Stock Market Holds Steady as Inflation Data and Trade Deals Drive Investor Focus

U.S. Equities Edge Near Record Highs Ahead of Inflation Data

U.S. equity benchmarks opened the week in a narrow range, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) slipping 22 points to 44,019.21 (-0.35%), the S&P 500 (SPX) marginally lower at 6,386.08 (-0.05%), and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) inching 0.10% higher to 21,472.43. Traders are positioning ahead of a critical week for economic indicators, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) due Tuesday and Producer Price Index (PPI) Thursday. The data will be pivotal for the Federal Reserve’s September rate decision, where futures currently price in an 87% probability of a cut. Elevated inflation could derail expectations, especially as macro risks—tariffs, slowing growth, and high valuations—intersect with seasonally weaker market conditions.

Tech Sector Under Spotlight: Nvidia, AMD, Intel in Policy Crossfire

The semiconductor space remains at the epicenter of market debate after Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) agreed to remit 15% of revenue from certain AI chips sold to China to the U.S. government in exchange for export licenses. The chips—Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308—had been restricted under national security controls. The arrangement, unprecedented in trade policy, effectively monetizes export clearance. NVDA traded at $183.24 (+0.28%) while AMD slipped over 1.5%. Meanwhile, Intel (INTC) gained 4.31% to $20.81 as CEO Lip-Bu Tan prepared for a White House meeting following political scrutiny over China ties. The chip sector’s direction now hinges on tariff negotiations, with the U.S.-China trade truce set to expire Tuesday.

Corporate Moves: Paramount’s $7.7B UFC Rights Deal

Paramount Skydance (PSKY) surged premarket after securing a $7.7B, seven-year exclusive U.S. broadcasting contract for the UFC starting 2026. The deal includes 43 annual events on Paramount+ and select CBS broadcasts, ending UFC’s pay-per-view model in the U.S. This strategic pivot aims to drive subscriber growth in a competitive streaming market. Shares last traded at $10.46 (-0.52%) as investors assessed integration following Paramount’s merger with Skydance.

Earnings Surprises and Disappointments

• Micron Technology (MU) jumped 3.67% to $123.25 after raising Q4 revenue guidance to $11.1–$11.3B, citing stronger DRAM pricing and execution, with EPS now projected at $2.78–$2.92 versus a prior $2.35–$2.65 range.

• Monday.com (MNDY) cratered 27.14% to $180.71 despite beating revenue forecasts at $299M, as EPS of $0.03 fell far short of consensus $0.20. Operating margin contracted to -4%.

• C3.ai (AI) collapsed 23.27% to $16.98 after guiding Q1 revenue to $70.2–$70.4M, down 19% YoY, and doubling expected operating losses. Analysts flagged deteriorating recurring revenue trends.

Commodity and Currency Watch: Gold, Oil, Dollar Index

Gold futures (GC=F) plunged 2.50% to $3,404/oz after the U.S. Customs and Border Protection ruled that 100oz and 1kg bullion bars would be subject to tariffs, narrowing the U.S.–London spread to under $60/oz from over $100 last week. WTI crude (CL=F) edged down 0.11% to $63.81, while Brent (BZ=F) held stable. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit 99.32 intraday, its highest since August 1, supported by safe-haven demand ahead of Jackson Hole and trade negotiations.

Sector Movers: Cannabis, Crypto, Retail

Cannabis names rallied sharply after reports that President Trump may reclassify marijuana as a lower-risk drug. Tilray Brands (TLRY) surged over 12% to $0.7268, Canopy Growth (CGC) gained 19%, and Cronos Group (CRON) climbed 11%. In crypto, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) advanced 1.26% to $120,169, lifting Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR). Retail lagged—Target (TGT) fell 1.28% to $104.05 as analysts warned of another weak quarter amid margin pressure from Walmart competition.

Investor Sentiment: Bullish Tilt with Valuation Concerns

Bank of America’s fund manager survey shows the most bullish positioning since February, with only 5% expecting a global hard landing. However, 91% of respondents see U.S. equities as overvalued, and 45% view the “Magnificent Seven” trade as overcrowded. AI remains a dominant narrative, with over half of managers believing it is already enhancing productivity and not yet in bubble territory.

Key Risks and Near-Term Market Drivers

With tariff deadlines, critical inflation prints, and the Jackson Hole symposium all converging this month, volatility risk remains elevated. The market’s resilience—evident in Nasdaq’s record highs—faces an immediate test from CPI/PPI readings that could recalibrate rate-cut bets. Sector rotation is likely, with defensives gaining on hotter inflation and growth outperformers leading if disinflation holds.

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