Ripple (XRP-USD) Holds $2.51 as ETF Outflows, Whale Shifts, and U.S. Regulatory Delays Define Market Mood
XRP-USD Stabilizes After 4.6% Drop Amid ETF and Macro Pressure
Ripple (XRP-USD) trades at $2.51, down 4.6%, following a week of heavy ETF outflows, renewed U.S.–China trade tensions, and cautious sentiment across digital assets. The correction comes after a major liquidation wave erased over $19 billion in crypto positions, dragging XRP from its recent highs near $2.73 to test the $2.45 zone. Despite the drop, XRP remains 58% higher year-to-date, maintaining its position as the fifth-largest cryptocurrency, with a market capitalization near $154 billion.
The pressure aligns with broader crypto weakness: Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades around $113,300, down 1.9%, while Ethereum (ETH-USD) slips to $4,134, a 2.8% decline. Yet, XRP’s fundamentals—driven by ETF developments, whale activity, and ongoing legal clarity—suggest its market narrative is far from over.
ETF Outflows Highlight Investor Repositioning Across Crypto Funds
The latest $756 million ETF outflow wave hit the crypto market hard. Bitcoin ETFs saw $327 million in withdrawals, while Ethereum ETFs lost $429 million. The SEC’s ongoing review delays—linked to the U.S. government shutdown—have frozen at least 16 crypto ETF applications, including those tied to XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin. This has temporarily stalled diversification opportunities for institutions seeking regulated XRP exposure.
Ripple’s ETF-linked products, such as the REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR), have shown resilience amid the downturn. XRPR fell 2.13% to $21.60, after reaching a 52-week high of $22.07 earlier in the week. Trading volume remained stable, suggesting retail and institutional holders are maintaining long exposure despite broader ETF redemptions. With assets under management estimated at $185 million, XRPR remains a small but symbolically important piece of Ripple’s growing financial footprint.
Regulatory Delays and Political Factors Slow ETF Expansion
Ripple’s ETF ambitions are currently restrained by regulatory gridlock. The SEC’s delayed review process, caused by the temporary government shutdown, has pushed back decisions on multiple crypto ETFs, including funds tied to XRP, Solana, and Polygon. According to Bitget COO Vugar Usi Zade, this pause is “a regulatory glitch, not a reversal.” Once government operations resume, he expects a “wave of approvals” that could channel new institutional inflows into the XRP ecosystem.
In Washington, crypto policy remains uncertain as the Biden administration weighs enforcement actions and Trump’s trade tariffs dominate the macro agenda. The administration’s delay in crypto ETF reviews has kept XRP’s spot ETF approval on hold, even after Ripple’s partial legal victory in 2024 clarified that secondary sales of XRP are not securities. Analysts believe this clarity positions Ripple favorably once the SEC resumes activity.
Institutional Investors Continue Accumulating Despite Volatility
On-chain data reveals that XRP whales—addresses holding more than 10 million tokens—have added 2.23 billion XRP worth roughly $5.5 billion since early October. This marks one of the largest accumulation streaks since mid-2023. Exchange data from Santiment shows declining exchange balances, suggesting whales are moving holdings off-exchange, possibly to self-custody or staking pools.
Whale activity coincides with Ripple’s push into institutional partnerships, including the $200,000 Immunefi Attackthon, a cybersecurity initiative aimed at testing and strengthening XRP Ledger (XRPL) infrastructure. The event has attracted leading blockchain security firms and bolstered investor confidence in Ripple’s long-term ecosystem security.
Market Reaction to ETF Outflows: Resilience Over Capitulation
Despite heavy ETF redemptions, Ripple’s ecosystem has not shown signs of systemic weakness. The XRPR ETF’s stability and the absence of large institutional liquidations suggest long-term investors are unfazed. Traders appear to be waiting for macro clarity rather than abandoning positions. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, now at 49, reflects neutrality, far from the panic seen during past corrections.
Ripple’s growing foothold in tokenized finance—especially through cross-border payment integrations—continues to attract institutional attention. Analysts expect XRP to benefit once ETF flows normalize and new spot fund approvals resume.
Correlation with Bitcoin and Broader Market Impact
Historically, XRP has followed Bitcoin’s price cycles, but recent divergence indicates growing independence. During the recent market drop, Bitcoin fell 3.4%, Ethereum declined 4.5%, and XRP only slipped 4.6% despite being a smaller-cap asset. The correlation coefficient between XRP and BTC dropped to 0.68, its lowest in nine months, hinting at XRP’s evolving market structure.
This partial decoupling comes as BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) strengthens its dominance. IBIT now holds 804,944 BTC—valued at $91.8 billion—representing 4.2% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Institutional preference for IBIT underscores how the ETF model can stabilize assets once regulatory clarity emerges—a model Ripple aims to replicate when its own ETF gains SEC approval.
XRP Technical Levels: Support at $2.35, Resistance at $2.75
Technically, XRP-USD trades within a short-term consolidation range between $2.35 and $2.75. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 46.2, suggesting neutral momentum. The 50-day EMA at $2.40 remains a crucial short-term support, while the 200-day EMA at $2.02 marks a deeper structural floor.
A decisive break above $2.75 could open the path toward $3.00, a level last seen in late Q2. Conversely, a drop below $2.35 might trigger a retest of the $2.10 zone, which coincides with prior whale accumulation clusters. Trading volume remains elevated, averaging $4.3 billion daily, signaling strong two-way participation.
Macro Outlook: Trade War and ETF Flows Define Near-Term Risk
The U.S.–China tariff escalation remains the top macro threat. President Trump’s plan to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese exports has rattled global risk sentiment and driven safe-haven flows into cash and gold. Bitcoin and altcoins—including XRP—reacted with synchronized corrections.
Meanwhile, institutional capital rotation continues as traders unwind high-leverage crypto bets while retaining ETF exposure for regulated diversification. Ripple’s legal clarity and cross-border adoption story are keeping institutional capital from fully exiting the asset.
Ripple’s Expanding Global Ecosystem Supports Valuation Stability
Ripple’s global presence continues to expand, with adoption by financial institutions across Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. The firm’s XRPL cross-border settlement platform has processed over $2.3 billion in on-chain value this quarter, a 29% increase year-over-year. The company’s push toward stablecoin integration and CBDC infrastructure further enhances XRP’s long-term value proposition.
In addition, Ripple’s partnerships in the Asia-Pacific region—particularly with Korean payment processors and Indian fintechs—mirror the early-stage institutional demand patterns that supported Solana’s KRW stablecoin surge earlier this month. These trends position XRP as one of the top beneficiaries once crypto ETF approvals widen beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Institutional Positioning and Volume Outlook
Volume data across major exchanges show sustained liquidity concentration. Binance and Bitstamp together account for over 34% of XRP’s global trading activity, with institutional desk volume rising 18% week-over-week. ETF and derivatives participation remain high, as open interest on CME XRP futures stays above $320 million, reflecting continued professional engagement.
Ripple’s treasury activity also remains conservative. The company holds around 46 billion XRP, or 46% of total supply, locked in escrow, with a scheduled monthly release of 1 billion XRP. Most of these tokens are re-locked, signaling disciplined supply management and reducing market dilution risk.
Verdict: HOLD — XRP’s Structural Strength Outweighs Short-Term Volatility
Despite ETF outflows and macro uncertainty, XRP (XRP-USD) maintains robust structural fundamentals. Institutional accumulation, legal clarity, and Ripple’s expanding utility base continue to differentiate XRP from purely speculative assets.
Technical resilience above $2.35 and whale demand near $2.45 indicate strong underlying support.
Once ETF approvals resume and macro pressures ease, XRP could reclaim $2.90–$3.10 in the medium term.
For now, XRP remains a HOLD, with upside potential anchored by institutional adoption, ETF expansion prospects, and Ripple’s growing role in regulated finance.
That's TradingNEWS
