Qualcomm Stock Price Forecast - QCOM at $179 AI, Autos and EPS Breakout Make QCOM Undervalued

NASDAQ:QCOM – Underpriced EPS Machine Leveraging AI, Autos and Premium Android

(Real-time chart: NASDAQ:QCOM)

Qualcomm’s Earnings Ceiling Near $12 Is About to Break

For roughly five years, non-GAAP EPS at NASDAQ:QCOM has struggled to break decisively above the $12 area, even though the stock briefly commanded higher multiples during the early 2024 bull phase. Today the profile is different. The share price trades around $179.56, with a 52-week range of $120.80–$205.95 and a trailing P/E of 35.85, but forward expectations are still modeled conservatively, with 2026 EPS treated as almost flat versus recent run rates. Internally, the earnings engine has shifted from a single smartphone pillar to a portfolio that includes premium Android, automotive, IoT and XR, AI PCs and an emerging AI data center inference business. On conservative assumptions based on FY2025 trajectories, an ~8.5% EPS uplift into FY2026 is already visible before fully accounting for AI data center or later-stage ADAS upside. That alone is enough to push EPS through the $12 ceiling and justify a valuation re-rating. At roughly 15x forward earnings, versus a semiconductor peer median closer to the low 30s, the market is still pricing QCOM as a mature handset story rather than a diversified AI plus auto platform with multi-year visibility.

Premium Android Mix In NASDAQ:QCOM – The ASP Engine Behind The Next EPS Leg

The first structural driver is the shift in Android toward premium tiers. In Q4 FY2025, QCT handset revenue grew about 14% year-over-year in what management described as a flat global handset market. That simple combination implies that revenue per device is rising sharply even without unit growth. Consumers across developed and emerging markets are trading up to higher-end Android devices, and within that tier Qualcomm has materially strengthened its position. The company now anchors roughly 75% share at Samsung’s premium tier as a new baseline, giving NASDAQ:QCOM disproportionate leverage to each flagship Android cycle. Higher performance requirements for AI on-device workloads, camera compute, connectivity and graphics translate directly into higher Snapdragon content per device. Even if global smartphone units expand at low single digits, revenue per device can easily drive mid-teens revenue growth in the premium slice. In the conservative EPS framework, QCT handset revenue is only assumed to grow 5% in FY2026, well below the 14% just reported, yet this mix shift still accounts for almost half of the modeled ~8.5% EPS uplift, highlighting how underappreciated the structural ASP story remains.

Automotive In NASDAQ:QCOM – $4B+ Run Rate And A Second Profit Engine

Automotive has transitioned from narrative to hard numbers. QCT Automotive grew about 17% year-over-year in Q4 FY2025, and for the full FY2025 the segment expanded roughly 36%, reaching a more than $4B annual run rate compared with roughly $1.5B on a trailing basis around September 2023. That is close to a tripling in about two years. The mix is moving up the value stack. Qualcomm is no longer just providing connectivity; it is now shipping higher-value ADAS content with the commercial rollout of Snapdragon Ride Pilot, as well as richer digital cockpit solutions. As OEMs roll out more advanced cockpits and driver-assist systems, content per vehicle and contract duration both increase, giving NASDAQ:QCOM multi-year visibility on a growing base. In the conservative EPS model, automotive is only assumed to grow around 20%, far below the 36% achieved in FY2025, yet still delivers a meaningful incremental earnings layer and reduces cyclicality enough to justify a higher multiple than a pure handset vendor.

IoT, XR And AI PCs In NASDAQ:QCOM – Smaller Lines, Real EPS Leverage

Beyond handsets and vehicles, several smaller but fast-growing segments are building additional EPS leverage for NASDAQ:QCOM. In Q4, IoT revenue grew about 7% year-over-year, supported by industrial use cases, networking products and fixed-wireless access. XR demand is running ahead of previous internal expectations, as players like Meta and Samsung accelerate smart-glasses and mixed-reality programs based on Qualcomm platforms. Combined, XR and IoT delivered roughly 22% growth, but the EPS framework still cuts that back to roughly 10% for FY2026 to stay deliberately conservative. On top of that, AI PCs represent the next large adoption wave. Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X platform has already secured about 150 design wins through 2026, embedding NASDAQ:QCOM directly into the first generation of on-device AI laptops. These categories broaden the QCT base, reduce dependence on handset cycles, and add incremental operating leverage as they scale, because each new dollar of high-value XR and AI PC revenue typically carries better margin than baseline handset dollars.

AI Data Center Strategy In NASDAQ:QCOM – Focused Attack On Inference, Not A Full-Stack War

The most misunderstood pillar is AI data centers. Rather than attempting to replicate the full general-purpose GPU stack, NASDAQ:QCOM is targeting AI inference, where its low-power, high-efficiency edge heritage is a direct advantage. The initial data-center attack is built around the AI 200 and AI 250 platforms, designed specifically for efficient inference workloads rather than high-watt training clusters. Qualcomm has already announced a 200MW partnership with Humain, a Saudi-based AI data center operator, providing a concrete first anchor customer. Architecturally, the company leans on NPU design and memory efficiency to deliver inference without depending on extremely expensive HBM-based memory stacks. The economic logic is straightforward. The AI data center market is massive; Qualcomm does not need large share for this to matter at the P&L level. A measurable slice of the inference total addressable market can easily translate into multi-billion-dollar revenue in the 2027 and beyond window. Current valuation at roughly 15x forward earnings is not discounting that optionality; the stock is still being priced primarily on handsets, automotive and IoT, leaving the AI data center story as upside if execution and hyperscaler deals scale as management expects.

Automotive AI Cabin Platform With LG – Strengthening NASDAQ:QCOM Car Cockpit Moat

The automotive story for NASDAQ:QCOM is not limited to connectivity and ADAS. The recent LG partnership shows Qualcomm pushing into the software and user-experience layer of the vehicle. Qualcomm and LG will present an AI Cabin Platform at CES 2026 designed for digital cockpits, integrating generative AI directly into in-vehicle infotainment systems. The platform uses AI models for image generation and vision-based assistance to enhance personalization, media and driver support inside the car. Following the announcement, QCOM shares rose about 3.53% in one session, illustrating how investors react when automotive AI moves from theory to concrete product news. In parallel, LG is expanding into high-bandwidth memory equipment and hybrid bonding technologies that support AI processors, reinforcing the broader AI hardware stack where high-end semiconductor vendors operate. All of this signals that NASDAQ:QCOM is not just selling chips into vehicles, but co-designing AI-rich cockpit architectures with Tier-1 partners, which deepens its integration and makes it harder to displace.

Valuation, Dividend And Quality In NASDAQ:QCOM – Mispriced Relative To Real Profile

From a valuation and capital-return perspective, NASDAQ:QCOM remains misaligned with its fundamentals. The recent share price around $179.56 sits below a 52-week high of $205.95 and well above the $120.80 low, while the forward multiple is only about 15x earnings. That is significantly below an approximate 30x multiple for the largest tech and AI leaders, below the S&P 500 above 22x, and well under a semiconductor peer median in the low 30s. At the same time, Qualcomm offers a dividend yield of about 1.98%, supported by a 22-year dividend growth streak and a payout ratio under 30%, indicating high safety and room for future increases. This combination of discounted valuation, long dividend track record and diversified growth drivers means downside is buffered while upside is still not priced in. If EPS breaks above $12 on an ~8.5% uplift in FY2026 and the market re-rates the stock to 16.5x–18x on a more diversified, less cyclical earnings stream, a reasonable value range in the $195–$215 band emerges, representing roughly 10–20% upside from current levels, with further potential if AI data center and ADAS adoption accelerate.

**Capital Flows, Trading Color And Ownership In NASDAQ:QCOM

Recent flow data reinforces the picture of an actively traded institutional name rather than a stock being distributed into weakness. A major global bank’s principal trading unit disclosed activity that included buying 7,511 shares around $174.50–$176.00, selling 116,666 shares within $172.90–$176.09, and adjusting long and short derivative positions across several thousand reference securities. This is classic liquidity provision and risk balancing, not a directional capitulation. Over the past year, QCOM shares have gained around 16.9%, while a broad electronics and semiconductors index has rallied closer to 79.1%, leaving a visible gap relative to the strongest AI beneficiaries. That underperformance sets up room for catch-up if the market starts to pay for automotive, AI PCs and data center inference alongside the handset franchise. For a granular view of who is buying and how insiders behave, the key references remain the insider and profile pages:
QCOM insider & ownership activity and QCOM stock profile.

Risk Map For NASDAQ:QCOM – Where The Thesis Can Break

The upside case for NASDAQ:QCOM must be balanced against several material risks. Competition and share shifts in the premium handset tier can pressure pricing and margins if Qualcomm is forced to defend design wins more aggressively. A meaningful portion of revenue is directly or indirectly tied to China and broader Asian supply chains, leaving earnings exposed to further escalation in US–China technology restrictions or licensing disputes. On the Apple side, the anticipated modem transition around 2027 remains an overhang; premium Android and automotive have to more than offset that impact for the EPS curve to stay smooth. In AI data centers, the execution risk is straightforward: if the AI 200 and AI 250 roadmap plus the Humain deployment do not convert into broad hyperscaler traction, AI optionality will stay capped. Macro conditions and rate volatility also remain relevant; even with the Fed funds rate now near 4.25% after an easing cycle, a sharp slowdown would still hit device volumes and automotive demand. These risks are not trivial, but the current valuation discount versus peers already prices in a substantial portion of them, leaving the skew still positive if Qualcomm continues to execute.

Segment EPS Math In NASDAQ:QCOM – Why A Conservative Model Shows ~8.5% Uplift

The strength of the NASDAQ:QCOM case is that it does not rely on optimistic assumptions. Using recent quarterly numbers and management guidance as a baseline, a conservative EPS build assigns roughly 5% growth to QCT handset revenue for FY2026, even though the last quarter printed 14% year-over-year growth. Automotive is set at 20% growth, below the actual 36% just delivered for FY2025, off a base that already exceeds $4B annualized. IoT and XR together are dialed back to 10% growth despite a combined ~22% reported pace. Layered on top of that, the business mix shift toward automotive, XR, AI PCs and later AI inference improves margin structure, so each incremental revenue dollar contributes more to EPS than handset revenue alone. On these restrained inputs, the model still generates an approximate 8.5% EPS uplift in FY2026, pushing earnings clearly above the historical $12 ceiling. Crucially, this excludes more speculative 2027-plus drivers like full-scale AI data-center ramp and deeper ADAS penetration, which remain potential upside rather than baked-in assumptions.

Verdict On NASDAQ:QCOM – Buy With 10–30% Upside And Asymmetric Risk/Reward

Taking the full picture together, NASDAQ:QCOM at around $179.56 offers a combination of discounted valuation, visible multi-segment growth and unpriced AI optionality. Premium Android ASP expansion, automotive at a $4B+ run rate growing double digits, IoT and XR momentum, AI PCs with roughly 150 design wins, and a focused AI inference data center strategy all support an EPS trajectory that can deliver more than 8.5% near-term growth and break the $12 resistance zone. The stock trades at about 15x forward earnings, with a 1.98% dividend yield, a 22-year dividend growth record and a payout ratio below 30%, well below other AI-linked semis and below the broader market. On that basis, QCOM is a Buy, with a realistic 12-month fair value range in the $195–$215 zone and a credible broader band of 10–30% upside if AI data center and ADAS adoption come through faster than the conservative baseline, while downside is cushioned by valuation, diversification and balance-sheet quality.

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