Why to Buy Baidu Stock (NASDAQ:BIDU) ?

Why to Buy Baidu Stock (NASDAQ:BIDU) ?

Key Insights into Baidu's Growth Potential, AI Innovations, and Financial Strength | That's TradingNEWS

TradingNEWS Archive 7/3/2024 1:01:41 PM
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Baidu’s Digital Marketing Growth

Baidu's (NASDAQ:BIDU) digital marketing business remains a cornerstone of its revenue, generating 18.5B Chinese Yuan ($2.56B) in Q1'24. This represents a year-over-year growth rate of 3%, indicating steady progress despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. The company's operating income from this segment was 5.48B Chinese Yuan ($760M), showcasing a 10% Y/Y growth rate. This robust performance underscores Baidu's dominant position in China's search engine market, which continues to benefit from increased digital advertising spend.

AI Innovations and Autonomous Driving

Baidu's transition to an AI-first company is marked by significant investments in its large language model, ERNIE. This model enhances Baidu’s consumer and business segments, improving user experience and advertiser ROI. Additionally, Baidu's autonomous driving technology, Apollo Go, reported 826,000 rides in Q1 2024, reflecting a 25% Y/Y growth. The robotaxi service is approaching unit economics breakeven, particularly in Wuhan, where it operates 24/7.

Financial Performance and Free Cash Flow

Baidu’s free cash flow remains strong, with significant contributions from its video streaming platform iQIYI, which has over 500M monthly active users. iQIYI contributed $127M to Baidu's consolidated free cash flow in the latest quarter. Overall, Baidu achieved a free cash flow margin of 13% in Q1, aligning with its goal of approximately $2.5B in free cash flow for the year. This financial strength supports the potential for increased stock buybacks and capital returns to shareholders.

Valuation and Market Sentiment

Despite Baidu’s strong financial performance and strategic initiatives, the stock trades at a relatively low valuation. With a current P/E ratio of 7.4X, Baidu offers an earnings yield of 14%, significantly lower than its historical average P/E of 14.8X. This undervaluation is largely due to persistent investor skepticism towards Chinese tech companies. However, this presents a potential upside for long-term investors if the market re-evaluates Baidu's intrinsic value.

Insider Transactions and Institutional Holdings

Insider ownership in Baidu is significant, with CEO Yanhong Li holding 19% of shares outstanding. This aligns management’s interests with those of shareholders. Institutional investors own 42% of Baidu’s shares, indicating confidence among professional investors. Major institutions include The Vanguard Group, Inc., and BlackRock, Inc., which hold 3.2% and 3.1% of shares, respectively.

Risks and Challenges

Investing in Baidu comes with several risks, primarily related to its operations in China. Geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S., regulatory scrutiny, and currency risks are key factors that could impact Baidu’s performance. Additionally, the company's reliance on its online marketing business, which accounted for 59% of total revenues in Q1'24, poses a risk if growth in this segment stalls.

Long-Term Growth Potential

Despite these risks, Baidu's strong position in the digital marketing and AI sectors, coupled with its financial health, positions it well for long-term growth. The company’s strategic initiatives in AI and autonomous driving, along with a potential rebound in the Chinese consumer market, could drive sustained revenue and profit growth. Analysts maintain a positive outlook, with an average price target of $150, indicating a 70% upside from current levels.

AI Integration and Future Prospects

Baidu is not merely dabbling in AI; it is making significant strides to integrate AI across its suite of products and services. The company’s large language model, ERNIE, is being leveraged to enhance search results, improve advertising efficiency, and bolster its cloud service offerings. ERNIE has already amassed 300 million users, demonstrating the rapid adoption and potential impact of Baidu’s AI initiatives.

Furthermore, Baidu's focus on autonomous driving technology through its Apollo Go service positions it favorably in the burgeoning market for autonomous vehicles. With a compound annual growth rate of 32% projected for autonomous driving systems, Baidu is well-placed to capitalize on this growth. Apollo Go's 826,000 rides in Q1 2024 and its progress towards unit economics breakeven underscore the viability and scalability of this service.

Financial Resilience and Shareholder Returns

Baidu's robust free cash flow generation is a key pillar supporting its long-term growth and shareholder returns. The company achieved a free cash flow margin of 13% in Q1 2024, and its video streaming platform iQIYI contributed positively with $127 million in free cash flow. This financial resilience enables Baidu to consider strategic stock buybacks, similar to Alibaba's recent capital return initiatives.

In February 2023, Baidu authorized a $5 billion share repurchase program, and as of mid-May 2024, it had repurchased $898 million of shares. With the stock trading at a significant discount, accelerating the pace of share buybacks could enhance shareholder value and signal confidence in the company's future prospects.

Market Valuation and Investment Appeal

Baidu’s current valuation presents an attractive opportunity for investors. The stock trades at a TTM GAAP P/E ratio of 10.97 and a non-GAAP P/E ratio of 7.23, significantly lower than the industry average. This undervaluation is compounded by Baidu trading at a discount to its book value, with total assets of $57.4 billion and a market cap of $30.3 billion.

The stock's depressed valuation provides a considerable margin of safety for investors. With an FCF yield in the mid-teens, Baidu could deliver solid returns even in the absence of significant growth. However, should the company achieve its growth potential, driven by its AI initiatives and recovery in the Chinese economy, the upside for Baidu’s stock could be substantial.

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