Stock Market Today - Dow Rises to 46,075 as Nasdaq Falls; Fed Decision Looms Over Wall Street

Dow Jones (^DJI) Extends Gains While Nasdaq (^IXIC) Stalls Ahead of Fed Rate Cut

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) surged 317 points to 46,075.35, up 0.69%, outperforming both the S&P 500 (^GSPC), which slipped 0.12% to 5,602.18, and the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), which fell 0.53% to 17,812.42. This divergence highlights a clear sector rotation away from high-valuation technology toward consumer and retail-linked equities as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut of 2025. With Wall Street pricing in a 96% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction, the question is no longer whether rates will be cut, but how many more moves the Fed will commit to through the remainder of the year.

Federal Reserve Decision: Rate Cut Expected at 2:00 PM ET

Markets are braced for Jerome Powell’s announcement this afternoon. A 25-basis-point cut will take the federal funds rate down from 5.25% to 5.00%, the first easing since the tightening cycle that began in 2022. Fed officials face a dilemma: inflation remains 1% above the 2% target, yet the labor market shows signs of cooling. Housing permits declined to 1.31 million in August, down 3.7% from July, while housing starts fell 8.5% to 1.307 million—both missing consensus expectations of 1.37 million. Unemployment claims have been edging higher, feeding into expectations of policy easing. Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET, and especially the dot plot projections, will define whether markets should expect two or three cuts in 2025. Traders know that Fed credibility is under attack politically, with Trump intensifying pressure on Powell, and new FOMC voting member Stephen Miran likely to tilt policy debates in a hawkish direction.

Retail Sector Rally: Walmart (WMT) and XRT ETF Push Higher

The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) climbed 1.02% to $88.38, its strongest level since January 2022, and is now on pace for a five-month winning streak not seen since mid-2020. Walmart (WMT) rose 2% to $69.14, notching an all-time high as investors see consumer discretionary spending benefiting most from lower borrowing costs. Other retailers including Dillard’s (DDS), Casey’s General Stores (CASY), and Sally Beauty (SBH) all touched fresh 52-week highs. Mid-tier chains such as Kohl’s (KSS) at $28.90 (+1.8%) and Etsy (ETSY) at $82.40 (+3.1%) also participated, reinforcing the narrative that easing credit conditions could unleash pent-up consumer demand.

Technology Sector Pressured: Nvidia (NVDA) Falls on China Ban

Semiconductors were at the center of selling pressure after the Financial Times reported that China’s internet regulator ordered firms such as Alibaba (BABA) and ByteDance to halt orders of Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D, a chip designed specifically for China. Nvidia (NVDA) fell 3.11% to $169.41, wiping out billions in market cap. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) slipped 1.2% to $133.75, reflecting contagion across the semiconductor complex. Meanwhile, Alibaba (BABA) jumped 2.64% to $166.49 after securing China Unicom as a client for its AI accelerators, while Baidu (BIDU) soared 8.0% to $159.23 on optimism that domestic AI demand will offset U.S. chip sanctions. This bifurcation signals an intensifying U.S.-China tech war that could structurally favor Chinese-listed equities over their U.S. peers in the AI supply chain.

Corporate Movers: Lyft (LYFT), Uber (UBER), Workday (WDAY), and Oracle (ORCL)

Lyft (LYFT) shares surged 15% to $18.22 after striking a deal with Alphabet’s Waymo (GOOGL) to launch robotaxi services in Nashville in 2026. The development underscores Lyft’s ability to secure strategic partnerships even as Uber dominates ride-hailing. By contrast, Uber (UBER) fell 5% to $92.93, pressured by fears of losing market share in autonomous mobility. In enterprise software, Workday (WDAY) climbed 7.73% to $235.93 after Elliott Management disclosed a $2 billion stake and backed the company’s leadership while expanding its buyback program by $4 billion. Conversely, Oracle (ORCL) declined 2.94% to $297.61 after an extraordinary rally added $193 billion in market cap within weeks. Valuations now surpass those of most S&P 500 peers, raising bubble concerns given Oracle’s reliance on OpenAI-related contracts and a pending $300 billion deal.

IPO Spotlight: StubHub (STUB) Debuts at $23.50

The IPO market reopened with StubHub (STUB) listing at $23.50 per share, giving the ticket platform a valuation of $8.6 billion. The offering comes amid revived IPO activity, with companies like Klarna (KLAR) leading a $4 billion wave of listings last week. While tariff-driven volatility earlier in 2025 delayed offerings, today’s debut signals a thawing environment as the Fed begins easing.

Commodities: Gold and Bitcoin Hold Investor Interest

Gold futures (GC=F) slipped 0.17% to $3,718.70 per ounce, yet strategists at Deutsche Bank reaffirmed their $4,000 per ounce forecast by 2026, citing robust central bank demand and favorable FX dynamics. On the digital asset side, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) traded nearly unchanged at $115,860.61, consolidating after a 120% YTD surge. Eric Trump, co-founder of American Bitcoin (ABTC), highlighted sovereign wealth fund inflows into mining capacity, a sign that institutional money continues to drive the crypto narrative.

Asian and European Indices React to Fed and Tariffs

Globally, the Nikkei 225 (^N225) closed at 44,790.38, down 0.25% as auto exports to the U.S. fell 13.8% year-on-year amid tariffs. South Korea’s Kospi (^KS11) declined 0.96% to 3,415.71, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (^AXJO) dropped 0.7% to 8,812.80. By contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH.HK) surged 4.22% to 6,334.24, its highest since 2021, with Baidu (BIDU), JD.com (JD), and SMIC (0981.HK) leading gains. European equities mirrored the cautious tone, with Germany’s DAX Index and France’s CAC 40 trading flat as investors awaited Powell’s guidance.

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