is even more constructive. On the weekly chart, Brent has broken above its 50-week moving average, flipping the trend bias from sideways to cautiously bullish. A descending trend line from previous highs and the top of a broad consolidation converge around $72–$74, creating a clean breakout band; that zone is now the major line separating a capped rally from a sustained bull leg. A weekly close above $72–$74 would unlock upside toward the $85 region that several technical projections cluster around, especially if the move is backed by firm backwardation and continuing inventory draws. If BZ=F fails at $72–$74 and falls back under $70, the market is likely to remain stuck in a choppy, headline-driven range where every diplomatic headline can delete $3–$5 per barrel in a single session.

Brent BZ=F – daily confirmation from wedge resistance and momentum signals

The daily chart for BZ=F shows price pushing directly into resistance near $70, defined by the upper boundary of a descending broadening wedge pattern that has contained trade for months. Within that pattern, the $72–$74 zone marks the real breakout trigger: moving and holding above that region would confirm that supply concerns and geopolitics are strong enough to overpower all prior selling pressure, with price then having a relatively clear path toward $80–$85. Momentum supports the move; daily RSI has recovered from mid-range and is now grinding higher rather than mean-reverting, which fits with an emerging trend leg instead of yet another dead-cat bounce. As long as BZ=F trades above $70 on pullbacks and continues to attract demand on tests of that level, the bias stays skewed toward an eventual break of $72–$74 rather than a clean rejection.

Energy equities – XOM, CVX and OXY as confirmation of the futures signal

The futures move is already visible across major energy stocks. Exxon Mobil (XOM) is trading roughly +1.1% higher, Chevron (CVX) is up around +0.9%, closely mirroring Brent’s rise above $71, and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is gaining about +3.9% after printing Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.31 versus consensus near $0.17, even as revenue slipped from $5.64 billion to about $5.11 billion, below expectations around $5.55 billion. The equity tape is effectively endorsing the futures repricing: higher oil plus earnings beats in names like OXY are drawing capital back into the sector and validating the idea that CL=F in the mid-$60s and BZ=F in the low-$70s reflect more than just a short-covering spike.

Risk premium versus supply reality – why the upside is powerful but not unlimited

Despite the war premium, the move is still constrained by one hard fact: so far there has been no confirmed, large-scale outage. History shows that conflict in the Gulf region often raises volatility more than it delivers lasting supply destruction, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz repeatedly resuming after brief disruptions. That is why the market is treating $66–$71 as a risk band rather than an automatic springboard to three-digit prices; price surges on escalation headlines but fades when diplomacy shows signs of life or when officials emphasize that they want crude to keep moving. The real upside shock scenario is clearly defined: a direct hit on critical infrastructure, a prolonged closure of Hormuz, or a chain of attacks that materially cuts exports could propel WTI CL=F toward $80 and Brent BZ=F toward or above $85 much faster than most positioning models assume.

WTI CL=F and Brent BZ=F – tactical stance and directional bias

At current levels, the structure points to a tactically bullish bias with clearly defined risk, not a complacent chase. For WTI CL=F, the crucial support band is $62–$63; as long as price holds above that zone, the path of least resistance remains toward $69–$71, with war headlines and any pro-growth decisions on tariffs or U.S. data acting as accelerators. For Brent BZ=F, the key levels are $70 on the downside and $72–$74 on the upside; trading above $70 while repeatedly testing the upper band argues for an eventual push toward the low-$80s if no sudden de-escalation emerges. With that backdrop and with futures, curve shape, inventories and energy equities all aligned, the setup leans bullish with tight risk parameters rather than neutral: weakness back toward $62 WTI and $70 Brent looks more like an opportunity to engage the trend than a reason to call the top, unless those levels fail decisively and drag the market back into the old oversupply narrative.