Stock Market Today: AI Fears Hit Nasdaq as S&P 500 and Dow Struggle While AMAT and Rivian Rip Higher

Stock Market Today – CPI relief collides with AI shock across S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq

S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq – indices flat intraday but locked into a weak week

The three big U.S. benchmarks are drifting but not recovering. The S&P 500 trades around 6,830–6,850, up only about 0.1–0.2% today, yet still more than 1% lower for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average holds near 49,400–49,500 with a roughly 0.0–0.1% daily move, again down over 1% week-to-date. The Nasdaq Composite sits around 22,550–22,600, off roughly 0.1–0.4% on the day and staring at a weekly loss close to 2%, its longest losing streak since 2022. Market breadth is soft: the Russell 2000 is up about 0.3–0.4% today near 2,625–2,630, but that bounce is not enough to erase earlier damage. The tape is classic risk-off rotation hiding inside flattish index prints.

January CPI at 2.4% and 2.5% core – disinflation resumes without freeing the Fed

The January CPI report is the macro pivot. Headline prices rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, below the 0.3% and 2.5% economists expected. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.3% on the month and 2.5% over the last year, exactly matching forecasts. That pulls headline inflation back toward the 2.4–2.5% range seen in mid-2025, despite post-tariff noise, and confirms that the December 2.7% print was not the start of a re-acceleration. It is a clear step toward price stability, but not yet a clean victory for the Fed.

Treasury yields, Fed cuts and dollar index DXY near 97 – bonds bid while cuts stay priced for June

Rates react more aggressively than stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield falls to roughly 4.07%, down a few basis points on the day. The 2-year sits around 3.42–3.43%, also lower by 3 bp, signaling that front-end traders are nudging rate-cut odds higher but not capitulating to a rapid easing cycle. Fed-funds futures now imply just above a 50% probability of at least one 25 bp cut by the June 17 meeting, up from just under 49% before the CPI release. The share of bets on 50 bp or more of cuts by June climbs from about 13% to nearly 20%. March remains a near-zero-probability cut. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades just under 97, up about 0.07% on the day but off intraday highs. The message from bonds and FX is “controlled disinflation,” not “emergency easing.”

AI disruption trade – banks, software, real estate, Disney and Netflix on the defensive

AI anxiety is driving the most violent sector rotation. Financials with fee and advisory models exposed to automation rerating lower, with Charles Schwab down around 11% this week and Morgan Stanley off roughly 7%. Enterprise software is being repriced as clients weigh AI-driven productivity against license spend; Workday has dropped about 10% over the same period. Commercial real estate, where AI threatens office demand and reshapes logistics, is taking a direct hit: CBRE Group has lost roughly 19% week-to-date. Media is no refuge. Walt Disney is down about 5% this week and Netflix is roughly 7% lower as markets reassess long-term content and advertising economics under generative AI. The theme is simple and brutal: if a business model looks exposed to AI compression and doesn’t have a clear data or distribution moat, the market is not waiting for proof.

Magnificent 7 and AI-linked tech – from index leaders to short-term drag on the Nasdaq Composite

The AI scare turns the “Magnificent Seven” from a cushion into a drag on the Nasdaq. All seven megacaps ended the prior session lower, reinforcing the idea that investors are no longer willing to pay peak multiples for AI narratives without clearer incremental profits. The group has been the main engine behind the Nasdaq 100 for two years; when they roll over together, the index cannot hide the damage. With the S&P 500 negative year-to-date after Thursday’s slump and the Nasdaq 100 off around 2%, the leadership structure is being questioned, even though earnings from many of these names remain solid. The new bar is not revenue growth, but proof that AI spend translates into durable, high-margin cash flows.

Hyperscaler AI capex above $600 billion – Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft keep the spending firehose open

Capex guidance from the hyperscalers sets the structural backdrop. Combined, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms and Microsoft are planning to spend more than $600 billion in 2026, up from just over $350 billion in 2025, with the bulk allocated to AI infrastructure. This 70%-plus year-on-year capex jump pushes an enormous order book toward data-center builders, network suppliers and chip ecosystems. Bears argue that such spending cannot be sustained and will collapse once competitive positioning stabilizes. More constructive investors expect a plateau at elevated levels followed by slower, but still positive growth. For the indices, this split means tech remains the dominant macro factor: every earnings season will be a referendum on whether that $600 billion is value-creating or value-destroying.

Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) – AI memory cycle and guidance make it a clear outperformer

Applied Materials (NASDAQ:AMAT) is the cleanest winner in today’s tape. The stock jumps about 11–12% intraday to the mid-$360s, adding to a roughly 27% year-to-date gain. The company delivered adjusted earnings of $2.38 per share on $7.01 billion in revenue, topping expectations for $2.20 and $6.87 billion. More important is the forward view: management guides second-quarter sales to about $7.65 billion, plus or minus $500 million, versus consensus around $7.01 billion, and projects adjusted profit near $2.64 per share, plus or minus $0.20, compared with expectations of $2.28. The driver is straightforward: a global memory shortage and rising investment from memory producers expanding capacity for AI workloads. In a market punishing perceived AI losers, AMAT represents the opposite – a company that earns more the more aggressive AI capex becomes. On these numbers and guidance, the stock justifies a bullish stance.

Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) – narrower losses, R2 road map and software leverage

Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) is another standout on the day. The stock climbs roughly 20% to around $16.80–$17.00 after a stronger-than-feared fourth quarter. Revenue came in at $1.286 billion versus expectations near $1.26 billion, even though that figure is roughly 27% lower than a year ago as regulatory credits, tax incentives and pricing tailwinds fade. The company posted an adjusted loss per share of $0.59, beating estimates for a $0.69 loss, and reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $465 million versus forecasts around $568 million. Crucially, Rivian guides 2026 deliveries to 62,000–67,000 vehicles, implying growth of about 47–59% over 2025. The upcoming R2 midsize EV is scheduled for customer deliveries in the second quarter after validation builds rolled off the line in January. The firm also records a $120 million gross profit for the quarter, split between a $59 million loss in automotive and a $179 million gain from software and services tied to its joint venture with Volkswagen. The equity story is shifting from pure hardware burn to a mixed hardware-plus-software model. Risk is high, but the risk-reward after this reset skews constructive rather than deeply negative.

Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) – AI search upgrade and valuation reset after a difficult year

Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB) is back on the buy lists for some analysts. The stock trades around $123, up nearly 6% today after a broker upgrade to a buy rating and a higher price target of $154 from $128, pointing to roughly 33% upside from current levels. That call comes after a painful stretch: shares have fallen about 18% in the last 12 months and are down roughly 15% year-to-date before today’s move. The thesis behind the upgrade is that AI-driven search and recommendation tools can materially improve matching efficiency and monetization on the platform, offsetting competitive and regulatory pressures. With the stock now reflecting a year of de-rating, the market is giving more weight to AI as an opportunity for ABNB rather than a threat. On balance, today’s price action supports a cautiously bullish view, with execution on AI-enabled product features the key variable.

Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) – revenue miss, cautious outlook and AI pressure on ad budgets

Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) sits on the opposite side of the AI ledger. The stock slides roughly 19–20% to around $14.80 after management issued a softer-than-expected revenue outlook. For the first quarter, the company guides revenue to a $951–971 million range, short of the roughly $980 million analysts anticipated. Fourth-quarter revenue of $1.32 billion was essentially in line with forecasts of $1.33 billion, and user metrics look impressive: monthly active users reached 619 million, up from 553 million a year earlier. The problem is monetization. Advertisers are reallocating budgets toward platforms perceived as having stronger AI tools, more granular targeting or deeper commerce integrations. Pinterest’s user growth shows the product remains relevant, but with revenue guidance lagging expectations, the market is discounting slower yield per user and tougher competition. At current levels the stock is in “prove-it” territory; from a risk perspective the bias is bearish until management demonstrates that AI is an edge, not a headwind.

DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG), Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) and Maplebear/Instacart (NASDAQ:CART) – guidance reset and stock-specific catalysts

Among the more volatile names on the day, DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG) drops sharply, with the stock down around 17% pre-market and more than 10% after the open near $22–23. The company posted a strong fourth quarter on the surface, with earnings of $0.25 per share versus $0.15 expected and revenue of $1.99 billion versus $1.98 billion. The issue is the outlook: 2026 revenue is forecast between $6.5 billion and $6.9 billion, well below consensus around $7.31 billion. Investors are pricing in slower incremental growth relative to past years and higher spending to defend share. That combination compresses the multiple. In contrast, Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) rallies roughly 15% after an analyst lifted the price target to $118 from $106, implying about 42% upside from yesterday’s close. The company beat fourth-quarter expectations and issued upbeat guidance, convincing markets that its ad and streaming platform remains a viable alternative in a crowded CTV ecosystem. Maplebear (NASDAQ:CART), better known as Instacart, trades higher by around 12% pre-market after revenue rose 12% year-on-year to $992 million, beating estimates, even though earnings were hit by a $60 million FTC settlement over alleged pricing tactics. CART remains a tactical name, but today’s move shows that beating on top-line and absorbing regulatory hits can still be rewarded when expectations are low.

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) – $5.2 trillion 2025 volume and subscription growth underscore structural role in crypto

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) gains modestly, up around 2% in after-hours trading, but the numbers behind the move matter for the broader crypto complex. The company reported 2025 trading volume of $5.2 trillion, up 156% versus the prior year, signaling a resurgence in both retail and institutional activity. Subscription and services revenue reached $2.8 billion, up from $2.3 billion in 2024, even though total quarterly revenue came in a touch light versus expectations. That revenue mix shift – more recurring, less purely transactional – is precisely what long-term holders wanted to see. For the AI-disrupted equity market, COIN represents another theme: platforms that intermediate volatile, high-engagement assets can grow even when traditional sectors wrestle with automation risk.

Gold around $5,000 and silver near $78–79 – metals rebound after margin calls and algorithmic selling

In commodities, precious metals are staging an aggressive rebound after a violent shake-out. Gold futures (GC=F) trade near $5,015–5,020 an ounce, up about 1.3–1.4% today, recovering part of a 3.2% plunge in the previous session – the biggest single-day drop in about a week. Silver sits near $77–79 an ounce, up roughly 2–4% on the day after its own sharp decline. The prior sell-off coincided with the equity rout and appears tied to forced liquidations and systematic selling: investors holding both stocks and metals were likely hit with margin calls, while commodity trading advisers and other model-driven funds cut length as prices broke technical levels. Today’s rebound, ahead of and then alongside the softer CPI print, suggests underlying demand for hedges remains intact. With inflation running at 2.4% and real yields easing, gold still looks supported on dips rather than in a blow-off top, and silver’s beta remains higher but directionally similar.

Bitcoin near $67,000 and Ether up almost 3% – crypto responds positively to softer CPI but remains in a deep drawdown

Crypto assets are catching a bid alongside other risk assets. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) trades around $67,000–68,000, up roughly 1.5–3.8% on the day depending on the venue, but still far below the more than $120,000 peak reached a few months ago. Ether (ETH-USD) is stronger, up close to 3%. The milder CPI reading eases fears of a tighter-for-longer Fed and supports the narrative that real yields could drift lower over the course of 2026. That backdrop is constructive for long-duration, high-volatility assets like BTC and ETH. However, with Bitcoin still in what technically counts as a deep bear market relative to its high, positioning remains fragile. The tape says “stabilizing” rather than “new bull leg” for now.

Europe’s FTSE 100, DAX, CAC 40, IBEX 35 and STOXX 600 – AI jitters, rates and earnings keep regional indices under pressure

European equities are mixed but skewed lower as the region digests the same AI and rate themes playing out in the U.S. The FTSE 100 trades near 10,394, down about 0.1%. The DAX sits around 24,842, off roughly 0.04%. France’s CAC 40 is weaker at about 8,286, down 0.7%. Italy’s FTSE MIB underperforms, sliding about 2.3% to roughly 45,150. Spain’s IBEX 35 drops around 1.3% to roughly 17,670. The broad STOXX Europe 600 index trades near 615, about 0.5% lower. Stock-specific stories still matter: French aerospace group Safran gains around 7% after upbeat quarterly results, bucking the trend and highlighting that companies delivering clean earnings and strong guidance can still outperform even as macro jitters rise.

Asia and MSCI Asia Pacific – Samsung, TSMC and memory names turn U.S. AI fears into regional upside

In Asia, equity markets have turned U.S. AI worries into a tailwind. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up more than 12% in 2026, sharply outperforming U.S. benchmarks that are now negative or barely positive for the year. The reason is positioning within the AI value chain. Asian markets carry heavy weights in upstream hardware and memory, not in the software and service names currently under attack in the U.S. Surging memory prices and capacity expansion have powered names like Samsung Electronics and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, whose foundry position makes them essential to every serious AI roadmap. While the U.S. debates whether hyperscaler capex is excessive, Asian suppliers simply book the orders. That dynamic explains why global funds are rotating out of expensive U.S. AI narratives and into tangible cash-flow generators across the region.

Safe-haven currencies, yen, Swiss franc and DXY – rethinking what ‘safety’ looks like after a volatile year

Traditional safe-haven FX has not behaved like a one-way hedge over the past year, and investors are adjusting. The U.S. dollar, Japanese yen and Swiss franc have all seen significant volatility as interest-rate differentials, carry trades and central-bank signals drove sharp swings. With the DXY near 97 and Treasury yields around 4.07% on the 10-year and 3.43% on the 2-year, the dollar still offers yield, but not as much as in late 2025. The yen and franc remain sensitive to policy paths at the Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank as well as to positioning in global carry trades. After this CPI report, the dollar softens modestly, but there is no wholesale exodus. The lesson for portfolio construction is that “safe” now means diversified sources of risk rather than blind reliance on any single currency.

Overall stance for U.S. equities – earnings resilience versus AI risk argues for Hold with a short-term bearish bias

Pulling everything together, the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow are stuck between supportive macro data and disruptive micro narratives. CPI at 2.4% headline and 2.5% core, a 10-year yield near 4.07% and June cut odds above 50% form a decent backdrop for risk assets. At the same time, AI-driven repricing is hitting financials, software, real estate and parts of media, while megacap tech faces a valuation ceiling after a $600-billion-plus capex ramp. Outperformers like Applied Materials (AMAT) and Rivian (RIVN) show that investors are still willing to pay for clear AI infrastructure and credible growth, but the market is no longer forgiving vague AI stories or stretched guidance, as Pinterest (PINS) and DraftKings (DKNG) demonstrate. With indices near record territory, volatility elevated and sector dispersion extreme, the clean call for broad U.S. equities is Hold with a short-term bearish tilt. Upside requires proof that AI spending converts into sustainable earnings and that disinflation continues without a growth scare; downside risk remains significant for names on the wrong side of that divide.

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