XRP Price Forecast - XRP-USD Stuck Near $1.33 as ETF Demand Vanishes and Binance Leverage Washes Out

XRP-USD AROUND $1.33: RANGE-BEHAVIOR UNDER PRESSURE

PRICE ACTION FOCUSED BETWEEN $1.30 SUPPORT AND $1.40–$1.42 RESISTANCE

XRP-USD is trading close to $1.33, stuck in a tight band that has defined February. On the downside, the $1.30 area is acting as the first “break-or-bounce” level where pullbacks repeatedly attract bids. On the upside, every attempt to push into the $1.40–$1.42 zone is being sold, keeping price boxed into a corrective range rather than a trending move higher.

TECHNICAL MOMENTUM: PRESSURE, NOT CAPITULATION

Daily indicators show a market under steady pressure, not outright panic. RSI is sitting in the low-to-mid 30s, which confirms weak momentum but not a classic oversold flush. MACD remains below zero, consistent with a bearish bias, and short moving averages are hovering around spot near $1.33 while longer averages sit higher and slope downward. That combination reflects a market grinding lower within a range, where buyers are defending levels rather than driving a sustained advance.

MOVING AVERAGES AND “SUPPLY ZONES” ABOVE SPOT

Short-term moving averages clustered near spot signal indecision, but the key point is that medium-term averages around the mid-$1.30s to upper-$1.30s still sit above current price and act as overhead supply. Each time XRP approaches these zones, supply reappears and rallies run out of energy. Until XRP can sustain closes back above the $1.40–$1.42 band and then reclaim those moving averages, the tape remains a range with a negative tilt rather than a constructive uptrend.

MACRO AND POLICY BACKDROP: TARIFF AND REGULATION NOISE DAMPING RISK APPETITE

The wider environment is unfriendly for aggressive risk taking. Market participants are digesting the new 150-day 10% temporary tariff package out of Washington, with potential escalation toward 15%, on top of existing worries around geopolitical tensions and the fallout from earlier trade measures being struck down in court. At the same time, U.S. crypto market-structure talks and stablecoin-yield debates are back in focus, but these are playing out as slow-burn structural issues rather than immediate upside catalysts. Crypto, including XRP, continues to trade as a high-beta expression of overall risk appetite, so any macro shift toward “de-risk” quickly weighs on price.

ETF FLOWS AND DERIVATIVES: WEAK DEMAND, CLEANER POSITIONING

XRP spot ETFs have seen muted activity in recent days, with no fresh inflows since the end of last week and cumulative assets stabilizing rather than expanding. That signals cooling institutional appetite at current levels. In futures, open interest has been sliding from prior peaks even as day-to-day trading volume remains active, which points to leverage being taken out of the system. Lower leverage reduces the risk of forced liquidations in both directions and creates a cleaner backdrop where directional moves need real conviction, not just mechanical stop cascades.

ON-CHAIN AND LEDGER ACTIVITY: STRONG USAGE, WEAK PRICE RESPONSE

Activity on the XRP Ledger continues to build. Successful payments have climbed to multi-month highs, daily transactions remain elevated around the low-single-million range, and AMM deposits on the XRPL DEX have surged after recent upgrades such as Permissioned Domains and the rollout of permissioned DEX capabilities. Network usage, address activity, and liquidity provisioning all argue that the underlying system is being used and expanded. The disconnect is that this structural progress has not yet translated into price strength: XRP remains stuck below $1.40 and is roughly 45% off its early-year highs despite the fundamental network metrics.

WHALES VERSUS RETAIL: ACCUMULATION HIGHER, FATIGUE LOWER

Positioning data paints a split picture. Larger holders have been more active accumulating size on prior dips at higher levels, adding hundreds of millions of XRP over recent months while exchange reserves from major venues have generally trended lower. Smaller addresses, especially sub-10,000-XRP wallets, have been more prone to selling into weakness and exiting into volatility spikes. That pattern is classic: strong hands build into fear while weaker hands capitulate. However, as price has slid toward the low-$1.30s, even whales have slowed their pace, and there is no evidence yet of aggressive, fresh high-conviction buying right at this $1.30 shelf.

KEY LEVELS: WHAT MATTERS NEXT FOR XRP-USD

Near term, the market is anchored around three obvious zones. First, $1.30 is immediate support: a clean daily close below it would open room toward $1.25 and then the low-$1.20s, especially if macro risk-off deepens. Second, $1.40–$1.42 is the first real ceiling; XRP needs a sustained break and close above that band to show that supply is being absorbed rather than constantly re-offered. Third, the broader $1.50–$1.53 area, where key moving averages converge, is the line that would have to be recaptured to flip the medium-term structure back toward recovery. Until at least the first two conditions are met, XRP-USD remains a pressured range asset leaning on $1.30 support, with policy headlines and ETF flows acting more as sentiment noise than as a direct trigger for a decisive breakout.

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