Solana Price Forecast: SOL-USD Clings to $80 as Bears Target $75–$65 Zone

Solana (SOL-USD) – breakdown from triple digits into the low-80s

Solana (SOL-USD) – from $120–$130 to $81–$85 in a straight-line slide

Solana (SOL-USD) has shifted from a controlled pullback to a clear downtrend.
Late January trades clustered around $120–$130. Price then cracked $117, slipped toward $96, and is now rotating in the low-$80s, with prints around $92.40 on the way down and fresh lows near $81–$82.
The structure is a falling channel that started in November. Losing the $98 pivot removed the mid-range floor. Breaking $85 turned that range into a confirmed continuation move.
All key moving averages sit above spot. The 50-day is sliding around $105. The 100- and 200-day are even higher. That positioning shows a market trending lower rather than pausing inside a sideways band.

Solana (SOL-USD) – 150% jump in unstaking pushes more coins into circulation

The staking side of Solana (SOL-USD) has flipped from support to pressure.
In the week ending November 24, staking wallets added more than 6.34 million SOL. That was a textbook accumulation wave and matched strong confidence at higher prices.
From mid-January, the flow reversed. For the week ending January 19, about 449,000 SOL were unstaked. By February 2, weekly unstaking was roughly 1.15 million SOL. That is an increase of about 150% in two weeks.
Once unstaked, those tokens move back into liquid supply. They can reach exchanges quickly and join the sell side. When that happens while price is already at the lower band of a bearish channel, the odds of a sharp flush increase.

Solana (SOL-USD) – exchange flows show softer accumulation and more sellable float

Exchange data backs the same message for Solana (SOL-USD).
At the start of February, 30-day net exchange flows were near –2.25 million SOL. That signalled aggressive withdrawals and firm spot accumulation.
By February 3, this metric had moved to about –1.66 million SOL. Outflows remain negative, so some buying is still present. But the pace of accumulation has cooled by almost 26% in just two days.
That means more unstaked coins are appearing while the bid is less aggressive. Supply is growing at the margin, demand is cooling, and the buffer that protected price earlier in the move is weaker. Any new wave of selling cuts deeper into order books.

Solana (SOL-USD) – short-term holders grow, fast money dominates near the lows

Wallet-age data confirms that short-horizon activity is shaping Solana (SOL-USD).
The one-day to one-week holding cohort increased from about 3.51% to 5.06% between February 2 and 3. This slice represents addresses that buy swings and exit quickly.
A similar pattern appeared in late January. On January 27, this fast group held about 5.26% when price was around $127. By January 30, their share had fallen to 4.31% as price dropped to $117, an 8% decline.
That sequence shows a simple loop. Short-term participants build positions during bounces and then exit into weakness, deepening the downside. With that cohort growing again, any rally is at risk of being sold quickly rather than forming a durable base.

Solana (SOL-USD) – futures open interest climbs as price drops and funding turns negative

Derivatives are now dictating a large part of the tape for Solana (SOL-USD).
Open interest in futures and perpetual contracts is rising while price moves lower. That is new positioning, not old exposure being closed.
Perpetual funding has moved below zero. Negative funding means those positioned short are paying the long side to keep the trade open. That is a clear indication that the futures book is skewed toward bearish bets.
Leverage is high across these contracts. Many positions are not simple, fully-funded exposure, they are geared trades. That profile creates a fragile structure. If price continues lower, margin calls can trigger forced selling and accelerate the drop.
If a strong catalyst appears to the upside, shorts can be squeezed. Covering in size inside thin liquidity can launch a violent counter-move. The positioning is set for volatility in both directions, with the current tilt still to the downside.

Solana (SOL-USD) – technical map: under $85 keeps $80, $75 and $65 on the radar

From a chart perspective, Solana (SOL-USD) remains in a clean downtrend.
Price has respected a pattern of lower highs and lower lows since November. The falling channel that started after the prior peak is intact.
The first key shelf around $98 failed decisively. The next support near $85 has now also broken, with spot moving around $84 and then sliding toward $82 and below. As long as price remains under $85, the trend points lower.
Short-term, the next level is $80. If that line fails to attract strong buying, the chart opens toward the $72–$75 band, which is the next cluster of historical demand.
Earlier work on the full depth of the channel pointed to a potential drop into the $67–$65 area. That would complete roughly a 30% breakdown from the former $96–$98 support region.
Momentum indicators fit that story. RSI is below 50, so downside pressure dominates, but it is not yet deeply oversold. That leaves room for further declines before mean-reversion pressure builds. MACD remains negative with no clear bullish convergence, so downside momentum is still alive rather than exhausted.

Solana (SOL-USD) – MVRV at 0.65 and realized price above spot signal deep stress, not euphoria

Valuation metrics underline how far Solana (SOL-USD) has reset.
The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio sits near 0.65. That is the lowest level since September 2023 and close to a two-and-a-half-year extreme.
An MVRV below 1 means the average holder is under water. Market value is below the realized cost basis. Most addresses are sitting on unrealized losses.
Historically, such deep compression has lined up more often with late-stage corrections than with the start of fresh impulsive down legs. When most participants are in the red, the urge to dump can fade as people avoid locking in losses. Selling slows and the market moves toward a stabilization zone, even if price still drifts lower.
The realized price itself also remains above spot for Solana (SOL-USD). In prior cycles, that alignment has coincided with macro bottoming regions. March 2025 displayed a similar pattern before a transition into accumulation and then a sustained recovery.
The current background rhymes with that history. It does not guarantee that the low is already in, but it shows the move has travelled far from euphoric territory.

Solana (SOL-USD) – 5 million SOL bought into weakness show strong hands still building exposure

Despite the selloff, not all large holders are retreating from Solana (SOL-USD).
From December 2025 to early February, around 5 million SOL have been accumulated. At recent prices from the low-$90s into the low-$80s, that block represents roughly $455 million in exposure.
Exchange balances confirm that over this broader window, coins continued to leave centralized platforms, even as the most recent days show slower outflows.
This pattern points to methodical buying by larger accounts. They are using weakness to expand positions rather than trying to exit. In previous cycles, such steady absorption during declines has often preceded medium-term trend reversals.
The timing, however, is uncertain. A market can trade sideways and test patience for months before price finally reflects the underlying positioning shift.

Solana (SOL-USD) – ETF chatter and ecosystem strength muted by broad risk-off across crypto

The macro context is adding pressure to Solana (SOL-USD).
Bitcoin has dropped back through the high-$60,000s into the mid-$60,000s. Ethereum has slipped below $2,000. Large parts of the altcoin complex are underperforming as capital rotates to cash or the most liquid names.
Discussions around Solana-linked exchange-traded products and a strong development ecosystem are still real. They support the long-term story, but they are not translating into sustained spot demand during this phase of risk-off behaviour.
Solana has effectively been treated as a high-beta expression of crypto risk. When conditions tighten, flows retreat from assets like Solana (SOL-USD) first. The failure to hold above $100 signalled waning confidence. The subsequent break of $85 confirms that buyers are not yet willing to defend prior levels just because the narrative is positive.

Solana (SOL-USD) – near-term playbook, key levels to watch and final stance

Short-term, the roadmap for Solana (SOL-USD) is defined by a few simple thresholds.
Staying below $85 keeps risk skewed toward a retest of $80. A brief pause above that line is possible, but without a surge in spot volume and a clear slowdown in new shorts, that area may not hold at the first attempt.
If $80 fails, the $72–$75 region becomes the next focus. A break there opens the way to the deeper $67–$65 zone implied by the full depth of the downward channel from November. With funding negative and leveraged shorts in size, any move into those lower bands could be fast if liquidations cascade.
On the other side, the first sign that pressure is easing would be a firm hold above $80 followed by a recovery through $85–$90. A decisive move back over $98 with healthy spot demand and stabilizing open interest would mark the first serious attempt to repair the damage.
Clearing about $104 and then $117 would confirm that Solana (SOL-USD) is breaking out of the descending pattern. Only with a weekly close above roughly $122 does the chart fully validate the bullish wedge projection toward $150–$156.
Given the current mix of heavy short positioning, deep on-chain undervaluation, accelerating unstaking and ongoing accumulation by larger holders, the stance that fits the data is a Hold with a bearish short-term bias.
For existing exposure, this is a zone where forced selling at any price is not justified by the structure, but adding size aggressively before the $80 and $72–$75 levels are tested carries real drawdown risk.
For those looking for fresh entries, the higher-conviction window opens only once Solana (SOL-USD) proves it can reclaim and hold key resistance bands instead of treating every bounce as another chance for shorts to reload.

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