Solana Price Forecast - SOL-USD Near $78: Can the $75–$80 Support Zone Hold After a 38% Drop?

Solana Price (SOL-USD) Below $80: Stress Zone With Crowded Support

Short-Term Drawdown And Volatility In SOL-USD

Solana (SOL-USD) is trading in the high-$70s after a sharp three-day slide, with roughly 5% down on the latest session and about 6% the day before. From its recent local high, SOL has dropped around 38.4% over the last month and is down about 38.1% year-to-date. That move has driven price under the $80 line and back into a dense demand band between roughly $75 and $79.58. This is the third time in about two weeks that SOL has been forced to test this same support cluster, which tells you buyers are defending, but they are not yet strong enough to flip the trend on their own. The last major impulse peak near $247 now sits roughly 69% above the current price, so the market is clearly treating this phase as a deep corrective leg rather than a marginal pullback.

Volume, Liquidity And Market Participation

Turnover is still heavy. Daily trading volume sits around $3.8–4.0 billion, roughly 9% of circulating market cap in a single day. Weekly volumes recently hit about $54.6 billion at the peak of the selloff and have settled back toward the low-$20 billion region. That pattern—huge spike, then a step-down rather than a collapse—usually signals that the forced selling wave is easing, but liquidity remains deep and two-sided. There is still plenty of capital actively repricing SOL-USD, not a dead market drifting lower on thin order books.

ETF Flows: Institutions Quietly Accumulating SOL Exposure

While spot price is under pressure, listed spot SOL products continue to attract money. US spot Solana ETFs have now logged nine consecutive days of net inflows, with one of those days adding about $7.99 million and cumulative inflows over that streak around $36 million. That is not retail chasing candles; it is structured capital averaging in as the token trades near the mid-$70s to low-$80s band. Persistent ETF inflows during a 30–40% drawdown are a clear sign that larger players view this zone as accumulation territory rather than a long-term exit point, even if they are not trying to catch the exact bottom.

On-Chain Activity: Network Usage Still Elevated Despite Price Slide

At the protocol level, network usage remains strong relative to history. Weekly active users on the Solana chain recently spiked to their highest level since early last year, when SOL-USD traded near $188. Activity has cooled slightly in the last two weeks but remains high versus older baselines. That tells you this is not a chain in structural decline; usage, DeFi flows and NFT or application activity continue to justify attention, even while price compresses. The divergence between a 60–70% price drawdown from the peak and still-elevated user metrics is exactly the kind of mismatch long-horizon capital watches.

Derivatives Structure: Long Liquidations, Bearish Skew And Cautious Leverage

Derivatives data confirm that the latest leg down has been driven by long-side capitulation rather than an outright short squeeze. Open interest sits around $4.9 billion, off about 1.4% over 24 hours, pointing to some deleveraging but not a full washout. During the same window, long liquidations hit roughly $16 million versus only about $3.5 million in short liquidations, which means the move has been punishing aggressive dip-buyers. The long-to-short ratio near 0.96 shows more short positioning left standing than longs, and the perpetual funding rate around -0.0026 to -0.0027 is slightly negative, with shorts paying a small fee to longs. That combination—more shorts than longs, negative funding and fresh long liquidations—usually marks a later phase of a downtrend, not the beginning. The market has already tilted bearish; there is less fuel left for another massive downside liquidation cascade unless new leverage piles in.

Trend Strength, Momentum And Oversold Signals

Momentum indicators show a strong downtrend but also clear exhaustion signals. On higher timeframes, the Average Directional Index (ADX) sits above 50, confirming a powerful trend, and the Bear/Bull power indicator remains negative, evidencing downside dominance. The Relative Strength Index is parked close to 31 on the daily chart, brushing oversold levels without a sustained bounce yet. That kind of RSI reading, aligned with a high ADX, describes a market where sellers still control direction but are running into diminishing incremental selling power. On shorter frames, the same RSI sits below 30 multiple times, then prints marginally higher lows while price retests the same zone near $77–$80. That is a textbook early divergence: price revisits the floor, but momentum stops making new lows, suggesting the marginal seller is weakening.

Fibonacci Levels, Swing Failure Pattern And Local Bottom Attempts

The recent rejection spike below support has printed a clean swing failure pattern at a key retracement level. Price flushed under a previous low in the mid-$70s, triggered stops, tapped liquidity just below, and then snapped back above that low, leaving multiple downside wicks on the chart. That structure appears right on top of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, where many trend followers watch for deep corrective buys. A swing failure pattern off the 0.618 level is often what you see around local bottoms: the market hunts liquidity below an obvious low, finds aggressive buyers waiting, and then reclaims the lost level. It is not confirmation by itself, but it is exactly the kind of pattern that marks the transfer from panic sellers to patient accumulators.

Support Zones: $79.58, $77 Cluster, $75.74 Fib And $67.50 Line In The Sand

Support is not a single price; it is a stacked band. The immediate pivot is the recent day low near $79.58. Just below that, SOL-USD is sitting on the 23.6% trend-based Fibonacci support around $75.74, calculated from the January 13 swing high at about $148.74 to the February 15 high near $91.26 and including the February 6 low at roughly $67.50. That $75–$77 region has now been tested about three times in two weeks. If that shelf fails cleanly, the chart opens a direct corridor back to the February 6 low around $67.50, which effectively defines the lower bound of this cycle’s range. Further down, the 50% trend-based retracement zone near $61.48 is the next structural downside level, but that would require a clear break of $67.50 with momentum and volume, not just a wick.

Resistance Stack: $78, $86.50, $88, $91.21, $100 And The Moving Averages

On the way up, SOL-USD faces a layered ceiling before any talk of a full recovery. The first micro-resistance is actually the same $78–$79 band that has flipped between support and resistance intraday. A sustained close back above $78 with follow-through is the minimum requirement to argue for a short-term floor. Above that, the next meaningful intraday pivot sits near $86.50, which capped a prior rebound. Higher up, the $88 region marks a prior distribution area and natural liquidity target after any confirmed bounce. On the daily structure, a key resistance sits near $91.21, aligning with the upper boundary of a descending channel and a prior failed rebound. Only after clearing that line can the market seriously aim at the psychological $100 level. Beyond $100, the 50-day exponential moving average around $102.90 and the 50-day simple moving average near $112.27 are critical trend references. Further out, the 200-day average near $160.37 is the line separating “deep correction” from “full trend regeneration”. Until SOL-USD can sustain above $112–$120, this is still a countertrend trade, not a confirmed macro reversal.

Bollinger Bands, Keltner Channels And Volatility Extremes

Volatility bands frame the risk envelope. SOL-USD is trading near the lower Bollinger Band around $61.05, with the middle band sitting near $92.84. Price living at or below the lower band almost always signals an extreme phase, historically followed by mean-reversion attempts toward the middle band. Keltner Channel analysis shows a lower boundary near roughly $78.14, which is precisely where the latest tests are clustering. As long as price oscillates between that lower Keltner band and the mid-Bollinger line, the setup is a volatility-squeezed downtrend with a rising probability of sharp, short-term counter-moves.

Sentiment, Money Flow And Liquidation Profile

Sentiment metrics are tilted negative but not panicked. The funding rate is slightly below zero, indicating that shorts are willing to pay to maintain their positions. The Money Flow Index near 31–38 shows net outflows but not a total collapse in capital allocation. Recent liquidation data show that long-side positions have been the primary casualties on the break under $80, with day-long liquidations far outpacing shorts. That means the market has already purged many late longs; any further aggressive downside would need fresh leverage to join the short side or spot holders to capitulate at lower levels. The Awesome Oscillator reading around -27 to -28 confirms sustained negative momentum, but the size of the bars is beginning to contract. That pattern—shrinking negative bars after a large impulse—often comes just before either a relief rally or a sideways digestion phase.

External Technical Forecasts: Compressed Near-Term Models, Wide Long-Term Range

Quant models tracking SOL-USD are flashing extremely wide ranges. One short-term model prints an absurd tail-risk monthly target near $1.10, which is obviously not a realistic base case but demonstrates how volatility and drawdown have destabilized near-dated projections. More sensible horizons suggest a quarterly target around $116.45, which would imply roughly 40–50% upside from sub-$80 levels if the current zone holds. Longer-dated projections point to levels near $219 over a 12-month horizon, about 160% above current prices. None of those numbers are guarantees, but they show how asymmetric the payoff becomes if the $75–$80 band acts as a durable floor and if network and ETF flows stay constructive.

Medium-Term Trend: Descending Channel And The Road Back To $100

On the daily timeframe, SOL-USD remains locked inside a descending structure of lower highs and lower lows since failing to reclaim the $94 area. A capitulation spike below $70 marked the previous extreme, followed by a failed rebound under $90 and then renewed pressure into the mid-$70s. The channel overhead resistance near $91.21 and the psychological $100 level form a tight zone that has to be broken to change the medium-term narrative. Directional Movement Index readings show the negative component dominating; the Money Flow Index below 40 underlines that buying pressure is subdued. Until price can reclaim and hold above roughly $90–$100 with rising volume and improving momentum, the trend remains down, even if tactical bounces appear violent.

Risk-Reward Assessment And Verdict On SOL-USD

From a pure structure perspective, SOL-USD is in a high-volatility correction with a strong but tiring downtrend, a heavily contested support band around $75–$80 and a clear downside extension zone toward $67.50–$64 if that band fails. On the other side, you have persistent ETF inflows, elevated network activity, oversold momentum readings, a visible swing failure pattern at a major Fibonacci level, and multi-month upside scenarios pointing into the $110–$220 range if conditions stabilize. That mix produces a lopsided profile: defined short-term downside of roughly $10–$15 versus potential medium-term upside that can easily exceed $30–$100 per coin if the broader crypto risk cycle turns back up. Under those conditions, SOL-USD at sub-$80 levels aligns more with a speculative Buy than a neutral stance, with the caveat that risk control must be strict. A pragmatic framework is to treat the $67–$70 zone as the structural invalidation for this cycle; if price decisively loses that area on high volume and fails to reclaim it, the thesis that this is just a deep correction rather than a full trend reversal breaks. Until that line is taken out, the combination of ETF accumulation, strong on-chain activity and technical exhaustion supports an aggressive but data-backed bullish bias rather than a bearish or flat position.

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