XRP Price Forecast: $1.40 Balances Between $1.00 Washout and $1.76 Squeeze

XRP-USD – trading around $1.40 as the market cuts the hype down to size

XRP-USD is trading roughly in the $1.39–$1.43 range after the market destroyed a big chunk of the late-2025 optimism. Price now sits more than 40% below the early-January spike toward $2.40 and close to 60% under the July 2025 zone around $3.40. The move reflects two simultaneous hits: a crypto-wide drawdown that wiped almost $2 trillion in market value since October and a clear reset of expectations from the institutional side. The token is no longer priced for an imminent parabolic move, but the long-duration story is still very much alive in the background.

XRP-USD – Standard Chartered’s slash from $8 to $2.80 without killing the $28 dream

Standard Chartered has taken its end-2026 target for XRP from $8 down to $2.80, a cut of roughly 65–70%. At the same time, the bank kept its 2030 target at $28. That combination tells you exactly how they see the curve: short term, the sector overshot and needs to digest; long term, XRP-USD still sits in the same structural basket as Ethereum when it comes to stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets. The downgrade didn’t happen in isolation. The same desk cut Bitcoin from $150,000 to $100,000, Ethereum from $7,000 to $4,000 and Solana from $250 to $135. The message is simple: the recent drawdown is not treated as noise; it is a full repricing of digital assets after one of the ugliest corrections in the last four years. For XRP itself, $2.80 by end-2026 still implies a strong upside from $1.40, but it validates that the $8 numbers that were thrown around were not realistic for this cycle.

XRP-USD – ETF boom, ETF hangover and what the flow data is really saying

The first week of 2026 showed how quickly institutional capital can swing. XRP-USD ripped roughly 25% higher as ETF vehicles backed by the token saw assets climb toward $1.6 billion by January 5. That rush of demand came after the August 2025 settlement with the U.S. SEC removed the biggest regulatory block and opened the gate for regulated structures. The picture now is very different. Assets in those XRP ETFs have cooled to around $1.0 billion, a 40% decline that tracks the spot drawdown. That is not a collapse of the product; it is a clean illustration of how performance-chasing money behaves when volatility spikes against it. Early allocations that chased strength above $2 turned into forced selling and redemptions as price broke lower. The critical point is that the ETF complex is damaged, not dead. With roughly a billion dollars still sitting in those vehicles and a big bank still putting $2.80 and $28 on the board, the ETF structure continues to anchor institutional exposure to XRP-USD. The hangover phase is simply cleaning up the excesses of the launch phase.

XRP-USD – Macro, PCE and why $1.43 trades like an inflation option

Right now XRP is trading like a high-beta macro instrument wrapped in a crypto narrative. The December PCE print due on Feb. 20 is the next hard catalyst. The November PCE and core PCE numbers both came in at 2.8%, hotter than markets wanted and a clear signal that the disinflation path had stalled. That data forced investors to trim aggressive rate-cut expectations and fed directly into the risk-off move across crypto. Real-time models such as Truflation are now pointing to a very different picture, with headline PCE around 1.54% and core near 1.94%, both well under the official November read. If the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirms even part of that cooling, it restores a narrative where the Fed can cut more comfortably later in 2026. That environment weakens the dollar, supports duration and typically bids up assets like XRP-USD. That is why price is coiling between about $1.35 and $1.50. The market is effectively treating the current level as a binary zone: a soft PCE print opens the door toward $1.60 and beyond, while a hot print that contradicts the alternative inflation gauges pulls XRP back toward $1.35 and reopens the stress zone near $1.20.

XRP-USD – Daily chart: from $2.40 spike to $1.20 flush and a heavy consolidation

Technically, the daily structure on XRP-USD is still a downtrend. The early-January shoot-up toward $2.40 failed and left behind a classic lower high. Since then, the tape has printed a sequence of lower highs and lower lows that culminated in a capitulation wick toward roughly $1.20. That flush attracted real demand and triggered a sharp rebound, but the rebound has not yet changed the broader structure. At the moment, price is locked into a $1.35–$1.50 consolidation band. The nine-day moving average around $1.43 is trying to flatten, while the 21-day average near $1.47 still leans down above price. That pair shows exactly where the balance stands: short-term selling pressure is fading, but the medium-term bias remains negative until XRP can clear the $1.47–$1.50 cluster and hold above it. The Balance of Power indicator around –0.09 confirms that bears still have a slight edge. They are no longer in full control as they were during the early-February dump, but they dictate direction until a series of higher highs appears above $1.47 and then $1.60.

XRP-USD – Local structure break, volume cluster and the attempt to form a higher low

On the four-hour chart, the micro-structure is more constructive. XRP-USD has already invalidated its immediate bearish pattern and rotated back into a high-volume support zone that combines the point of control, the value area high and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. When those three sit on top of each other, you know you are at a price where meaningful size traded previously. Those areas tend to act as magnets and defence levels when bigger players still believe the thesis is intact. XRP dropping back into that region and starting to stabilise tells you that the one-way selling phase has ended for now. The market is trying to build a higher low inside that volume pocket. As long as price holds above the value area low, the structure supports an accumulation narrative rather than another distribution leg. If that higher low completes, the most logical upside target becomes the $1.70–$1.76 band, which lines up with prior rejection and high-timeframe resistance. A clean push into that zone would confirm that the local downtrend has flipped into a recovery segment.

XRP-USD – Falling channel since mid-2025 and the $1.00 downside magnet

Zooming out, XRP is still trading inside a falling channel that has been in place since roughly July 2025. The upper boundary of that channel has capped recent rallies around $1.50, while the lower boundary now runs through the $1.00 area. The last breakout attempt above $1.50 failed with a long-wick rejection, a textbook “sell the bounce” signature when the dominant trend is still pointing down. From that failure, price slid around 6–7% to the $1.42 area. All major daily EMAs – 20, 50, 100 and 200 – are angled lower and acting as stacked dynamic resistance. That alignment keeps the path of least resistance pointed south. If sellers decide to press their advantage and macro data does not help, XRP-USD can easily extend another 25–30% lower into the $1.00 trendline to complete a full channel test. That scenario is fully consistent with Standard Chartered’s more cautious 2026 stance. It does not break the long-dated $2.80 or $28 story, but it matters for any capital that cannot tolerate a further 30% drawdown from here.

XRP-USD – Sentiment, funding and the danger of optimism arriving too early

While price has stayed heavy, the tone around XRP on social platforms has turned sharply more positive. Bitcoin and Ethereum discussions have skewed negative, with frustration and bearish takes dominating the feed. XRP is the opposite: mentions have become more upbeat and are now at the best balance in more than a month. That optimism is tied to narrative wins like new partnerships, including Aviva Investors exploring tokenization on the XRP Ledger and expansions in custody and institutional infrastructure. Derivatives and positioning data show a more nuanced picture. Funding rates on XRP-USD have dropped sharply, open interest has fallen and short positions have taken more of the book. That mix can produce violent moves in both directions. If macro data and the broader crypto tape roll over again, the combination of renewed retail optimism and still-fragile structure can trigger one more air-pocket lower as late longs are forced out. If instead the PCE print lands on the softer side and risk sentiment improves, the same short positioning can fuel a sharp squeeze in the direction of $1.60 first and then $1.70–$1.76.

XRP-USD – Structural backdrop: tokenization push, DEX evolution and regulation

Beyond the chart, the structural case around XRP is materially stronger than it was before the SEC fight ended. The August 2025 settlement removed the largest regulatory overhang, allowed U.S. institutions to participate more freely and unlocked the ETF channel that now anchors a portion of demand. Recent developments show that the project is not relying only on speculative flows. The partnership activity around tokenizing traditional fund structures on the XRP Ledger and the rollout of a permissioned DEX designed for compliance-sensitive venues both push XRP deeper into the real financial plumbing. Coinbase’s move to accept XRP, along with DOGE, ADA and LTC, as collateral in its loan program is another signal that larger platforms now treat XRP as acceptable security rather than a legal headache. On the policy side, the U.S. Clarity Act remains stuck in the Senate, limiting how far the repricing can go in the very near term. But compared with the pre-settlement era, the regulatory direction of travel is clearly more favourable to XRP-USD, not less.

XRP-USD – Scenario map between a $1.00 washout, a $1.70–$1.76 squeeze and a path back to $2.80

From here, the short-term bear case is clean. PCE comes in hot, yields push higher, the dollar strengthens and risk assets take another leg down. In that environment, the falling channel remains untouched, support at around $1.34 gives way, $1.22 fails next and the market hunts for liquidity around $1.00 where the lower trendline sits. That is roughly a 28–30% slide from current levels and fits the cautious stance big banks are now broadcasting. A more balanced path sees PCE confirm at least part of the cooling that alternative inflation trackers are flagging. Fed expectations then shift back toward cuts later in 2026, volatility in rates compresses and XRP-USD is allowed to complete its higher low inside the volume pocket. In that case, price grinds above $1.47, flips the 21-day moving average from resistance to support and builds toward $1.60 first, then the $1.70–$1.76 resistance zone. A stronger upside scenario needs both macro support and policy progress: concrete movement on U.S. crypto market structure, renewed ETF inflows and a weaker dollar. That is the type of environment where the early-January $2.40 region gets retested and the $2.80 end-2026 target starts to look conservative instead of ambitious, with the long-dated $28 call re-entering the conversation.

XRP-USD – Verdict: aggressive Buy with $1.00 as a hard invalidation line

Taken together, XRP is not in a comfortable place, but it is far from broken. A major bank has taken the near-term target from $8 down to $2.80 yet still keeps $28 on the table for 2030. ETF assets have fallen from $1.6 billion to about $1.0 billion but remain meaningful. Price sits around $1.40 after a heavy slide from $2.40, with a clear technical risk toward $1.00 and a realistic trading range that extends to $1.70–$1.76 if the higher-low attempt succeeds. At this spot, the reward-to-risk profile still favours capital that understands it is buying volatility, not stability. From roughly $1.40, using a strict stop under the $1.00 channel floor risks around 30% against an initial upside of 20–25% into the $1.70–$1.76 band and significantly more if macro and regulation tilt in favour. The stance on XRP-USD from these levels is a clear Buy with a bullish bias, but only as long as price holds above $1.00. Dips into the $1.35 volume cluster are accumulation territory as long as that line stays intact. A decisive break through $1.00 would invalidate the current setup and shift the capital allocation argument toward waiting for a completely new base before re-engaging.

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