Solana Price Forecast: Will SOL-USD’s 30% Bounce From $67 Survive the Next Leg Lower?

Solana (SOL-USD) – From $295 Peak To A Two-Year Low Near $67

Solana (SOL-USD) has shifted from a momentum leader to a stress test for risk appetite. After peaking close to $295 in January 2025, the token has surrendered a huge portion of that move. Over the last 30 days alone, SOL-USD dropped about 38%, printing a two-year low around $67 before bouncing. Over the past four months, the drawdown sits near 62%, which puts this slide firmly in “full-cycle correction” territory, not just a routine pullback.
As of the latest prints across major venues, SOL-USD trades roughly in the $87–$88 area, up more than 30% from the $67 low, but still far below the $105–$120 band that defined the prior range. That rebound looks strong in percentage terms, yet structurally Solana remains embedded in a larger downtrend with several bearish technical patterns still active.

SOL-USD – Capitulation Around $67 And A 30% Rebound That Still Sits Inside A Falling Structure

The current phase started when SOL-USD slid down a falling channel and briefly touched the $67 zone in early February. The daily candle around that level showed a long lower shadow, signaling an aggressive intraday rejection of lower prices as bids stepped in around that area.
At the same time, a key liquidity indicator, the Money Flow Index, turned higher while price was still grinding lower from mid-December into early February. Price fell from triple-digits into the $60s, while capital inflows stabilized and then started to rise. That divergence explains how Solana managed to rally more than 30% off the lows without first tagging the absolute bottom of the wider channel.
The rebound pushed SOL-USD back into an $80–$96 consolidation band. That range is now the immediate battlefield. Holding above $80 keeps the post-crash recovery alive. Failing there re-opens $67 and then deeper technical targets.

Long-Horizon SOL Holders – Net Accumulation Rises From 1.88M To 1.97M Coins

The bounce from $67 is not only a chart story; wallets that hold Solana for more than roughly five months have quietly added exposure. Over the 30-day horizon ending around February 8, long-duration holders increased net holdings from about 1.88 million SOL to roughly 1.97 million SOL, a gain close to 5%.
That pace is meaningful but not aggressive. It shows that patient capital is returning, using the selloff to improve average entry levels rather than chasing parabolic strength. In healthier, high-conviction uptrends, the same group tends to expand positions faster and more forcefully. Here, the tone is cautious: accumulation is present, but still feels like testing the water rather than a full-scale re-deployment.
For SOL-USD, that means the foundation for a longer-term floor is present, yet far from bulletproof. The structure remains vulnerable if macro or crypto-wide risk sentiment deteriorates again.

Short-Term Supply – 1–7 Day Holders Cut Share From 8.32% To 5.40%

The sharp bounce attracted profit-taking and stress exits from reactive wallets. The cohort that held Solana between one day and one week started this phase controlling about 8.32% of circulating supply. By February 9, that share had dropped to around 5.40%, a reduction of nearly 35% in just two sessions.
Those coins did not vanish; they changed hands. The important point is that SOL-USD managed to hold most of the 30% rebound despite that fast supply rotation out of the most sensitive wallets. That tells you that deeper-pocket participants were willing to absorb the selling.
However, once that short-term overhang clears, the fuel for forced buying from shorts and panic sellers diminishes. If price stalls below key resistance, fresh waves of impatient holders can appear quickly again.

Short-Term P&L – NUPL Moves From -0.95 To -0.70, Losses Shrink But Remain Heavy

One of the sharpest signals of local panic came from short-term unrealized profit and loss. Around February 6, this metric for recent SOL buyers sat near -0.95, which corresponds to extreme paper losses and capitulation. After the relief rally from $67 to the high-$80s, that reading improved to about -0.70, a move of roughly 26% toward breakeven.
Even after that improvement, recent entrants remain deeply underwater. That matters. When short-horizon capital remains in loss, any stall in price can convert tension into renewed selling pressure as participants try to “escape” another leg down. The risk is that a failed attempt to break above resistance quickly flips into another cascade lower as this group rushes to get out.

ETF And Product Flows – $11.9M Single-Day Outflows Flag Cooling Big-Ticket Interest In SOL-USD

Solana’s listed products originally saw steady inflows. That trend has changed. Recent flow data show a single-day net outflow of about $11.9 million from SOL-linked exchange-traded products, the second-largest daily outflow since launch, only behind a washout in December 2025.
At the same time, one Solana ETF has clocked seven-day net redemptions of roughly 142,000 SOL, confirming that larger, more structured players have been stepping back during this drawdown. When you combine that with an estimated 62% slide in Solana’s market capitalization over four months, it is clear that institutional and quasi-institutional risk appetite has faded.
There is a nuance here. Historically, such large outflows late in a decline often coincide with exhaustion rather than the very first leg of a bear phase. But flows alone do not define a bottom. Without a visible turn back into sustained inflows, SOL-USD remains exposed to continued de-risking from those vehicles if the macro backdrop worsens.

Spot And Derivatives Context – SOL Around $87 In A Mixed Large-Cap Crypto Tape

Near the time of the latest prints, SOL-USD trades in the mid-$80s to high-$80s, while BTC-USD hovers around $70,000–$71,000 and ETH-USD around $2,120. XRP trades near $1.44, and broad large-cap indices show uneven performance.
Bitcoin’s recent break below one of its key round numbers triggered a broad risk reset across majors. Ethereum and XRP defended their respective support bands more successfully, while Solana underperformed and sliced through multiple levels in quick succession before stabilizing. That relative weakness is not random; it reflects both technical damage (clear breaks of structure) and a narrative overhang tied to previous outages and Solana’s high-beta profile.
In derivatives, perpetual futures on SOL continue to trade with healthy liquidity around $87–$88, but the dominance of short-term positioning means any renewed volatility will magnify both upside squeezes and downside flushes.

Multi-Timeframe Technicals – Falling Channel, Bearish Gaussian Flip And A Completed Head-And-Shoulders On SOL-USD

The backdrop for SOL-USD is built from several overlapping structures, and they largely point in the same direction. On the daily view, price has been respecting a falling channel, with lower highs and lower lows since the January 2025 peak near $295. The recent bounce from $67 occurred before touching the absolute channel floor, but still inside this descending framework.
On the weekly view, the Gaussian Channel has flipped bearish, indicating that the medium-term trend has shifted from a corrective phase to a more persistent downtrend. That flip rarely reverses immediately; usually it marks the start of a longer digestion or a deeper leg down.
The most important structure sits on the higher-timeframe chart: a broad head-and-shoulders pattern that has been forming for close to two years. The neckline for this formation comes in around $120. That level broke convincingly, confirming the pattern. The measured move from head to neckline implies targets in the $50–$57 region, depending on the exact measurement. Some extensions of the same structure on longer horizons point even lower, with scenario targets around $30 if the full amplitude plays out.
This is not a minor intraday signal. A two-year head-and-shoulders on a major asset like SOL-USD is a strong warning that the prior bull leg has ended and that the current phase is about risk management, not momentum chasing.

Key Price Levels – Why $96, $80, $75, $67, $57 And $50 Define The SOL-USD Map

Several levels now anchor decision-making around SOL-USD. The first band is $80–$96. After the bounce from $67, price has been oscillating inside this corridor. $80 acts as the near-term floor; sustained trading above that signposts that the rebound remains intact. A clean daily close below $80 turns the setup fragile again.
The top of this band, around $96, is critical. That zone served as strong support before the breakdown and now functions as a major resistance shelf. A decisive, high-volume break and weekly close above $96 would be the first serious evidence that the bounce is evolving into something more durable. Failing there repeatedly keeps every rally vulnerable to being faded.
Below, the first danger area is $75–$77, a region flagged by value-band metrics as a typical zone where local lows form. You already saw the first stab through that area when SOL-USD printed $67. That low near $67–$64 is now a must-hold level. Lose it, and the probability of a move towards the measured targets around $57 and then $50–$55 jumps sharply.
Further down, historical price memory and some structural projections line up around $42–$45, and the longest-horizon head-and-shoulders interpretation leaves the door open for an extreme scenario near $30 if crypto conditions break sharply again. On the upside, regaining $105–$110 would show that Solana is back inside the prior value area, and a weekly close above roughly $115 opens a path toward $135–$150.

MVRV Deviation Bands – SOL-USD Around The $75 Deep-Value Reference Zone

One of the more useful on-chain valuation gauges for SOL-USD right now is the MVRV extreme deviation band, which currently sits around $75. Historically, when Solana trades near or below that band, the market is in a zone where past cycles have tended to form medium-term lows, even if the exact inflection point came slightly below.
In the recent flush, the price overshot to $67, moving below the reference area, then rebounded back above it. Prior cycles around March 2022 and December 2020 show a similar pattern: a pierce of the lower band, then weeks or months of basing before a more convincing advance. The outlier case was the 2022 FTX collapse, when SOL-USD traded far below typical valuation bands for an extended period. That move proved that under severe stress, MVRV supports can fail dramatically.
Right now, with price hovering above the band and with long-term holders slowly adding, the valuation profile hints that the most violent part of the repricing may be behind. But it does not guarantee that $67 was the final low. In a risk-off macro environment, valuation tools can stay “cheap” for longer than participants expect.

Macro, Sentiment And Network Overhangs – Why The Market Still Discounts SOL-USD Aggressively

The chart patterns do not exist in isolation. The repricing of SOL-USD from $295 to the high-$80s is happening against a backdrop of elevated global rates, periodic spikes in inflation anxiety, and recurring flight-to-quality phases across risk assets. When risk gets repriced, high-beta names like Solana absorb a disproportionate share of selling.
On top of that, the asset still carries a reputation as a high-throughput chain that has, in the past, experienced network stability issues. Even if uptime has improved, the memory of outages lingers in pricing. The recent 62% market-cap erosion over four months and large ETF redemptions highlight that larger allocators chose to lighten up exposure rather than lean into weakness.
Regulatory uncertainty around the broader crypto complex also caps appetite. While Bitcoin and Ethereum enjoy clearer narratives among institutions, SOL-USD remains one layer down the risk curve. That status amplifies the impact of technical breakdowns like the confirmed head-and-shoulders and the bearish weekly Gaussian flip.

Upside Scenario For SOL-USD – What A Credible Recovery Would Look Like

A constructive path for SOL-USD from current levels requires a sequence of specific steps, not vague optimism. First, price needs to hold above $80 on closing bases while volatility compresses and volume normalizes. That would confirm that the $67 spike low was not just a one-off anomaly.
Next, the market needs a clean break through $96, ideally accompanied by rising spot volume and a visible easing in ETF outflows. A weekly close above $96 would show that prior support has been reclaimed as support again, not just tested from below. From there, the focus shifts to the $105–$110 band; recovery of that area would mean that the late-2025 distribution zone is being absorbed.
To fully challenge the bearish macro pattern, SOL-USD would have to push through approximately $115 and stay above it. That type of move would begin to invalidate the head-and-shoulders break on practical terms, even if the pattern stays visible on the chart. In that upside scenario, extensions toward $135–$150 become realistic.
On-chain, a healthier recovery would show faster growth in long-term holdings, sustained positive shifts in NUPL (short-term holders moving back into profit and not immediately dumping), and a turn in ETF and product flows from net outflows to consistent net inflows. Without those, any rally risks becoming another exit opportunity for trapped capital rather than the start of a new trend leg.

Downside Scenario For SOL-USD – How A Slide Toward $57, $50 Or The Mid-$40s Could Unfold

The bearish roadmap is straightforward. A decisive break below $80 on daily and weekly closes, especially if accompanied by renewed ETF redemptions and rising derivatives funding stress, would signal that the bounce off $67 failed. In that case, the market will immediately focus on the $75–$77 band and then the prior low between $67–$64.
If SOL-USD loses the $67 floor, the head-and-shoulders measured objective becomes the center of gravity. That projects to somewhere around $57, roughly 32% below the current $87–$88 zone. Breaching $57 opens the door to the broader target cluster around $50–$55, which combines the psychological round number with various structural projections.
More bearish outlooks anchor to $42–$45, a region that previously acted as a key pivot during Solana’s early advance, and to the $30 area implied by longer-term pattern extensions. Reaching those levels would likely require a combination of harsher macro tightening, a deeper crypto-wide risk reset, or renewed chain-specific issues.
In such a slide, MVRV bands would again move into extreme undervaluation territory, short-term NUPL would revisit or exceed the -0.95 panic zone, and ETF outflows would probably spike beyond the recent $11.9 million day. That environment would be dominated by forced sellers and long-horizon capital waiting for clarity rather than bravely averaging down.

Stance On Solana (SOL-USD) – Buy, Sell Or Hold At ~$87?

Pulling all of this together, SOL-USD around $87–$88 sits in the middle of a conflict between heavy technical damage and early signs of value interest. The token has already fallen 38% in a month and roughly 62% over four months, long-term holders have increased exposure from 1.88M to about 1.97M SOL, and MVRV bands point to a valuation region where past cycles often formed durable lows.
At the same time, the two-year head-and-shoulders pattern is active, the weekly Gaussian Channel is bearish, ETF products just printed one of their worst outflow days (~$11.9M), and price remains below decisive resistance at $96 and well under the $105–$120 belt. Measured pattern targets still flag $57, $50 and, in extreme scenarios, the mid-$40s or even $30 as plausible outcomes if support fails.
On that balance, the current zone does not qualify as a clean momentum long, but the asset is also well past the euphoric phase. The most accurate label for SOL-USD now is a “Hold with a short-term bearish tilt.”
For someone already exposed and comfortable with crypto-level volatility, the structure does not yet scream forced liquidation, but it demands strict risk limits and respect for the $80 and $67 floors. For fresh capital, the set-up argues for patience: either wait for confirmation above $96–$105 to pay up for a higher-quality trend, or demand a more attractive entry closer to the $75–$67 zone if the market delivers another flush.

That's TradingNEWS