XRP Price Forecast: XRP-USD 31% Crash, $2.2B Whale Bid and Whether $1.00 or $2.00 Comes First

XRP-USD – Liquidity flush, structural damage and where the real levels sit now

XRP-USD daily structure – from $1.20 breakdown to the $1.00 last-demand band

XRP-USD is no longer in a comfortable consolidation. The 31% monthly drop and the clean break below the major swing low around $1.20 turned a former floor into a hard ceiling. The selloff after that breach was impulsive, not a slow distribution: price cut through several previously respected demand zones with almost no reaction, which means buy-side liquidity at those levels was already consumed. The market had to dig deeper to find willing buyers. That deeper area now sits around the broader daily demand region near $1.00, where the lower boundary of the channel and a higher-timeframe demand block overlap. This zone is one of the last obvious daily supports left before the chart opens a bigger vacuum below. The first test of that region produced a bounce, but the rebound is modest compared with the violence of the drop. As long as XRP-USD trades below the broken cluster between roughly $1.20 and the mid-$1.40s, those prior supports are now structural supply. Any move back into that band is a test of how serious sellers are, not evidence of a full recovery.

XRP-USD 4H profile – $1.00 demand test, $1.50 internal supply and a clean lower-high sequence

On the 4-hour chart, the dominance of sellers is obvious. XRP drove straight into the $1.00 area in one strong leg, tagged that psychological round number and only then bounced. The rebound pushed price toward an internal supply zone around $1.50, aligned with earlier consolidation and breakdown areas. That $1.50 pocket is where trapped longs from the last range are waiting to exit and where fresh shorts are comfortable leaning again. Every rally toward that band so far is getting treated as corrective, not as the start of a trend reversal. The 4H structure is a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, with supply stepping in faster than demand builds. Until XRP-USD clears and holds above the internal supply band, upside is a counter-trend move inside a broader down-swing.

XRP-USD and macro risk – payrolls, CPI and the $70K Bitcoin correlation

Short-term direction in XRP-USD is tied back into the broader risk complex. Early New York trading saw XRP slip around 4% to roughly $1.38, trading inside a $1.37–$1.47 intraday band and moving broadly in line with Bitcoin holding near $70,000. Crypto is again trading like a high-beta extension of U.S. tech and growth names. The violent swings and liquidations in that space last week left positioning fragile. With nonfarm payrolls due February 11 and U.S. CPI on February 13, plus Fedspeak around the same window, macro data has direct impact on how much leverage the market is comfortable carrying. A stronger-than-expected labor report or hotter inflation print keeps rate-cut expectations in check, supports the dollar and tightens conditions for high-beta assets. In that environment, any risk-off move in equities tends to spill straight into crypto, with XRP-USD reacting as part of the basket, regardless of whether there is token-specific news. On top of that, China asking banks to scale back U.S. Treasury exposure feeds the narrative of long-term de-dollarization and potential structural support for crypto over the multi-year horizon, but that theme does not offset short-term liquidity stress. Near term, macro is a volatility trigger, not a clear directional tailwind for XRP-USD.

XRP-USD event flow – XRP Community Day and how much it really matters

Ripple’s planned XRP Community Day on February 11 adds a token-specific catalyst into the same week as payrolls. The event connects holders with Ripple’s leadership around the XRP Ledger ecosystem and future roadmap. Historically, these events can shift sentiment for a few sessions, particularly if there are announcements on ecosystem growth, payments corridors or new integrations. In the current setup, with price sitting close to key supports and leverage already stressed, any positive surprise can amplify a bounce because order books are thin. The opposite also holds: if headlines are underwhelming or overshadowed by macro, Community Day becomes background noise. For positioning, the event is a volatility date rather than a structural driver, unless Ripple delivers something materially new on utility or regulatory clarity.

XRP-USD liquidity and market depth – thin books, faster moves in both directions

One of the core problems in the current XRP-USD environment is liquidity. Market depth has thinned, especially around the mid-book. When there is less size resting close to the current price, smaller orders move the market further. Analysts tracking depth metrics point out that this is not just a one-day anomaly; it is a trend. Reduced depth means sharp wicks in both directions and higher sensitivity to news, liquidations and large discretionary orders. That explains why XRP can move several percentage points on relatively modest flows and why rebounds from key levels can overshoot as quickly as selloffs. Thin liquidity also means stop cascades are more likely: once a key level gives way, there are fewer resting bids to absorb the flow, so the price has to run further to find the other side. This works against anyone trying to catch turns with tight risk and favors a strategy built around clearly defined, wider levels and staged scaling rather than aggressive chasing.

XRP-USD whales – $2.2 billion accumulation during the crash and what it signals

Behind the noise, large XRP holders have stepped in aggressively into weakness. Wallets in the 100 million–1 billion XRP bracket accumulated more than 1.6 billion tokens over roughly a week, a flow worth above $2.2 billion at current prices around the mid-$1.40s. That is not small speculative size; it is a decisive bet that the long-term story is intact despite the short-term technical damage. Whale buying in a liquidation phase performs two roles. First, it absorbs sell pressure, slowing the descent and helping the market stabilize around key supports like $1.11 and $1.00. Second, it rebuilds a concentrated ownership base that typically does not panic out on every headline. This flow does not guarantee an immediate trend change, but it does build a floor of stronger hands under price. When these larger holders are scaling in while short-term participants are being washed out, the structure of the holder base improves from a medium-term perspective.

XRP-USD long-term holders – distribution spike and confidence damage

While whales accumulated, long-term holders behaved very differently. XRP’s Liveliness indicator jumped during the crash, showing that older, dormant coins came back into circulation. That is classic distribution: coins that had been held through previous swings are now being spent or transferred. When long-duration holders sell into weakness, it usually means confidence in the prior up-trend has been damaged. That undermines the structural support that normally comes from sticky capital. If this distribution phase continues, it offsets some of the stabilizing effect of whale accumulation, because every wave of selling from older wallets needs to be absorbed by fresh demand. For XRP-USD, that split between aggressive whale buying and long-term holder distribution creates a tug-of-war. It supports the idea that the current zone can hold for now, but it also warns that any rally will face overhead supply from wallets that exited higher and may re-enter only at much lower prices or after extended consolidation.

XRP-USD derivatives – bearish positioning and the risk of another forced-selling leg

In the derivatives market, XRP is not priced as a clean bullish turnaround yet. Positioning and liquidation maps show roughly $399 million in shorts versus about $152 million in longs in the recent window. That skew signals that many participants are still leaning to the downside, either as directional bets or as hedges against spot holdings. If price pushes lower and retests the $1.00 area, that short bias can accelerate the move if it triggers long liquidations, because thin liquidity magnifies every forced exit. Conversely, if XRP-USD squeezes higher and starts to invalidate local lower highs, that same crowd becomes fuel on the upside as shorts are forced to cover. At this stage, with support only just holding and structure still technically bearish, the derivatives setup favors sharp, headline-driven spikes rather than a smooth grind. Risk management has to respect the possibility of a fast move back toward the recent 15-month low while the market is still positioned for weakness.

XRP-USD key levels – $1.91 resistance, $1.42 and $1.11 support, and the $0.70–$0.50 accumulation zone

The current XRP-USD map is defined by a few clear levels, not by vague zones. On the downside, immediate support sits around $1.42, the area currently being defended. Below that, the weekly chart shows the flush to roughly $1.11, which marked the lowest print in about fifteen months and stopped just above the $1.00 psychological line. If $1.42 fails cleanly, a retest of the $1.11–$1.00 band is a realistic scenario, and any breakdown through $1.00 opens the door to the deeper accumulation area between $0.70 and $0.50 that technicians have flagged as the strongest historical support. That lower band is where long-duration accumulation makes far more sense on a multi-year view, because it aligns with prior basing activity and a reset of sentiment. On the upside, the first meaningful target for any rebound is the $1.91 region. Regaining and holding above that resistance would confirm that the current move is more than just a dead-cat bounce and would start to repair daily and weekly structure. Only once price is above that band and converts it back into support does a sustainable push toward $2.00 come into play. Until then, every rally into the $1.50–$1.90 range is guilty until proven innocent.

XRP-USD sentiment – $10 narrative versus the $1 reality

The XRP community is already talking about $10 again, especially with altseason narratives returning every few weeks. The chart does not support a straight-line jump from today’s prices in the mid-$1.40s to that target. XRP is still roughly 70% below its previous all-time high near $3.28 and recently printed a 15-month low close to $1.11. Historically, the token has endured a 96% drawdown (from $3.28 to around $0.10), which makes another full-scale collapse of that magnitude less likely now given a more mature market structure and institutional interest, but not impossible if liquidity completely evaporates. Current price action is about defending $1 and potentially the $0.70–$0.50 band below, not about racing to double-digit levels. The $10 story is a long-run optionality play anchored in a full altseason, regulatory clarity and real-world usage growth, not a short-term base case. The near-term reality is a market that needs to clear supply, rebuild confidence and confirm that whales are right and long-term distributors are wrong.

XRP-USD stance – short-term bias, risk map and buy/sell/hold decision

Putting all of this together, XRP-USD sits in a conflicted zone. Structurally, the break below $1.20 and the failed demand zones above price leave the daily and 4H trends biased lower. Macro adds volatility, not a clean tailwind, with payrolls and CPI capable of triggering another risk-off leg that takes XRP back toward $1.11–$1.00. Derivatives positioning is still skewed bearish, so another wave of forced selling is possible if support fails. At the same time, whales have quietly accumulated more than $2.2 billion of XRP into this weakness, building a capital base that can stabilize price and fuel a later recovery. Long-term holders distributing into the drop show that confidence has been damaged and that overhead supply will not disappear quickly. In this setup, chasing upside near $1.40–$1.50 after a 31% monthly drop and before macro risk passes is not attractive. The more rational stance is a Hold for existing exposure with a tactically bearish short-term bias, watching $1.42 and then $1.11–$1.00 as critical defenses. Fresh, aggressive buying only makes sense closer to the $1.11 retest or, ideally, if the market offers entries in the $0.70–$0.50 accumulation zone. A decisive weekly close back above $1.91 would be the trigger to flip from defensive posture toward a more constructive, bullish view on XRP-USD.

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