XRP Price Forecast: Can XRP-USD Defend $1.35 Support After a 30% Slide?

XRP Price Forecast – Trading Between $1.30 Support And $1.50 Resistance

XRP-USD trades around $1.35–$1.42 after a collapse of roughly 60% from the $3.50–$3.56 peak in 2025. The last month alone erased about a third of its value, pulling price down from above $2.00 toward the $1.30 region. The prior leg bottomed near $1.13, so the market is still well off the absolute lows but stuck in a heavy corrective phase. Right now the tape shows a clear range: buyers defend $1.30–$1.35, while every attempt to push through $1.40–$1.41 gets sold, with a thicker resistance band at $1.50–$1.55 and a larger ceiling near $1.78.

XRP-USD – Price Zone Around $1.35–$1.42

Spot price spends most of the time chopping between $1.35 and $1.42. Bounces toward $1.40–$1.41 fail fast, telling you short-term money uses strength to reduce exposure rather than to add. On the downside, $1.35 is the first line that keeps getting tested and defended. Below it, $1.30 is the real pivot: break and hold under $1.30 on a daily close and the market will immediately start to probe $1.25 and then $1.20. Above current levels, the first realistic upside objective is $1.40–$1.43; only then $1.50–$1.55 comes back into play.

XRP-USD – Moving Averages, Momentum And Short-Term Trend

On the daily chart XRP-USD is pinned underneath every meaningful moving average. The 20-day EMA sits near $1.55, the 50-day near $1.76, the 100-day around $1.96, and the 200-day close to $2.16. All four slope down, stacked one above the other, forming a layered resistance block between roughly $1.55 and $2.20. Daily RSI is around 32–33, close to oversold but not turning convincingly higher. That combination means downside energy is fading, but there is no proof yet that buyers control the tape. On the one-hour chart price tracks a descending channel, with repeated rejections around $1.39–$1.40 and tests of the lower band near $1.35. Intraday trend tools only flip positive once XRP breaks and holds above roughly $1.39–$1.40; until then the path of least resistance stays mildly lower.

XRP-USD – Key Support Levels At $1.35, $1.30, $1.25 And $1.20

The support ladder is tight and very clear. Around $1.35 you have the lower edge of the current intraday channel, where fast money tries to buy the dip. At $1.30 you hit the core of the present consolidation box; a daily close below $1.30 confirms that this is not just sideways digestion but a fresh downside extension. Under that, $1.25 is the next historical demand area and the base highlighted by several model-driven views of the market. If XRP slides into $1.25 and stabilises, that zone becomes the natural spot for medium-term accumulation with defined risk. Lose $1.25 and the market will test $1.20 quickly. A break of $1.20 does not just add a few percentage points of downside; it changes the entire structure into a broad distribution, with the risk of a slow bleed toward the low-$1.00 region.

XRP-USD – Resistance Ladder From $1.40 To $1.78

On the upside the first cap sits at $1.40–$1.41, where every intraday breakout has been knocked back. Above that, $1.43 lines up with major moving averages on mid-range charts and would be the first real signal that sellers are losing control. If XRP manages a daily close above $1.43, attention jumps to the $1.50–$1.55 band. $1.50 acted as support earlier in February; now it behaves as resistance, and the 20-day EMA near $1.55 reinforces the barrier. A sustained base above $1.55 would show the corrective phase is close to exhaustion. Only after clearing $1.55 does the market start to seriously target the $1.78 region, which is where the prior advance stalled and where the higher-time-frame moving average cluster sits.

XRP-USD – Derivatives Positioning, Open Interest And Leverage

Futures and options data confirm that the last leg down flushed a lot of speculative positioning. Open interest has dropped from a peak near $10.94 billion to about $2.26 billion, roughly an 80% reduction in notional exposure. Daily volume has shrunk close to 20% in the latest session, running around $4.0 billion. That means traders are less aggressive and fewer participants are willing to swing big size. Long/short ratios, however, remain elevated above 2.0 on major venues, with one leading exchange around 2.30 and another just over 2.10. Top accounts still carry more notional in longs, roughly $18–19 million, versus shorts around $13 million. So the book is still leaning bullish even after the drawdown. Falling open interest with falling price usually means traders are closing positions rather than opening fresh shorts, which is typical late-correction behaviour. The risk is clear: if XRP breaks $1.30 and $1.25 while leverage remains skewed long, another wave of forced liquidations can quickly accelerate a drop toward $1.20–$1.10.

XRP-USD – ETF Flows, Institutional Activity And Liquidity

The new XRP products on the exchange-traded side have not created a persistent institutional bid yet. Net assets under management sit just under $1.0 billion, based on cumulative inflows of about $1.23 billion combined with recent redemptions and market moves. The latest flow snapshot shows zero new money on the day, underlining that larger allocators are cautious. Open interest in XRP-linked derivatives has been trending down since the summer peak, in line with the fading speculative appetite across the market. Structurally, there is still optionality: market commentators highlight that a dedicated XRP ETF from a top-tier global manager would be a structural event, opening easier regulated access and deeper liquidity. The view from that camp is that such a filing could trigger a 100% move from depressed levels as portfolios rotate beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. That scenario is not visible in today’s tape, but it sits in the background as a potential future driver.

XRP-USD – Ripple’s Long-Term Vision And Valuation Gap

On the corporate side, Ripple’s management is openly talking about the possibility of turning the company into a $1 trillion business over time. With the latest funding round placing the firm near $40 billion, that target would mean a 25x ramp in enterprise value. XRP sits at the centre of that vision. Leadership has described the token as the “reason for existence” and “north star” for the organisation, tying the success of the business directly to the health of the XRP ecosystem. Despite that ambition, XRP still trades about 62% below its $3.56 all-time high. The gap between the story and the spot price is wide. If execution around cross-border payments, liquidity products and institutional rails continues to gain traction, today’s discount offers upside torque. If, instead, the market decides the trillion-dollar talk is more branding than concrete trajectory, the next deep crypto downturn will punish the token harder than the narrative suggests.

XRP-USD – Partnerships, Tokenization And Real-World Assets

Ripple is pushing to embed XRP and the XRP Ledger as infrastructure for tokenization and settlements. A recent deal with a UK insurer and asset manager focuses on bringing funds and other real-world assets on-chain via XRPL. The plan is to tokenise traditional vehicles, improve time and cost efficiency, and anchor more activity on the ledger. The partnership also supports Ripple’s geographic expansion in the UK and continental Europe. The market’s short-term reaction to that headline was muted: XRP traded lower on the day and now hovers around $1.35–$1.36, proving that macro risk and technical levels are driving price action more than single news items. Over a multi-year horizon, however, growing flows of tokenised assets on XRPL would deepen utility and transactional demand for XRP, and that eventually feeds into valuation once the risk cycle turns.

XRP-USD – Sentiment, Risk-Off Backdrop And Market Psychology

The wider crypto complex is under pressure. Bitcoin trades back below $67,000 after several failed pushes toward prior highs, and fear indicators in the BTC market are back near levels last seen around the March 2023 stress zone. XRP underperforms even inside that backdrop, still more than 60% under its record high despite Ripple’s deal flow and the long-term payment narrative. Derivatives data tell the same story: open interest drifting lower, volume dropping almost 20% on the day, and leverage still tilted to the long side. That mix signals fatigue. Participants are tired of chasing upside, but not yet fully washed out. For XRP this produces noisy swings. Rallies to $1.40–$1.43 are sold as holders exit on strength, while dips to $1.30–$1.35 attract bottom-fishers but do not convert into trending moves. Headlines around ETFs, partnerships or corporate valuation shifts spark short spikes, yet the medium-term direction remains chained to macro risk appetite and Bitcoin’s path.

XRP-USD – Scenario Map: Bullish Rebuild Versus Deeper Reset

The price map now splits into two clean scenarios. In the constructive case, XRP defends $1.30–$1.35, the descending channel breaks to the upside, and price closes above $1.40 and then $1.43 with visible volume. That opens a path toward $1.50–$1.55, where reclaiming the 20-day EMA would be the first firm sign that the correction is burning out. A daily base above $1.55 invites a retest of $1.78 and, if macro conditions cooperate, the $2.00 region and the 200-day EMA near $2.16. In the negative case, $1.35 fails, $1.30 gives way on a daily close, and price slides into $1.25 on rising volume. With leverage still tilted long, that break likely comes with another liquidation cascade. A breach of $1.25 then points to $1.20 as the next magnet. Below $1.20, the market shifts from a top-side consolidation into a full distribution pattern, and talk will move from “correction” to “multi-month reset.”

XRP-USD – Tactical View: Bias, Levels And Risk Management

Short term, the structure is biased to the downside as long as XRP-USD trades below $1.40–$1.43 and remains capped by the falling 20-day EMA near $1.55. Derivatives show shrinking participation and still-crowded longs, which is not what you want to see if you are betting on a quick reversal. Medium term, the $1.25–$1.35 band offers a high-risk accumulation window for those who accept volatility and believe that regulatory clarity, tokenization growth and potential new XRP products will unlock another cycle higher. From a straight decision framework, the current setup leans toward a cautious Hold: short-term tone is bearish inside a larger consolidation, upside catalysts are visible but not yet active, and the key levels to track are $1.30 and $1.25 on the downside, $1.40, $1.43 and then $1.55 on the upside. A break above $1.43 with strong volume would justify upgrading that stance toward a speculative Buy on strength; a clean loss of $1.25 would shift the bias toward a Sell until a new, lower base is built.

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